Basel Final Preview

Backhands—serve plus one—aggression

Holger Rune defeated Roberto Bautista-Agut 7/6 7/6, and Felix Auger-Aliassime defeated Carlos Alcaraz 6/3 6/2 to book a final between two young guns on a tear. FAA is on a 12-match win streak, and Rune is on a 9-match win streak.

Auger-Aliassime v Alcaraz

FAA again put on a serving display that rocked the world number 1 (now leads Alcaraz 3-0 in H2H). While the Canadian ‘only’ hit 9 aces, an additional 13 serves didn’t come back, and a large chunk more were easy short balls that he put away with routine forehands. Alcaraz looked out of sorts—as he has since winning last month’s US Open—but this was a beating, and indoors FAA has looked unfazed since his first match against Otte in Florence. A breakdown of the official stats:

Alcaraz’s inability to get free points on serve, coupled with an erratic backhand made it challenging to create problems for the big-serving Canadian. FAA did well to reduce his backhand errors, and overall just looked much sharper throughout this encounter.

Matthew Willis @mattracquet

Points won under 5 shots on serve: Alcaraz serving: Alcaraz 14, Auger-Aliassime 12 (Alcaraz +2) Auger-Aliassime serving: Alcaraz 4, Auger-Aliassime 32 (Auger-Aliassime +28) Mammoth serving edge for Auger-Aliassime

As I’ve touched on in recent posts here and here, FAA’s clear weakness is his backhand. The commentators again noted this today:

“It’s been a few times now that Auger-Aliassime [is] trying to go down the line with the backhand. But you can see he’s not very comfortable doing it.”

In recent matches he’s done well to keep the errors very low, but Alcaraz was unable to redirect his backhand down the line today, which I believe is a key shot if you want to get the Canadian out of his off-forehand patterns from the Ad-court. Again, this was obvious for most to see:

“When he [Alcaraz] is able to get himself in that position where he is changing directions, getting the Canadian on the run, that’s when he has a good chance to win the points. But so far he has not been able to get himself in that position.”

“The margins are so narrow. It’s not much that it is missing by today for Alcaraz.”

Here Alcaraz gets a full take-back and crushes this backhand for a forced error. Too often he keeps the racquet head outside his hands which leads to him catching the inside of the ball, losing the ability to redirect with control. See here for more

I’ve also touched on Alcaraz’s backhand multiple times now, and I’ll keep repeating it; at the foundation of a great shot is great technique. I can’t think of an ATG great backhand that has the setup outside the hands like Alcaraz (and FAA, for that matter). Good biomechanics will trump athleticism/coordination/talent etc. over the long arc of a career. Of course, patches of confident tennis will paper over these weaknesses, but it will always be a liability that resurfaces without control. As I wrote after his loss to Musetti in Hamburg:

“So far this year many wins have come about because Alcaraz papers over his forehand and backhand inconsistencies with brilliant intangibles that you cannot teach; the drop shot feel, court awareness, and creativity are just expressions of pure talent.”

Attacking the FAA forehand on your terms is the best play against the Canadian. His running forehand will bleed more errors, and you’ll open up his backhand.

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Rune v Bautista-Agut

Rune snuck through in straight sets here. I thought he was impatient and overly aggressive on a lot of points, but what has impressed me in recent weeks is how dangerous he is from the back; he can crush it off both sides in both directions.

One of several rocket forehand returns Rune hit today. Short backswing, upright racquet head. Use the pace and steal time.

Huge number of winners from Rune from both sides. He is reminiscent of Thiem in 2020 with his ability to take it early with abbreviated forehand swings, and also crush backhands in both directions.

While the power is impressive, what I love about the Dane’s game is his willingness to take time away from opponents. He steps in, redirects, and plays a controlled flat ball. This is exactly what I think is missing from young players today. It’s what Thiem added to his game and allowed him to go 6-1 versus the Big-3 after 2019.

Watch Rune take the forehand crosscourt from a metre inside the baseline. He doesn’t hit it hard, but he is stealing time from his opponents with a high percentage shot.

This is a Federer-esque serve +1 from inside the baseline. Half-volley forehand redirected. RBA doesn’t get close.

Upright racquet head. Short swing. Taken on the rise while transitioning forward.

While the forehand has been impressive, the key tomorrow is going to be Rune’s backhand. No opponent has been able to get FAA off his backhand mound consistently in the past weeks (Maybe Otte), and Rune’s backhand down-the-line is the ace up his sleeve. His technique is so clean off that wing, and last week’s demolition job of Tsitsipas had that shot on full display. This pattern below will be required:

Change-of-direction. Take it early. Getting FAA to hit running backhands will tip the match in Rune’s favour.

The market has FAA as a heavy favourite tomorrow, but I think many are underestimating Rune’s ability to play a brand of tennis that can trouble the exact style the Canadian employs. In my mind this is a 50/50 match. Two keys for each player:

FAA

1. FAA has kept his first-serve percentage above 60% in every match this week. When he does, he wins ~ 90% of first-serve points.

2. Reduce backhand errors. He’s done well to return middle and then play steady through the cross-court all week.

Rune

1. Target the FAA forehand early in the rally to open up the backhand. Serve to the forehand and rush FAA’s backhand on the run. Getting the Canadian off his backhand mound will make him uncomfortable.

2. Come forward to steal time. FAA has hit some unbelievable passing shots this week, but they aren't percentage plays. He’s in a purple patch. Put it to the test again.

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