Rune v Tsitsipas: Stockholm Final Analysis

Rune's technique—return ratings—ceilings

Holger Rune defeated Stefanos Tsitsipas 6/4 6/4 in the final of the Stockholm ATP250 on Sunday. It was the Dane’s second career title and first on hard court.

This was a brilliant match from Rune, who dictated from start to finish and sent a warning shot to the top-10. Besides the Greek’s serve, there was little Tsitsipas could do from the back of the court; the youngster wove baseline power with great touch and awareness around the net, something we’ve seen in fellow teen Carlos Alcaraz. Back in April, I wrote a piece on Rune highlighting his technique. An excerpt:

What I love about Rune’s game is the simple and clean technique he uses on his forehands and backhands. His forehand sets up very early, and he gets the racquet-tip high with an extended wrist…I see technical similarities in Rune’s forehand with that of del Potro’s (although make no mistake that del Potro’s eastern-gripped hammer was far bigger) and I think long-term it will be a great shot.

High-noon setup. Extended wrist. Rune has the technical landmarks of fellow great forehands. Thiem, Delpo, Verdasco, Wawrinka, Djokovic, Sampras etc. all similar.

First set

It’s fair to say that since April Rune has beefed up his game; the gap between his forehand and that of ATG’s is smaller. He broke in the third game off the back of huge hitting. There’s a lot to love in the points below: change-of-direction, depth and power, all while holding the baseline and taking the ball early. These are the ingredients that I was pointing out in Thiem when he started to dominate the Big-3.

Rune returned with great depth and has an ability to change direction with control and power. His forehand is becoming a huge weapon on tour. Importantly, he has the ability to play with aggression from on/inside the baseline and control a flat ball off both wings. This is how you take time away from the best movers.

A further problem for opponents: Rune’s backhand is technically world-class. There is no reason this can’t be the best backhand on tour in the coming years. Per the commentator after this point: ““It’s just thunderous hitting that Tsitsipas is unable to control”

Deep middle return, stepping in with a full backhand take-back perfectly inline with other ATG backhands. See here and here for more on backhand biomechanics.

Back in May I wrote of Carlos Alcaraz:

Alcaraz loves to attack, but you can see that he marry’s that aggressive instinct with a determination to get started in a lot of points by returning from very deep in the court. The below graphic was from the Miami Masters back in March (which Alcaraz won).

The quote was followed by the graphic below.

Rune has similar instincts in his game that I believe are partly driven by his short and simple swings. Check out his brilliant transition ability in the points below.

Forehand dynamism. Rune has the ability to roll the ball with height and spin, then step in and drive a flatter ball up the line from inside the baseline. Note how quickly he recognizes an attackable ball and steps up to the baseline on the front foot.

This half-volley was a winner. But again, an amazing return that neutralizes Tsitsipas’s serve. There’s no hesitation to attack when he sees the floating ball. I would argue his technique allows for that mentality because he executes flat aggressive hitting so reliably.

Great depth from an early return this time coupled with finesse around the net. Rune has that Alcaraz-esque ability to marry power with the drop shot/touch.

As Tsitsipas went to toss this ball up Rune dropped right back almost out of screen for the return. From there he rolled a deep ball and absolutely crushed this forehand. The gif doesn’t do it justice. This is the Thiem/Alcaraz playbook right here.

Rune’s technique

Towards the end of the first set, after another blistering winner from Rune, one of the TennisTV commentators mentioned that she had had a discussion with Rune’s coach, Lars Christensen. The co-commentator asked about the mental aspect he [Lars] had taught Rune, but she quickly revealed the bulk of the discussion centred around technique¹:

Commentator: “But it’s quite interesting the biomechanics, isn’t it? How you create so much power, and Holger Rune does seem to do that. It’s just that extra little zip. More than the people that are slightly more physical, older, taller. And really that’s what we [Christensen] discussed. It was absolutely fascinating. Working on those fundamentals at a young age is so important for when players get a little older.”

