“Sinner has changed his serve again in recent weeks, and his performance at Wimbledon has been pretty darn good.“
In 2022 at Grand Slams 7% of all Sinner’s serves were aces. This year at Wimbledon almost 14% of all his serves were aces. Such a huge difference is not based on chance I believe. He is definitely doing something different. Let’s see how his serve will hold up against Djokovic.
If Sinner can keep that level of serving up, Djokovic will face a very different Sinner compared to the one he faced at Wimbledon in 2022. (6% of Sinner’s serves were aces)
Surprised to see a Sinner in 5 pick. It feels like it's virtually impossible to beat Djokovic in 5 these days. If he's good enough to grab 2 sets, whether it's from down or up, he usually seals the deal. If Sinner wins I would predict 3 or 4.
Also surprised you've complimented Sinners serve. I guess he's improved his ace:DF ratio but his 1st serve% in is still not great. So far he's gotten: 69%, 57%, 49%, 55%, 55%. Whereas Novak is at: 63%, 69%, 64%, 71%, 62%. I think that will be the key to Novak winning this match as it's really been the key to Novak's late career success. That serve has been extremely clutch for him and I think Sinners inconsistent 1st serve won't do him favors in keeping up his aggression or holding onto leads and serving under pressure.
First-serve percentage as a blanket match stat isn't all that telling though. More important to make them on 30-30 and deuce/ad points. But I would assume Novak is great in that regard anyway.
I have a new theory of how Djokovic seems always to "escape" with a victory--his latest against Hurkacz where he really should have lost. Djokovic winning is an "attractor state" in the universe. Technical analysis may point to a Sinner win, but laws of physics will pull the outcome towards the Djokovic basin of attraction.
“Sinner has changed his serve again in recent weeks, and his performance at Wimbledon has been pretty darn good.“
In 2022 at Grand Slams 7% of all Sinner’s serves were aces. This year at Wimbledon almost 14% of all his serves were aces. Such a huge difference is not based on chance I believe. He is definitely doing something different. Let’s see how his serve will hold up against Djokovic.
If Sinner can keep that level of serving up, Djokovic will face a very different Sinner compared to the one he faced at Wimbledon in 2022. (6% of Sinner’s serves were aces)
Surprised to see a Sinner in 5 pick. It feels like it's virtually impossible to beat Djokovic in 5 these days. If he's good enough to grab 2 sets, whether it's from down or up, he usually seals the deal. If Sinner wins I would predict 3 or 4.
Also surprised you've complimented Sinners serve. I guess he's improved his ace:DF ratio but his 1st serve% in is still not great. So far he's gotten: 69%, 57%, 49%, 55%, 55%. Whereas Novak is at: 63%, 69%, 64%, 71%, 62%. I think that will be the key to Novak winning this match as it's really been the key to Novak's late career success. That serve has been extremely clutch for him and I think Sinners inconsistent 1st serve won't do him favors in keeping up his aggression or holding onto leads and serving under pressure.
Good point!
First-serve percentage as a blanket match stat isn't all that telling though. More important to make them on 30-30 and deuce/ad points. But I would assume Novak is great in that regard anyway.
Man the Alcaraz backhand return was potent today.
"The top four seeds have advanced for the first time...."
Is Sinner a top 4 seed? Tsitsipas, Rune, Ruud are ahead of him?
No he isn't. Brain fade as a twitter user pointed out to me. Sorry Liam. I need a proofreader clearly! I've amended on the site if you check online
Interesting you have Sinner beating Djokovic and I somewhat agree. I'm very excited, best semis we've had in a minute. Thank you for this.
I really hope you put out a finals analysis at some point!
Incoming soon
Love it! Agree with everything! Sinner moves on grass is great to see, way better than Carlitos and Danill. This againts Nole on grass is a big key!
I have a new theory of how Djokovic seems always to "escape" with a victory--his latest against Hurkacz where he really should have lost. Djokovic winning is an "attractor state" in the universe. Technical analysis may point to a Sinner win, but laws of physics will pull the outcome towards the Djokovic basin of attraction.