I love your thoughts on the grip. I still like the idea of keeping the palm behind the ball. Just more options than the modern forehand. The leaky forehand was on full display in Alcaraz’s loss. How many wide deuce returns did he miss? Sampras/Lendl/Fef would never have missed that many.
In a perfect world I can imagine Rune evolving/adapting into an Agassi-esque player, playing aggressively not by forehands in the vein of Alcaraz/Rafa/Roger but by taking the ball early and taking time away from opponents. Could be a good way to be aggressive while making use of a compact stroke. Thoughts?
As always, a great analysis, and one I had been waiting for after months (if not years) discussing that FH with you and others. While I definitely agree with your analysis (couldn't disagree if I wanted to), I guess I gotta digress a bit and defend a player I like a lot from what felt a little too close to Felix Auger-Aliassime's character assassination you had written back in September 2022, which had made me lose any hope I had in him (I know it wasn't the sentiment for either, but as a fan it can feel harsh lol).
To me, Rune's struggles certainly aren't just vibes, there are clear identifiable patterns, but I still think most of those are tactical in nature, and his FH is still good enough that he could access the very elite in both control and power if he gave himself the chance to leverage it to its fullest. Now, why do I think that? Well, first off, all your previous articles about him and all the other boxes (left hand excepted), he hits. Second, the actual on-court results, going from some ripping return winners, to insane lockdown mode consistency, to absorbing ability from the baseline (which was on display against Sinner until the legs sort of ran away), generation too with some smokers he can pull off. Third, because while I'd like him more if he kept that left hand on longer, he is sort of allowed a technical inefficiency as long as it's not FAA level : after all, you could say Sinner and Alcaraz have some too, and only Djokovic ticks all boxes. And it was not too long ago he was close/if not ahead of them, with the very same forehand.
What happened since then? I think a couple of rythm breaker injuries and, as you mentioned, coaching instability, has sort of convinced him to play a much more aggressive gamestyle which he clearly hasn't mastered yet. I think it's the main reason behind his awful return stats, despite his technical and physical abilities. He must be the most aggressive returner on tour, whether it's in position, placement or guessing/ripping some balls. When he tries putting it in can play, like against Berrettini, it can look very good. Otherwise, it's just flashy just like the rest of his low percentage tennis he commits to too often, forgetting his great (altough fragile, like you mentioned) physical abilities in the process: half volleys from the lines, ripping shots with no spin from offensive positions, slapshots from defense, insane net rushing... I could go on and on but I feel like I did already. What I mean is that I feel like there is still some great unused potential behind that FH (and BH too, because it's not like it's unaffected - it's clearly not performing as well as it could at times) and I hope we see it someday. Because while I think he pulls off this brand of tennis better than most would, I think it's obviously sub-optimal and a bigger reason behind his unforced errors and return stats against Sinner than the FH itself.
Anyway, as I expected this got too long, so feel free to ignore my message or go back to it when you have a lot of free time ahead of you. Maybe I'm over-protective on a player I was sold on from the go, but I feel like "he doesn't know what he wants to be" has a reality outside of pure vibes. And maybe I misread this article as bearish on Rune when in reality you think too he could work around such issue, which at times doesn't even always present itself
Very thoughtful response Fraud. I'm still bullish on Rune to be clear, I am just thinking out loud of how to make a good forehand perhaps even better. As you point out he has at times played great on the forehand, and showcased an ability to be offensive, as well as lockdown on that wing. I think the bulk of his poor return stats are tactical in nature, but as high as the forehand ceiling can be, I think his compactness can open him up to having bad days with it, especially when he gets passive/tight/low on confidence after a losing streak. Then he has short moves and tight muscles, and that's when it can just look weak. When he is in an aggressive and confident mindset, the compactness looks like a feature, able to rip back hard balls off almost no space.
Well I don't know for sure, but if you don't rotate/coil enough in the setup, I think it's possible that you will end up over-rotating/coming out of the shot early. Or maybe he rotates too hard trying to force speed from that compact setup.