Here is a link to the podcast episode. An excerpt from ~7:20:

Interviewer: “You’re a very technical coach I believe. Why is that so important?

Lars: “I was always very interested in biomechanics that I think came from my acrobatic career as well, you know, because biomechanics is such an important thing. When I started coaching I got very much into the biomechanics and I tried to build up a system of developing a young kid.”

Interviewer: “And when the kids have really good biomechanics as youngsters they can get higher so much quicker can’t they? Instead of reaching a plateau and getting frustrated just because their strokes are wrong.”

Lars: “I mean, for me that’s the main thing . You should develop their balance and stroke mechanics very early, because if there are limits in those two things they are going reach a certain level and they’re just going to plateau. It’s not going to be possible to take them any further. So for me it’s very important working on this things from the very beginning.”

Second set

The second was more of the same; Rune relentlessly dictating off both wings. The backhand is so simple and this allows him to take returns early or redirect flat winners from the deep in equal measure:

Unplayable.

Note how well Rune holds the baseline. Taking balls on the rise and redirecting down the line.

Rune won 14/18 net points today. A pickup Federer would be proud of.

Commentator: “That’s one of Tsitsipas’ signature moves for me, getting across to the forehand, but giving you an idea of the force that backhand is struck with from Rune. just leaning into the ball.”

A look at the numbers reveals just how dominant Rune was from the baseline:

These numbers do not include drop shot attempts, slices, or easy short ball winners. Winners include shots that the opponent touched or might be traditionally seen as a forced error. Second-serve returns, where the player looked set, were counted. As usual, I am interested in seeing how well stock topspin shots from the baseline were holding up.

Ceilings

Although Rune is not the most powerful or quickest player on tour, he is right up there with the very best technically, and I believe this gives him an edge over the field going forward. There isn’t another top youngster who is as clean from the back as Rune, and if the last 15 years have been anything to go by, having great technique has been a prerequisite to slam success. It is why Tsitsipas will struggle to win a slam in a post Big-3 era until his backhand evolves; in its current form its just too much of a liability. As Lars said earlier:

“if there are limits in those two things (balance and technique) they are going reach a certain level and they’re just going to plateau. It’s not going to be possible to take them any further.”

Tsitsipas is quickly becoming a gatekeeper more than a genuine slam threat, and his recent finals losses in the back half of this year have all come against players with an excellent Ad-side who have exposed the mismatch on backhands (Coric, Djokovic, and now Rune).²

A quote I have been recycling in recent weeks I think—again—warrants mentioning:

Of all the youngsters coming through, it has never been an issue of spin and power. Many people talk of a shot having a higher “margin of safety” (height over the net/ with more spin) but fail to recognise that it can come at the expense of a noisier swing; the swing has less margin for error in timing the ball. Medvedev has very little spin on his groundstrokes, but is extremely consistent because his strokes have high margins technically. These are nit-picky one-percenters, but one percent at this level is a huge difference.

Like Medvedev, Thiem, and Djokovic, Rune has the ability to play with flat control up in the court because of his technique.³ There are very few other young players you can hold in the same class; most have some frailty on either side. His return performance in the last 52-weeks has him ranked in 44th on the ATP 'Return Rating©' but I would wager that by this time next year he will be inside the top-10.

The green box is a combined score of (from L to R): First-serve return % points won, second-serve return % points won, % games won, % of break points converted.

Rune has the technical markers of the Big-3 off both wings. His ceiling/potential is huge in my opinion. If he can improve his fitness and emotional control, there’s no reason he can’t be world number 1 in the coming years.

1. Lars Christensen came to coaching after a circus career of all things. His focus on biomechanics and technique was due to this prior career. I believe tennis is still catching up to other disciplines—like golf and gymnastics—when focusing on technique.

2. He also lost to young lefty Jack Draper in Montreal. Another Ad-side matchup that killed him.

3. For those interested in topspin rates, a previous article on Gasquet contains a graph made by a twitter user with 2018 data. Medvedev is one of the flattest hitters off both wings.