Wimbledon Semifinals Preview

Alcaraz v Medvedev—Sinner v Djokovic

Friday is men’s semifinals day. Three of the top four seeds have advanced with eighth seed Jannik Sinner making his maiden slam semifinal. It’s very likely we end up playing both these matches under the roof tomorrow given the weather forecast:

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Alcaraz v Medvedev (H2H stands at 1-1)

I covered their Indian Wells final back in March here. Before that match, I tweeted what I thought would be the keys for each player:

This mostly played out. We saw Alcaraz—in a complete 180 from the Sinner match in the prior round—willing to take the pace off and roll higher, slower backhands crosscourt. We also saw Medvedev quickly looking to exit out of forehand cross rallies by taking it line, such is the firepower and danger of Carlitos’ forehand. In the point that plays out in the following two gifs, note how high Alcaraz rolls the backhand, before taking a line ball to a big target.

Then Medvedev quickly exits the forehand battle by taking his own forehand down the line, but it’s a little too close to the middle, and Alcaraz only needs to see Medvedev camped on the forehand side to pull the trigger.

Where Medvedev is camped in the red circle is essentially the middle of the court if he had hit his forehand crosscourt (the “middle” of the court gets pulled farther as the crosscourt angles available to your opponent become more extreme). Here we can see Alcaraz has a sharp backhand angle crosscourt available, so Medvedev would need to be splitting closer to the yellow circle. Medvedev needed to hit his line forehand with either: (a) more authority, so that Alcaraz wouldn’t have time to set up and pull the trigger; or (b) with more height and depth so he would have more time to recover.

In saying that, the grass of Wimbledon is a completely different surface to the gritty court of Indian Wells (which is as close to mimicking a clay court as a hardcourt could get). Alcaraz got a lot of purchase with his kick serve and heavy forehand at IW, and Medvedev’s flat strokes didn’t get through that court at all. On grass, the Russian’s rally ball will stay lower and skid through more, making it harder to attack. Alcaraz will have to use his line backhand (as he did well against Rune) as well as slice backhand, to navigate out of the backhand crosscourt pattern (where he can often bleed errors and where Medvedev has a distinct advantage to constrict the Spaniard).

• If I am Medvedev, the ideal rally is trading backhands from B to B. Get Carlos hitting his flat outside setup backhand off low and flat balls and extract errors from that shot (which he will get no doubt). Don’t give Alcaraz too much width, height, or angle. Constrict him in every way by playing flat, low, deep, and middle. The hardest place to create something on a tennis court is behind the baseline from the middle. How should Alcaraz counter this? He needs to take big targets and redirect his backhand line (something he’s pretty good at) and also use his slice backhand up the line. Medvedev won’t hurt you too much off a low slice into his forehand, and it gets Medvedev further up the court and hitting up into a higher strike zone where Alcaraz can flatten out his strokes with more authority and consistency.

• If I am Alcaraz, the ideal rally is trading D/C to D/C; make it a match of forehands. Alcaraz can create a lot of speed, spin, and width with his forehand. It pushes Medvedev further back, opening up the drop shot (although Medvedev’s ball will be lower on grass, so the drop shot will have to be well chosen). How should Medvedev counter this? As mentioned above, Medvedev needs to try and steer this to deep B. Keep Alcaraz pinned behind the baseline in the middle of the court hitting backhands. Reduce the Spaniard’s angles or ability to play inside the baseline. Medvedev did a good job of this against Sinner in the Miami final, being agnostic with direction as long as it was middling, and he ended up with higher average forehand and backhand speeds than Sinner.

Another key aspect of this match will revolve around Medvedev’s return position and how Alcaraz looks to exploit it on his plus-one ball. In Alcaraz’s quarterfinal against Rune, the Dane stood quite close to the baseline, so we didn’t see a lot of serve-volley from Alcaraz (who used body serves to great effect to jam Rune, especially on the second serve). But as soon as Rune did drop back (on a point midway through the third set) Alcaraz serve-volleyed immediately. Medvedev’s deep return position can be exposed by a good serve-volleyer, but too often we see players volley deep, allowing the Russian to use his extreme reach and speed to get a topspin play on the next ball:

We saw Sinner get burned in a similar fashion against Medvedev in the Miami final, but Alcaraz has better feel and awareness in the forecourt than Sinner, and he played the short volley to perfection against Medvedev in Indian Wells:

This is how you serve-volley against a deep court position. Medvedev can’t get a topspin play on the second ball as he recovers from a deep position, so it forces him into cat-and-mouse exchanges with a continental grip.