If I'm understanding what you mean by over-rotating properly, it might be a side effect of his arm not providing enough space, and him overcompensating by trying to get as much body rotation into the ball as possible.
Jason Frausto at tennisunleased did a good analysis comparing Runes forehand with Rublev's. Jason mentioned in the video that Rune, in the juniors, really liked Rublev's forehand and in fact tried to copy it. Jason showed in his analysis the similarities and differences in their technique. I too think Runes technique looks a little stiff. https://youtu.be/LDqHMShezzM?si=Pb0N_nHZRyV6DLI-
I was really impressed by his match play in the Kecmanovic match - he was almost dead and buried but he got his head back into it. Was the best I’d seen since he saved two match points and came back to win against (from memory) van der Scanschuulp on clay who had 40-15 for the title in spring 2023. (Or 2022?)
And then against Sinner in the 4th set he just seemed to lose his mind in the game where he was broken. Bad shot selection, lost from a winning position. Your technical analysis is wonderful but whenever I watch him I feel it’s not about weapons, it’s about his head.
Great comments. Rune does so many things well but remains lacking in a number of areas. Great foot speed and amazing hand-eye coordination generally but to move up to the top tier of the game he will need to make a number of improvements as you outline.
1. Needs to be able to hit down the line backhand drives more consistently. He hits almost all his backhands crosscourt and hits these well, and is able to hit these crosscourt shots with pace with an open stance, but rarely does he drive the ball down the line with real pace.
2. Can be sloppy with his forehand footwork, relying instead on his ability to hit his forehands even when out of position
3. Too often he fails to set up in a balanced position well in advance of his forehand shots. This is something that Sinner and Djokovic do so well. When he sets up early his weight is moving in the right direction, but when he is late in his prep he can be off balance or his weight can be moving backwards
4. He does not hit with as much topspin as players like Sinner and Djokovic, meaning he hits with less net clearance and a higher margin of error. He hits with pace but because of the low net clearance he makes too many unforced errors. This may require a change is his otherwise solid swinging motion
5. He could work on improving his slice backhands and volleys. These remains a weaker aspect of his game
6. Still needs coaching and improvement on his mental game. He tends to get overly temperamental at times, which impacts his play.
I think the main issue is that his forehand, with its linear swing path and an open face, is very solid but it's also power-hungry - you need to drive it or reuse incoming power. In other words, when he's blocking or swinging, it's powerful and accurate; in the Kecmanovic match he was ripping them cross-court on the run at times. It's possibly the best forehand in the tour when taking the ball early from the ground (Sinner's requires a bit more time, I feel). But whenever he cannot generate enough firepower it produces a weak ball or a net unless he goes for the moonball, and whenever he tries to overpower it without coordination (ie power deficit at some segment) it just sails long or wide. The Alcaraz comparison is apt: despite some similarities in the swing path, the insane athleticism of my fellow countryman delivers the extra explosiveness you need to punch it in more situations - though he also has B-sides, like the occasional rolled forehand, for other tricky situations.
In the modern game, you just can't get to the top without producing at least some quality shots from compromised / stretched / on-the-run positions; those are situations where you don't get as much drive and need to muscle the ball and/or whip it. The simplicity of his strokes, which is otherwise good for robustness, means that he does not get the cheap source of head speed other players get from extra whippiness from the wrist or elbow. In terms of solutions, it seems like a tricky "local optimum" situation: increasing elbow or wrist coiling is a double-edged sword because it adds noise and thus degrades its strengths. I wonder if he should just have alternative swings for some situations or maybe just add lead to get more acceleration time à la Djokovic. Maybe he just starts VO2-maxxing during the off-season instead of benching and surprises us in a couple of years.
"You can't fire a cannon from a canue." – what a great analogy! I guess I will use it im my coaching sessions from now on haha
I think there's something to this issue of Rune looking physically dominant and not being able to last. I wonder if it drives him totally crazy.
I love your thoughts on the grip. I still like the idea of keeping the palm behind the ball. Just more options than the modern forehand. The leaky forehand was on full display in Alcaraz’s loss. How many wide deuce returns did he miss? Sampras/Lendl/Fef would never have missed that many.
