Djokovic v Tsitsipas: Astana Final Analysis

Loose games—Tsitsipas' slice issues—forehand strategies

Novak Djokovic defeated Stefanos Tsitsipas 6/3 6/4 in the final of the Astana ATP500. The Serb extends his win streak to 9 matches and now leads Tsitsipas 8-3 in their H2H.

The opening exchanges featured clear tactics from both:

• Tsitsipas looked to pressure the Djokovic forehand with his own hard crosscourt forehands; if he could make it a battle of forehands, he was a good chance.

• Djokovic was willing to trade forehands as a means to open up space on the Greek’s backhand. As I have touched on before, Tsitsipas lacks a great defensive slice. He is most vulnerable when running to the backhand.

Tsitsipas

Great play from Tsitsipas to go hard into the Djokovic forehand in neutral situations. It’s Djokovic’s weaker side defensively, and it protects his own backhand from being exposed. When Tsitsipas made it a match of forehands, he was a good chance.

Another excellent example of Tsitsipas’ forehand tactics. Djokovic loves to use his lateral speed defensively. He’s comfortable doing that all day. The best way to take away the legs of a fast player is to often go behind them as they are recovering, as Tsitsipas did here very well, stepping into the forehand to take away time. (However, later in the match Djokovic would start to anticipate this with increasing effectiveness).

The point below plays across two GIFs, and it’s an excellent example of how Tsitsipas should play more often; commit to forehand exchanges and play with variation on his backhand—using slices to compliment the forehand would reduce the attack options of opponents looking to expose his backhand.

Part 1: Tsitsipas goes hard into Djokovic's forehand and Djokovic gives it back even better, which opens up a middle ball for him to hit into Tsitsipas’ backhand. Tsitsipas does well to slice deep into Djokovic’s backhand corner. This buys him some time and reduces the attack options of Djokovic (less pace on the ball for Djokovic to redirect, less height, and harder to drop shot off a slicing ball).

Part 2: We see Djokovic run around to use the forehand off Tsitsipas’ slice, but he doesn’t get much angle or pace on this ball (Djokovic struggles to generate pace at times—his game is more suited to absorb pace rather than generate it himself), and Tsitsipas easily covers the line and rips his forehand crosscourt into a big target for a forced error.

This match was basically decided by two very mediocre service games from Tsitsipas—one in each set—and it has been a symptom of the Greek’s game this season; a string of errors and wayward tactics coalesce in 3 or 4 points.

Serving at 3-4 in the first set Tsitsipas missed two regulation forehands and a poor slice to gift the break to Djokovic. Djokovic also started to look more dominant than Stef in the forehand exchanges, and in a lot of ways, the trends in this match were a carbon copy of their Madrid final. Against Djokovic, Tsitsipas looks lost once his forehand doesn’t pay immediate dividends, and his panic manifests in low-percentage plays (down-the-line drive backhands, drop shots, and serve-volley are the usual symptoms). If he had a better slice I think he would feel he could be more patient and apply this tactic with more margin. But he still doesn’t have that shot, and I see little improvement in it, despite what the commentators said today to pad the air-time. This is the most worrying thing for me; how has he not changed and improved this shot in the last 18-24 months? A quote from a prior piece:

The very best are willing to make deliberate changes to equipment and technique if it means improving. They didn’t get better simply by playing the matches and assuming improvement would happen without deliberate practice. They battled, lost, analysed, and adapted.

At 2-2 in the second the Greek played another loose game and was broken to love:

• The first point was the best construction from Tsitsipas, but Djokovic did what Djokovic does:

  

  Anticipation. Movement. End-range strength and consistency. Over and over and over again. How many Nextgen players can we say that about?

• Stef then missed an off-forehand taking a big cut on a ball he had no business with. Perhaps premeditated as it was off the return.

• A serve-volley attempt wide to the Djokovic forehand on the deuce side was met with a shoelace volley that he dumped into the net.

• Tsitsipas attempted a drop shot at 15-40 that landed halfway up the net. Game Djokovic.

Djokovic

A sliding sponge. Tsitsipas hit two brilliant balls into Djokovic’s forehand, and Djokovic did well to anticipate and redirect. This is the right play, but sometimes you have to say “Too good”.

Djokovic was never really pushed in this match; he didn’t face a break point and was up a break relatively early in both sets. Much like last week’s final against Marin Cilic, this was a masterclass in absorbing the power of his opponent and turning the screws with his unmatched control. From last week:

Corner defense married with controlled depth and subtle change-of-direction may not make for good highlight reels, but it allows him to effortlessly tear apart quality top-20 opposition without getting out of mid-gears.

If you don’t have a strong AD side in the men’s game today, you have built your game on sand; the top players will ruthlessly expose you. As good as Tsitsipas is, his backhand side will forever be the castle of sand until his slice develops into something world-class.

Djokovic doesn’t go close to the lines or apply much heat to any of these shots, but he picks his spots better than anybody and is aided by an over-protective Tsitsipas. The screenshot below freezes at the moment of impact.

Here’s a screenshot of the above point at impact for Djokovic. You can see here Tsitsipas camping a fraction too far over on his backhand side. Novak comfortably hits this 2 - 3 foot inside the line for a forced error.

There’s just nothing in this that is risky for Djoker. High percentage aggression.

But let’s forget Tsitsipas’ backhand for a moment, because even if he were to magically develop an Evans/Federer slice, he would still have a mountain to climb. Djokovic won this match in fourth gear, with glimpses of his end-range:

Commentator: “And again, Tsitispas has hit a good forehand there but it has just come racing back at him. Rushes the next one. Causes the error.”

Goat features: Wide base, abbreviated swing, anticipates next short ball. A classic Djokovic 2-shot pass. Again, it’s the right play from Tsitsipas.

Line-kissed winner. Right when Tsitsipas had a sniff of creating a small comeback, Djokovic comes through with ultimate accuracy.

Djokovic has now sealed his spot at the World Tour Finals in Turin next month. At 35, Djokovic looks fitter and hungrier than anyone he’s faced in the last fortnight, and despite what the rankings say, he is the best player in the world right now. For Tsitsipas and Medvedev, there are still areas to improve technically (slice and volleys, respectively), and until they do they are entering matches as underdogs against a man who just won’t quit.

A final quote I saw on Twitter attributed to Aldous Huxley:

“Experience is not what happens to a man; it is what a man does with what happens to him.”