Rune vs Sinner: Thoughts on the Dane

more than vibes — forehands — cartesian dualism — Nole v Carlos

Wimbledon 2023 had the tennis world buzzing with the prospect of the “new Big-3”. Alcaraz had just defeated Djokovic in a five-set classic for his second major title and Sinner was about to go on one of the greatest hardcourt tears of all time (and one that continues to this day). The third man was Holger Rune, and if you cast your eyes to the accounting department back then, you can see that the Dane was sitting precociously high.

The excitement wasn’t simply confined to him winning a lot. He was beating all the right players. In fact, up to Wimbledon 2023 Rune owned an enviable 7-3 winning record collectively against Djokovic (2-1), Alcaraz (1-1), Zverev (1-0), Medvedev (1-1), and Sinner (2-0).

Since then, Rune’s fortunes haven’t materialised as he and his fans expected. He’s gone 0-11 against the same tranche of players after today’s four set loss to Sinner 6/3 3/6 6/3 6/2 (highlights). He is a distant third man now, closer to tennis’ peloton than Sinner and Alcaraz. His results this week reflected that. Twice he needed a fifth set: in his opening round against Zhang, and in his third round win on Saturday night over Miomir Kecmanovic, requiring a comeback from 4-2 down in the fifth set as he battled leg cramps. Yesterday, a clearly ill Sinner was there for the taking, and Rune couldn’t find a way to capitalise in the important moments early in the third set. Now we have this:

How good is Joao though?! Source

What the hell happened?

I have written match analyses a couple of times about Holger (back in 2022, here and here, and last year in Brisbane here) and have always been bullish on him, even after a relatively poor 18 months. His developmental story is interesting in that his coach, Lars Christensen, came from an acrobatic background that made him keenly aware of the importance of biomechanics. In an interview Christensen once remarked that he tried to use the Big-3 as models for Holger, and I certainly see forehand fundamentals similar to Federer, where the racquet head sets up above the hand with an extended wrist, and the elbow extends into contact for that straight arm style. However, it’s the Dane’s weaker side, and I think the swing is sometimes guilty of being too compact; he can lack easy racquet speed and rhythm.

But why, exactly?

Rune’s setup is quite low and he takes the left hand off very early. He hits a straight arm forehand so he generates some speed as he extends the elbow into contact, but I think he needs to load the shot more to create a smoother and longer action.

I think it’s multifaceted, but in a nutshell, I think there is a lack of loading. When we compare Rune to Sinner, we can see that the Italian internally rotates his shoulder a lot more in the setup position, creating that side-pointing racquet¹:

The other difference is that Rune extends his elbow to hit a straight arm forehand, whereas Sinner has more of a throwing action in the forward swing, with more forearm supination (palm up) and less elbow extension. “Stiff” was the word Todd Woodbridge used on the comms today to describe Rune’s forehand. That comes through when you have short movements and straighter limbs.

Whilst Sinner’s racquet may move a little more violently in the above frames to reach the slot, when we think about his arm, there is very little movement in either the wrist or forearm joints themselves despite the liquid-whipped-wristy appearance of it to the naked eye; all the action comes from the shoulder, and if you ask any draftsman or artist how to draw bold straight lines they’ll tell you to draw from the shoulder.

Now this isn’t to say one technique is better than the other. We know of a certain young Spaniard who hits a straight arm forehand. Conveniently someone has already synced up an Alcaraz/Rune forehand clip for us to see the difference in preparation:

You can see Alcaraz use a higher loop with a more inverted racquet head. This is pretty long and may be why he can leak errors on that side when rushed, but it does provide a smooth transition of racquet speed into the forward swing. This shot here to me is where the difference is most clearly seen:

Look how straight Rune’s arm already is. Compared to Alcaraz he’s got less racquet drop to use, less elbow extension to use, and is less coiled in the torso by virtue of taking his left hand off early. It’s like every Rune forehand is a return-of-serve swing, instead of having multiple swing lengths depending on the situation.

Federer was one guy who did quite successfully use something nearly as abbreviated as Rune in the latter stages of his career, but crucially the Swiss had an eastern grip, meaning he could easily hit through the ball and create depth/achieve good timing with less racquet head speed. There’s a great resource on acecoach.com from Wayne Elderton/Louis Cayer that uses the principle of ‘P.A.S’ of the racquet (Path - Angle - Speed) to think about manipulating the tennis ball:

“The first step in manipulating any of the 5 Ball Control Characteristics is to imagine a 3-dimensional ‘Ball Control Box’ surrounding your impact of the ball. Whether groundstroke, volley, or serve, every shot in tennis requires the racquet to ‘pass’ through that box. I created the acronym P.A.S. to remember the key elements.”