In a perfect world I can imagine Rune evolving/adapting into an Agassi-esque player, playing aggressively not by forehands in the vein of Alcaraz/Rafa/Roger but by taking the ball early and taking time away from opponents. Could be a good way to be aggressive while making use of a compact stroke. Thoughts?
I agree I think he was kind of running that program on the forehand side when he was on that indoor run late in 2022.
For me, he seems really well suited to utilizing the Di Minaur approach of hugging that baseline and sneaking in as often as he can.
The Demon is now a top ten staple and has made it into numerous major QFs with it, and I think Rune has better overall tools (notably BH and serve).
Hi Hugh,
As always, a great analysis, and one I had been waiting for after months (if not years) discussing that FH with you and others. While I definitely agree with your analysis (couldn't disagree if I wanted to), I guess I gotta digress a bit and defend a player I like a lot from what felt a little too close to Felix Auger-Aliassime's character assassination you had written back in September 2022, which had made me lose any hope I had in him (I know it wasn't the sentiment for either, but as a fan it can feel harsh lol).
To me, Rune's struggles certainly aren't just vibes, there are clear identifiable patterns, but I still think most of those are tactical in nature, and his FH is still good enough that he could access the very elite in both control and power if he gave himself the chance to leverage it to its fullest. Now, why do I think that? Well, first off, all your previous articles about him and all the other boxes (left hand excepted), he hits. Second, the actual on-court results, going from some ripping return winners, to insane lockdown mode consistency, to absorbing ability from the baseline (which was on display against Sinner until the legs sort of ran away), generation too with some smokers he can pull off. Third, because while I'd like him more if he kept that left hand on longer, he is sort of allowed a technical inefficiency as long as it's not FAA level : after all, you could say Sinner and Alcaraz have some too, and only Djokovic ticks all boxes. And it was not too long ago he was close/if not ahead of them, with the very same forehand.
What happened since then? I think a couple of rythm breaker injuries and, as you mentioned, coaching instability, has sort of convinced him to play a much more aggressive gamestyle which he clearly hasn't mastered yet. I think it's the main reason behind his awful return stats, despite his technical and physical abilities. He must be the most aggressive returner on tour, whether it's in position, placement or guessing/ripping some balls. When he tries putting it in can play, like against Berrettini, it can look very good. Otherwise, it's just flashy just like the rest of his low percentage tennis he commits to too often, forgetting his great (altough fragile, like you mentioned) physical abilities in the process: half volleys from the lines, ripping shots with no spin from offensive positions, slapshots from defense, insane net rushing... I could go on and on but I feel like I did already. What I mean is that I feel like there is still some great unused potential behind that FH (and BH too, because it's not like it's unaffected - it's clearly not performing as well as it could at times) and I hope we see it someday. Because while I think he pulls off this brand of tennis better than most would, I think it's obviously sub-optimal and a bigger reason behind his unforced errors and return stats against Sinner than the FH itself.
Anyway, as I expected this got too long, so feel free to ignore my message or go back to it when you have a lot of free time ahead of you. Maybe I'm over-protective on a player I was sold on from the go, but I feel like "he doesn't know what he wants to be" has a reality outside of pure vibes. And maybe I misread this article as bearish on Rune when in reality you think too he could work around such issue, which at times doesn't even always present itself
Very thoughtful response Fraud. I'm still bullish on Rune to be clear, I am just thinking out loud of how to make a good forehand perhaps even better. As you point out he has at times played great on the forehand, and showcased an ability to be offensive, as well as lockdown on that wing. I think the bulk of his poor return stats are tactical in nature, but as high as the forehand ceiling can be, I think his compactness can open him up to having bad days with it, especially when he gets passive/tight/low on confidence after a losing streak. Then he has short moves and tight muscles, and that's when it can just look weak. When he is in an aggressive and confident mindset, the compactness looks like a feature, able to rip back hard balls off almost no space.
To me what I saw is Rune trying to end the point several times with very uncomfortable balls. Recipe for disaster.
I also have the feeling when I watch his forehand that he seems to over-rotate on many of them. Do you have the same impression?