Using the short volley will be key tomorrow for Alcaraz, and he will be aided by the lower and softer bounce Wimbledon affords. This also goes for the serve and drop shot plus-one Alcaraz is known for.¹

For Medvedev, he needs to make a high percentage of first serves and be aggressive with his forehand when the opportunity presents itself. He can’t win by being passive. I still think Alcaraz is vulnerable if you rush his forehand (as I touched on most recently against Djokovic at Roland Garros) but Medvedev doesn’t have the best offensive forehand, so he needs to find the balance between reducing errors and not giving Alcaraz too much time to create.

Alcaraz has done a great job neutralizing big servers this tournament (Jarry, Berrettini, Rune) and against Medvedev I would like to see him block first serve returns early and feel out how confident and aggressive Medvedev is on the plus-one ball; get in a lot of early exchanges on the Russian’s service games and reduce Medvedev’s free points. I thought Alcaraz did that well at key points in the Berrettini match, and against Daniil—who has a far weaker plus-one ability—he should look to do it again. I also felt Alcaraz was too aggressive on big points against Rune; he needs to be more disciplined early on against Medvedev—especially if he gets 30-30 looks or break-point chances.

I think this match is going to be a lot closer than their Indian Wells encounter. Medvedev played poorly there and Alcaraz played well, plus the surface aided Alcaraz’s game far more, so it was a bit of a blowout. On grass, I think it evens the keel a little bit because Medvedev’s ball is going to be harder to attack and he will get more reward for his flat strokes and bigger serve. It’s going to be a great contrast between Medvedev looking to hit flat, deep, and not miss, and Alcaraz, who will jump on chances to create pace, width, and forecourt options. The constrictor versus the creator. Who am I backing and why?

Because of the difficulty in returning that deep on grass, plus Alcaraz’s numerous attacking options in the forecourt (which are amplified on grass) I think the Spaniard will find too many ways to win points.

Prediction: Alcaraz in 4

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Sinner v Djokovic (H2H stands at 2-0 to Djokovic)

The last time these two played was in the quarterfinals of Wimbledon last year. Sinner led two sets to love before Djokovic stormed back to win the last three sets convincingly.

Sinner is often compared to Djokovic when making style comparisons. It’s true that the young Italian has similar traits: he slides into both forehand and backhand groundstrokes (even on grass) in a form uncannily similar to Djokovic (they even endorse the same white and black Head Speed racquet). But while outward appearances may be similar, at the core of each player there is a different mentality and playstyle.

Djokovic is a counterpuncher. Sinner is an aggressive baseliner.

Djokovic excels at absorbing pace; Sinner at creating it.

Djokovic changes direction better than any player in history. Sinner has incredible power and spin, but mainly through the crosscourt channel.

Their swing takebacks are also different (and reflect their style tendencies and tradeoffs). Djokovic has a more traditional takeback (the “Ferris Wheel”). Sinner employs the in-vogue outside setup (the merry-go-round):

Here the racquet tip starts outside (pointed toward the press gallery) before wildly “flipping” into the dynamic slot (that place all forehands eventually get to prior to pulling through. This gif finishes in that slot).

Djokovic uses more gravity and has less to undo. It takes a little longer to set up in this way, but it makes for impeccable timing (note the more upright racquet head in the thumbnail below:

We’ve seen how well Djokovic can handle and redirect pace with his forehand in recent weeks:

The Djokovic backhand needs no introduction. His ability to change direction on that thing has been showcased lately—perhaps more than ever, given the styles of many youngsters today (big forehands that hug the ad-court)—in many of his recent slam performances: against Paul and Tsitsipas in Australia, Alcaraz at Roland Garros, and Rublev here in the quarterfinals.

