Old and New Gatekeepers, Technical Deficiencies, Wimbledon

Davydenko—Nalbandian—Thiem—Berrettini

If you have followed tennis for a while you will certainly remember Nikolay Davydenko, the Russian gatekeeper who never won a slam, but was a top-5 player who was unfortunately (or fortunately, depending how you look at it) destined to play runner-up while playing in the same era as the Big-4.

In a recent interview with Clay, Davydenko was asked what the biggest difference was in today’s game compared to when he was playing at his peak over a decade ago. The Russian’s response echoed a similar sentiment to what A Thread of Order has been suggesting in recent months (emphasise added):

“In my opinion, tennis is not making much progress. The players who are at the top now – not Nadal and Djokovic, but the younger generation –are not that good technically. I got surprised by that. It’s more physical – big serves, hitting hard–, but we still see that Nadal and Djokovic can control all this power over the new generation. They are still winning Slams and beating guys who are ten years younger than them, which is amazing. Anyway, I do not feel that the new generation is playing on an unbelievable level.”

I touched on Davydenko’s technique (his forehand in particular, but his backhand is also world-class) and how it allowed him to play from an ultra-aggressive court position in Death of a Forehand - Part I. An excerpt from that piece:

Notice how stable Davydenko’s wrist is from the beginning of the swing right up until contact; the range of movement is confined (extended to hyperextended). Speed is generated by getting the racquet head above his shoulders, with the racquet tip pointing to high noon, and using his body’s kinetic chain to uncoil. Reducing movement at the most distal joint allowed Davydenko to play from a hyper-aggressive court position and control a flat ball. Despite his small stature, he could pressure the very best players by holding the baseline, abbreviating the swing, and taking the ball early.

Davydenko was a phenomenal baseliner who lacked a big first-serve. David Nalbandian was in a similar mold. Neither man was particularly big or strong, yet both could take Big-3 players to the cleaners with their early forehands and backhands. Davydenko had great success against Nadal on hard courts (leads their H2H 5-1), as he said in the same interview with Clay:

“For me, playing against Nadal on hard felt like playing against just another opponent.”

Despite the success of the Big-3, very few young players coming through actually mimic them technically (especially on the forehand). The trend in the last ten years has seen the rise of the big-serving counter-puncher. Medvedev and Zverev are the prototypes.¹ Tall players with a huge first serve married with a baseline game that is generally risk-averse, played from deep behind the baseline. Neither looks to take the ball early (Medvedev perhaps does this better now) and both their forehands are either very long (Medvedev) or feature a flexed wrist (Zverev)—something I suspect hurts players when it comes to control. Behind them, a cadre of power-hitting youngsters also show promise—Tsitsipas, Auger-Aliassime, Rublev, and Berrettini to name a few—but they all lack a great defensive backhand. These players hit huge serves and look to dictate with their forehands, however, none possess the control off both wings that the Davydenko’s, Nalbandian’s, and Big-3 display(ed). Their strokes are generally wristier (‘noisier’). As a result, Djokovic and Nadal have been able to tame their power games over the five-set format almost without fail.

The one youngster who did approach the Big-3’s technical efficiency was Dominic Thiem.² When Thiem first came on tour his strokes were powerful and technically sound, but very long; he couldn’t take the ball early, and his attempts to beat top players on a hard court always fell short as he tried to hit through them standing three-metres behind the baseline. He was similar to the current crop of young players I just mentioned; dangerous, but tamed over five sets.

Up until 2019, Thiem was 0-6 v the Big-3 on hardcourts.

In 2019, under the guidance of Nicholas Massu, Thiem’s strokes were shortened, and he adopted a more aggressive court position. I wrote about this here. For an in-depth look at Thiem’s forehand evolution, check out this video. The shorter swing made Thiem a hardcourt threat in the space of months. The gifs below all showcase the kind of shots and points that were made possible by the swing adjustment.

Since 2019 Thiem is 6-1 against the Big-3 on hardcourts. (2-0 v Federer, 2-0 v Nadal, 2-1 v Djokovic). The single loss was against Djokovic in the final of the Australian Open. A five-set defeat.

At the 2020 Australian Open, Thiem got his first win against Nadal on a hard court. You can see very early on in the match Thiem adopts a Federer-like 1-2 punch from inside the baseline. A combination that was made possible with this shorter forehand take back. If you watch the highlights from that match here, note how well Thiem held the baseline throughout the encounter, often taking the ball on the rise.

Shorter swing and taking time > bigger swing from deep in the court. If you watch the Davydenko highlights from the YouTube clip earlier in this article you will notice how often he plays from on (or inside) the baseline, preferring to hit a rally ball from an aggressive position. This is how you beat the Big-3 on hard courts.

Same pattern here against Djokovic early in the final.

While Thiem’s peak years were cruelly interrupted by a serious wrist injury, his transformation from clay-court specialist to all-court danger should be noticed by other young players. Thiem always had power, but it wasn’t until he was willing to dial down the swing and stand up in the court that he became a better player. Wrist action is minimal. Power and spin are sacrificed for directional control. In this set-up, a player’s court coverage and all-court style are able to manifest fully.

On the eve of Wimbledon, another player who uses a very short forehand swing has quickly found form on the grass after being sidelined for the clay season. Matteo Berrettini has a huge serve, and the forehand is a hammer that he can hold the baseline with, partly because of how compact it is.

The huge serve and dynamic forehand have earned Berrettini his own gatekeeper status; in his last 4 slams the Italian has lost to Nadal (22’ AO SF), Djokovic (21’ US QF), Djokovic (21’ Wimbledon F), and Djokovic (21’ French QF). However, Berrettini’s backhand is a clear Achilles heel, lacking the control or power of his forehand. Joel Myers explains the weakness in this swing and compares it to Jannik Sinner’s brilliant two-hander in the 90-second clip below.

When I look at the young players littered in the top 20, few possess the sound mechanics of a Federer, Djokovic, Nadal, Davydenko, Nalbandian, or Wawrinka off both wings.³ Davydenko is right—the power and physicality are there—but the top youngsters are playing with deteriorated technique in some parts of their game. It works when you have time or are playing deep behind the baseline, but it doesn’t translate into an effective transition game capable of stealing time, it doesn’t hold up as well on return, it doesn’t generate a controllable flat ball, and it bleeds errors when on the run.

Players and commentators often say tennis is about movement and mentality. Yes, these two facets are hugely important, but if you don’t have efficient and technically sound swings you can’t leverage your movement or tactical acumen effectively; you can step in with light feet, but your hands won’t keep up, and you’re more likely to miss-hit. If you can’t step in and apply pressure, you’re destined to play deep in the court and let your opponent dictate your fate. It doesn’t usually end well against the Big-3.

WIMBLEDON

While Berrettini has been impressive in his two grass tune-up events and is certainly one of the favourites, my two leading contenders are still Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal. They move too well and are too clean from both wings compared to the rest of the field. An unbelievable serving day on the grass will be required from a Kyrgios, Hurkacz, Berrettini, or Auger-Aliassime; off the ground they are holding the weaker hand, especially on their backhand sides.

1. Even Djokovic has improved his serve significantly, hitting bigger on second serve especially.

2. I think Medvedev has as well, but I am concentrating on offensive baseliners.

3. Holger Rune has excellent fundamentals off both wings. Sebastian Korda is another.