Tsitsipas x Coric: Cincinnati Finals Analysis

Finding forehands—Coric's serve—where is the slice?

Borna Coric defeated Stefanos Tsitsipas 7/6 6/3 to clinch his first Masters 1000 win after a shoulder injury sidelined the Croat for the majority of last season. The win capped off an impressive week where he defeated #30 Lorenzo Musetti, #3 Rafael Nadal, #18 Roberto Bautista-Agut, #8 Felix Auger-Aliassime, #9 Cameron Norrie, and #5 Tsitsipas, for the loss of just one set (Nadal).

Tsitsipas came out firing early on, attacking Coric’s forehand and mixing up his backhand spins. Through 4-1, Tsitsipas won 7 points by hitting his forehand into Coric’s forehand to generate a short ball for a subsequent point-ending shot. He won a further 6 points by virtue of Coric missing a forehand return or rushed forehand from the back of the court. Coric’s first 10 forehands either missed, or landed ~on or inside the service box.

Coric’s first 10 forehand results. Red dots = Tsitsipas able to hit a point-ending shot. Red cross = Coric missed forehands. Beige = neutral.

Two reasons I think Coric’s forehand is liable to often land short:

1. Note how defensively he moves to that side. He often moves across and back when covering the forehand side, rather than trying to hold the baseline (like he does on his backhand). This means he has a longer shot to reach the deep part of his opponent’s court, and early on he simply wasn’t executing well.

2. He takes his left hand off the racquet early in the preparation. This stops him from coiling his upper body as much, which means there is less rotation in his upper body = less racquet head speed.

Note how deep in the court Coric is when he hits these forehands too short.

Tsitsipas was going forehand-forehand many times in the opening games of the match.

Coric’s hold for 4-2 was a glimpse into the fragility of Tsitsipas’s backhand on hard courts. He missed an easy slice and shanked two returns trying to come over the ball. He is susceptible on that side because he lacks a great slice, but what hurts him more is a seeming lack of awareness; he was up 4-1 using slices and attacking the Coric forehand, and this game allowed Coric to settle with a cheap hold. The very next game Tsitsipas started to serve-volley. Coric changed nothing. In fact, the same short forehand that Tsitsipas had been dining on now became a tough low volley by virtue of Coric’s forehands landing so short.

By opting to come forward Tsitsipas lost an easy short forehand and was forced into tough volleys. Coric is standing so deep to return he had time to see Tsitsipas come forward, and the Greeks’ serve wasn’t wide enough initially.

An almost carbon copy to go down triple-break point.

The four points Tsitsipas lost to get broken at 4-2:

1. Serve volley where Coric hit an easy backhand pass.

2. Shank topspin backhand.

3. Serve volley where Coric hit a short angle forehand for a winner.

4. Forehand unforced error into the Coric backhand.

Tsitsipas did not play his forehand into Coric’s forehand once the entire game.

The long 3-4 game saw Tsitsipas regather his tactics a bit, knuckling down and targeting the Coric forehand again. Tsitsipas also had a lot of success going deep middle to Coric in this game. Of the 6 points Tsitsipas won in the 3-4 game, 4 were a result of going middle and drawing an error out of Coric (the other two were a Tsitsipas forehand winner shown below, and a missed wide forehand from Coric.)

This is how Tsitsipas should have played this whole match. Play deep middle or to the Coric forehand and look to establish forehand patterns. Instead, Tsitsipas got stuck into too many backhand cross court exchanges.

Towards the backend of the first set Tsitsipas failed to get into forehand patterns of play, and Coric grew in confidence on serve and with his backhand, hitting up the line on several occasions for a winner.

The second was a letdown; Tsitsipas almost looked disinterested for passages of play, and he refused to adjust his return strategy. As a result, Coric didn’t even have to play any groundstrokes on most of his service points.

Nearly 36% of Coric’s serves went unreturned for the match. The second set was particularly bad from Tsitsipas.

Furthermore, Tsitsipas tried to double down on his topspin backhand strategy, something that also backfired back in March when playing Alcaraz in Miami.

Tsitsipas was +6 on forehand and -12 on the backhand. This isn’t unusual or surprising. In fact, it’s been a consistent theme in many match analyses I have done that have involved the Greek (vs Djokovic in Rome, Kyrgios at Halle, Kyrgios at Wimbledon, and now Coric in Cincy).

As I wrote back in March on Tsitsipas:

Serving at 5-3 15-15 Tsitsipas was firmly in charge of this match. He had served and returned brilliantly, used the chip well, and overall kept Alcaraz off balance in a lot of exchanges. However, from this point forward he would move away from the slice and opt to continually try and hit over his singled-handed backhand; he would only win 3 more games.

The same could be said in this match. From 4-1 up Tsitsipas managed only 4 more games due to a complete lack of discipline. He had the game plan and execution within his grasp, yet for reasons unknown he continually reverts to topspin backhand cross-court patterns of play against players who love that.

Tsitsipas has one of the best forehands in the game coupled with a great serve. He needs to play through that corner far more against the Coric’s and Alcaraz’s of the game. He needs to commit to the slice. Surely his team is looking at these matches afterward and conveying that to him. Ahead of the US Open, I can’t see him as a serious contender as long as he plays like this; I don’t see him able to string 7 wins together on a fast hard court without a committed slice strategy in his arsenal.

For Coric, it was a great serving performance and he got stronger as the match went on. Although his forehand is susceptible, his mentality seems to place a premium on unforced errors; he hates to miss, and I think with the confidence he takes from this week, he will be thinking of a deep run in New York if he gets a decent draw.