Rune v Djokovic: Paris Masters Final Analysis

Corner defence antidotes—backhand technique—URS

Holger Rune defeated Novak Djokovic 3/6 6/3 7/5 in the final of the Paris Masters on Sunday to lift his maiden Masters 1000 title and level his H2H with Djokovic (1-1). The teen becomes the first player in history to defeat five top-10 players en route to a title (def. #153 Wawrinka, #10 Hurkacz, #9 Rublev, #1 Alcaraz, #8 Auger-Aliassime, and #7 Djokovic) and also the first player to beat Djokovic in a Masters final when losing the first set (Djokovic now 30-1). Wild stat.

Before the match I tweeted my thoughts on the final:

Thread_of_Order @ThreadOrder

Early #Rune v #Djokovic thoughts. Rune is close to being as good technically off the ground as Novak. More aggressive and hitting harder, so he will press and make more errors.

All of this played out accordingly, minus the actual result, but my view is Novak wins this match 8/10 on any other day. Not mentioned here are the break points saved: Rune saved 10/12 (!), and Djokovic saved 0/3. A look at the ATP stats:

Notes: good to see the ATP adopting unreturned serves as a metric (URS), rather than aces. Djokovic is always sneaky good in that category with ~33% here. Note also Rune’s backhand domination. Some of these are off drop shots and short balls, which is why I take my own stats to measure pure topspin baseline metrics.

I took my own stats (where I include ‘forced winners’ and discount short ball winners/drop shots/slices to get a better metric of pure topspin baseline excellence):

These numbers do not include drop shot attempts, slices, or easy short ball winners. Winners include shots that the opponent touched or might be traditionally seen as a forced error. Second-serve returns, where the player looked set, were counted. As usual, I am interested in seeing how well stock topspin shots from the baseline were holding up.

This newsletter started with Death of a Forehand, highlighting the trend away from the modern forehand (upright racquet, extended wrist) technique in many young players. There have been exceptions and those exceptions have tended to do well (Thiem 2020, Alcaraz¹, and now Rune). A quote from that piece:

…there is no great forehand coming through in the younger generation, and some of the players (e.g., Zverev, Sock, and Shapovalov) tend to be inconsistent off that wing. The nextgen technique suffers when control is required (i.e., on return, on the run, and with variation) and when the pressure increases. In these instances, you want fewer moving parts to help time the ball and make execution easier when you might be tight. The modern forehand accommodates this by simply shortening the backswing and keeping the wrist extended. Power is generated by using a larger loop in the backswing and by relying on bigger muscles with the kinetic chain (and an increased swingweight in the frame).

The crux of that piece—and this newsletter more broadly—was to highlight the technical landmarks that the Big-3 and former great players shared across forehands, backhands², and serves. It was also to highlight that the defining feature of great tennis is control, rather than power. A quote from Davydenko in a prior piece:

“In my opinion, tennis is not making much progress. The players who are at the top now – not Nadal and Djokovic, but the younger generation –are not that good technically. I got surprised by that. It’s more physical – big serves, hitting hard–, but we still see that Nadal and Djokovic can control all this power over the new generation. They are still winning Slams and beating guys who are ten years younger than them, which is amazing. Anyway, I do not feel that the new generation is playing on an unbelievable level.”

Despite his diminutive stature, Davydenko had great fundamentals off both wings, and it allowed him to play up in the court and dictate against bigger opposition by stealing time.³

Rune’s game is similar. His simple technique makes him flexible with shot selection. He can play up and absorb, or drop back and generate, and he can do it off both wings. Next time you watch Rune play, take note of how often he chooses to hold the baseline and simply shorten the swing.

Note the variation Rune has in forehands. An abbreviated return inside the baseline; a squash shot defensive slice; a deep looping ball heavy with spin from behind the PARIS sign.

A flat drive from deep and wide. The backhand drop shot works well because his topspin drive is so good; it keeps opponents pinned deep.