— Wayne Elderton from acecoach.com

With respect to this particular forehand issue, my theory is that Rune’s overly abbreviated swing (= less speed) coupled with a semi-western grip (= steeper natural path, rather than level, as well as being naturally more rotational) means he can sometimes get caught swinging too slow and too steep. You either need more speed for that grip, or a more conservative grip for that swing.

“Every shot in tennis is a ‘recipe’ combining varying degrees of each P.A.S. Principle. Even a complex ball control like spin is simply a combination of the appropriate amounts P.A.S. For example, ‘topspin’ would result if the racquet path was low to high, the angle was vertical (or slightly ‘closed’), and the speed was fast.” — Wayne Elderton of acecoach.com

The question is what to do about it? I think there are multiple solutions. I mean, he’s leaving speed on the table in numerous areas. He could keep the left hand on the throat for longer like Sinner and Alcaraz to coil the torso more, he could lift the hitting elbow higher and invert the racquet without adding the left hand like Berdych, he could flex the elbow more in the setup like Verdasco, or he could simply have a higher takeback but keep the racquet tip up like del Potro. All these solutions add a little more length and would help provide more and smoother racquet speed.

All of these forehands are longer than Holger's

But I don’t think Rune’s forehand woes are all technical. Around this time last year I highlighted some sloppier footwork tendencies of the Dane with respect to his inside-in forehand. He was pulling off the shot defensively with his body, falling to his left with reverse-pivot footwork, but trying to drive the ball.

Here were the three that he made in that Brisbane final against Dimitrov.

Notice how much more balanced Rune is. He isn’t falling away from the shot. When he could step into the court with his left leg and scissor kick, or when didn’t pull his reverse-pivot too far, he hit the inside-in far better. Of course, these three he also had more time, so that’s where shot-selection becomes a factor; most of the above misses should have been hit inside-out, or with a lot more spin and height.

While it’s clear Rune thinks highly of his bronzed-statue legs, the harsh truth of the matter is that they aren’t providing him with a solid foundation for him to leverage all that firepower.

You can’t fire a cannon from a canoe.

Relatedly, I feel Rune has some sort of Cartesian dualistic paradox to his game, where in his mind he is a natural-born counterpuncher (especially on big points), but his body is built for 0-4 shot explosiveness. Guys who tend to excel in the longer exchanges have that lithe enduro mold to them — Sinner, Medvedev, Djokovic, Zverev — whereas Rune seems a little more Viking in the DNA. A little more strongman, a little less ‘Born to Run’. It’s possible (likely, even, given his history of fitness issues) that a lot of Rune’s shot selection and playstyle woes stem from the fact that he simply doesn’t have the legs to feed that counterpuncher wolf in him.

So we need more loading in the forehand with some more functional, less centrefold legs.

The backhand is legit. No notes. If there was a delpo equivalent for backhands it would be Rune’s:

Big swings and conservative racquet face/path.

Not only can the Dane hang with the best of them from the back on this wing, he can downright attack serves off it:

When you see that many scorched backhands from one match, you wonder how the hell this guy is languishing in the backwaters of ATP return stats. This post was an attempt to start answering that question, but it’s certainly not all of it: a carousel of coaching changes, some lacklustre efforts, and a childish disposition have all played a role in his self-sabotage as well.

For now, let’s just see if the Dane can build on this result, which is a step in the right direction.

I’ll be back with an update after Tuesday night’s blockbuster quarterfinal between Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic. The Serb leads the H2H 4-3. Some things I’m thinking about:

1. How aggressive does Novak go? His most recent win at the Paris Olympics was kind of a synthesis of Novak’s early-career strengths (incredible counter attacks and backhand trading) blended with late-career improvements (pinpoint serving). However, their last hardcourt match (ATP Finals 2023) was very much an aggressive Novak getting on the front foot early. If he’s fit, I think he leans into his old-school absorbing role from the ground, but the serve may decide this one.

2. Although this is played at night, the temperature is going to be hot and in the 20s all night. Novak thrives in the cooler, slower, lower bouncing evening AO. His last two matches have shown that is still the case. Alcaraz, on the other hand, hasn’t played at night yet this year. I would think he would prefer a day match that allows his forehand to get more kick.

3. How does the backhand battle unfold? Alcaraz’s newer, leaner, faster backhand has looked good so far, but let’s see it face the test of Djokovic’s modern rock.

   

   Looking forward to this one. See you in the comments. HC.

1. These gifs are from the YouTube channel “court level tennis”. Unbelievable videos of the pros from Liam Apilado.