Could it perhaps seem that way because he's not holding the racket with his left hand as long as others?
Well I don't know for sure, but if you don't rotate/coil enough in the setup, I think it's possible that you will end up over-rotating/coming out of the shot early. Or maybe he rotates too hard trying to force speed from that compact setup.
agree, you can see a sign of this in him not looking at the contact point when hiting.
If I'm understanding what you mean by over-rotating properly, it might be a side effect of his arm not providing enough space, and him overcompensating by trying to get as much body rotation into the ball as possible.
Jason Frausto at tennisunleased did a good analysis comparing Runes forehand with Rublev's. Jason mentioned in the video that Rune, in the juniors, really liked Rublev's forehand and in fact tried to copy it. Jason showed in his analysis the similarities and differences in their technique. I too think Runes technique looks a little stiff. https://youtu.be/LDqHMShezzM?si=Pb0N_nHZRyV6DLI-
I was really impressed by his match play in the Kecmanovic match - he was almost dead and buried but he got his head back into it. Was the best I’d seen since he saved two match points and came back to win against (from memory) van der Scanschuulp on clay who had 40-15 for the title in spring 2023. (Or 2022?)
And then against Sinner in the 4th set he just seemed to lose his mind in the game where he was broken. Bad shot selection, lost from a winning position. Your technical analysis is wonderful but whenever I watch him I feel it’s not about weapons, it’s about his head.
That meme is brilliant though 😂
Great comments. Rune does so many things well but remains lacking in a number of areas. Great foot speed and amazing hand-eye coordination generally but to move up to the top tier of the game he will need to make a number of improvements as you outline.
1. Needs to be able to hit down the line backhand drives more consistently. He hits almost all his backhands crosscourt and hits these well, and is able to hit these crosscourt shots with pace with an open stance, but rarely does he drive the ball down the line with real pace.
2. Can be sloppy with his forehand footwork, relying instead on his ability to hit his forehands even when out of position
3. Too often he fails to set up in a balanced position well in advance of his forehand shots. This is something that Sinner and Djokovic do so well. When he sets up early his weight is moving in the right direction, but when he is late in his prep he can be off balance or his weight can be moving backwards
4. He does not hit with as much topspin as players like Sinner and Djokovic, meaning he hits with less net clearance and a higher margin of error. He hits with pace but because of the low net clearance he makes too many unforced errors. This may require a change is his otherwise solid swinging motion
5. He could work on improving his slice backhands and volleys. These remains a weaker aspect of his game
6. Still needs coaching and improvement on his mental game. He tends to get overly temperamental at times, which impacts his play.
I think the main issue is that his forehand, with its linear swing path and an open face, is very solid but it's also power-hungry - you need to drive it or reuse incoming power. In other words, when he's blocking or swinging, it's powerful and accurate; in the Kecmanovic match he was ripping them cross-court on the run at times. It's possibly the best forehand in the tour when taking the ball early from the ground (Sinner's requires a bit more time, I feel). But whenever he cannot generate enough firepower it produces a weak ball or a net unless he goes for the moonball, and whenever he tries to overpower it without coordination (ie power deficit at some segment) it just sails long or wide. The Alcaraz comparison is apt: despite some similarities in the swing path, the insane athleticism of my fellow countryman delivers the extra explosiveness you need to punch it in more situations - though he also has B-sides, like the occasional rolled forehand, for other tricky situations.
In the modern game, you just can't get to the top without producing at least some quality shots from compromised / stretched / on-the-run positions; those are situations where you don't get as much drive and need to muscle the ball and/or whip it. The simplicity of his strokes, which is otherwise good for robustness, means that he does not get the cheap source of head speed other players get from extra whippiness from the wrist or elbow. In terms of solutions, it seems like a tricky "local optimum" situation: increasing elbow or wrist coiling is a double-edged sword because it adds noise and thus degrades its strengths. I wonder if he should just have alternative swings for some situations or maybe just add lead to get more acceleration time à la Djokovic. Maybe he just starts VO2-maxxing during the off-season instead of benching and surprises us in a couple of years.