It was interesting to watch Djokovic face a guy who was willing to blend aggression with a stubborn refusal to miss in big moments. Most players sort of entrench themselves in one style more (Medvedev counterpunches very well, but lacks the slice/drop shots/and aggressive ability to expose a deep position, Kyrgios serves and comes forward well, but lacks the defense to hang on in big points, etc.) and this makes it very hard to beat Djokovic, because his corner defense is so good. You have to be able to push him back, but also threaten the forecourt. Djokovic makes you have to find a lot of real estate (i.e., angles, drop shots) to win points. And that real estate is harder to find when the pressure is on. Trying to hang with him in big points usually just favours him even more. As I mentioned after the Wimbledon final v Kyrgios:

One of the hardest things about playing Djokovic is the difficulty of winning important points. As the occasion grows, the style of tennis of most players converges towards the safe and consistent style that Djokovic epitomizes, and so solving the Djokovic game presents players with a puzzle; as you get closer to beating him, you instinctively tend to improve his odds of winning points, and kill your own.

There are few exceptions to this rule, and they notably feature players with rock-solid fundamentals off both wings and great movement. That list is very short in my eyes. Rune is now on it.

Full take back. Drop inside. This is going to be one of the best backhands on tour for the next 10+ years.

High take-back allows gravity to start the swing. Drops below the ball from the inside. Short follow through. An absolute wall.

What’s interesting to me is that Rune’s still missing a lot of forehands and backhands—and I’ve mentioned that this is partly growing pains—but the misses are usually pretty clean; he is striking the ball so well. He isn’t mis-timing balls. To me, this puts his ceiling quite high. It means you can take on low-percentage ‘dumb’ shots you have no business making because you have great mechanics.⁴

Great depth from both. Rune’s backhand is every bit as simple as Djokovic’s, so it opens up a lot of options that we are used to seeing from the Serb. As the commentator mentioned after this winner: “What a backhand…Even higher risk, higher reward. Didn’t have the court position to be hitting down-the-line here, but what a counter-punch. What a hit. That’s the kind of shot we’re used to seeing Djokovic produce.”

And it also opens up a host of forecourt options that just won’t ever be available to a lot of other players. Look how early he takes this backhand.

Gif doesn’t do it justice how well he took on this ball. He can drive it and absorb so well. Djokovic does Djokovic here, but this kind of pressure also made the Serb miss more backhands than he normally would.

I’ve discussed Rune’s game at length in recent posts—after he defeated Tsitsipas in Stockholm here, and before his loss to FAA in Basel here. There are plenty of other examples in those two pieces that highlight how complete a player Rune is, and I guess my key takeaway is this excerpt (from the FAA piece):

While the power is impressive, what I love about the Dane’s game is his willingness to take time away from opponents. He steps in, redirects, and plays a controlled flat ball. This is exactly what I think is missing from young players today. It’s what Thiem added to his game and allowed him to go 6-1 versus the Big-3 after 2019.

Rune’s coach, Lars Christensen, has done an incredible job coaching the Dane since he was a young junior. He recognized the importance of technique:

“if there are limits in those two things (balance and technique) they are going reach a certain level and they’re just going to plateau. It’s not going to be possible to take them any further.”

We’ve seen these technical limitations manifest as plateau’s in a host of other young prospects (Tsitsipas’ slice backhand, Zverev’s serve/forehand, Berrettini/Rublev/FAA backhands, Khachanov/Tiafoe forehands). This isn’t an issue for the Dane. Serve, forehands, and backhands are all fundamentally rock solid. On top of that, the 19-year-old has shown deft touch with the backhand drop shot, a willingness to take the ball early and come forward, big second serves, and a handy backhand slice. Dare I say that description sort of reminds me of a young Djokovic.

The Dane now sits entrenched in the top-10 in the ATP rankings. Is his game ready to win a slam? I think so. My question mark is still over fitness and mental maturity, something Alcaraz has in spades. Either way, it’s an exciting time in tennis with some young blood coming through as genuine contenders.

1. I still think Alcaraz should lower his elbow as Thiem did.

2. Obviously, Federer had a single-hander. I’ve touched on Gasquet’s here.

3. Davydenko is one of few players to get a winning H2H over Nadal (with at least 5 matches played) and dominated the Spaniard on hardcourts.

4. Several times this week he half-volleyed forehands for a clean winner.