When it comes to match strategy tomorrow, there’s less clarity (at least to me) in what they both will look to do. That’s why I’ve opened with some technical differences. The weakest shot on the court tomorrow will be Sinner’s running forehand. That can overheat at times, and I use that term because it can certainly get hot and dominate points. It’s by no means a clear weakness in men’s tennis, but juxtaposed against Djokovic’s baseline game, it is. But there’s a good chance this plays out indoors tomorrow. Who does that favour?

I think it favours Sinner.

Sinner is going to be the aggressor tomorrow. Indoors helps to eliminate some of those pesky variables—the wind, the sun/shadows—that make timing the forehand and pulling the trigger on his shots a little easier. Djokovic is no slouch indoors, but it does tend to favour risk-takers a little more. Four of Sinner’s seven titles have come on indoor hardcourts so far in his career. So all in all I think it helps Sinner more than it helps Djokovic.

On serve there is a clear advantage to Djokovic, but I will point out that Sinner has changed his serve again in recent weeks, and his performance at Wimbledon has been pretty darn good. Here’s his serve performance this tournament, compared to his Wimbledon run last year:

A few things to keep in mind. Sinner has played some matches indoors here (I’m not sure about last year). Second, it’s still a small data set and it’s possible he was tactically holding back or going for more against certain opponents (for example, Sinner served 15 aces against Schwartzman this year—one of the shortest players on tour—and only 2 against Isner last year, who is one of the tallest players). Still, this is an encouraging sign for Sinner—especially the reduction in double faults—and it will be absolutely key that he has a great serving day if he is to pull off the upset.

The other question mark on the Italian has been fitness. He’s often struggled to keep his body together for stretches at a time, but here he’s had a relatively light tournament and has had the benefit of two days’ rest. He should be able to go the distance. Does his relatively easy path mean he’s actually a little undercooked? Sometimes that tough first-week battle really steels a player’s nerves and form for later rounds. So who am I backing and why?

My head says Djokovic but my gut says Sinner. I feel like there’s a few tailwinds for the young Italian. If it’s indoors with his improved (yet truly untested) serve, I think that helps him in holding, but also in timing his forehand and playing his naturally aggressive game.

Sinner’s been this guy who has only ever really taken incremental steps in his career, but he’s been taking steps nonetheless, and he’s showcased a mentality that has been willing to change and adapt to improve. We’ve seen serve changes, more use of the drop shots, and the addition of Darren Cahill to the coaching staff (which I think has also helped). Does he need to play great? Yes. Does he need to win the first set if he’s to win? Highly likely. If he gets behind early it could be a blowout. Has Djokovic been amazing this tournament? Not particularly. But does he usually turn it on late in a slam? Yes.

Of all the current players that can beat Djokovic, Sinner is right up there for me (and probably the best bet of the three remaining players on grass). He has a very strong and balanced game off both wings. That’s usually been a prerequisite if you want to beat him in a slam (Medvedev, Thiem, Nishikori, Wawrinka, and Berdych are non Big-4 examples who had very balanced baseline games). Djokovic’s redirected backhand up the line is amplified when you try to run around and use your forehand from the wide ad-court. Sinner doesn’t do that much, especially on grass, he just holds the middle and crushes his own backhand. So in that respect I think the backhand line for Djokovic won’t play as big a role tomorrow as it has in other matches that I highlighted at the start of this piece.

For me the two keys are going to be first serve percentage and who wins the forehand battle. Djokovic likes to trade forehands early. He loves to show great forehand players early on—Rublev, Alcaraz, Tsitsipas—that he’s happy to attack their strength. I wouldn’t be surprised to see something similar tomorrow in the early exchanges.

This prediction is conditional to them playing indoors.

Prediction: Sinner in 5

As always let’s hope all players bring their best and put on a show.

1. one advantage of the deep return position is that you have momentum carrying you forward when recovering. The Alcaraz drop shot has to be great to be effective, as Medvedev will be recovering across and forward from his position; momentum will help him react to drop shots after the return.