Sinner vs Zverev: AO Final Preview
forehands — serves — drop shots — fitness
Defending champion Jannik Sinner takes on Alexander Zverev for the Australian Open title. Zverev leads their H2H 4-2.
Keys to the Match
The forehand trade. I think the biggest difference between these two is the forehand quality, especially under pressure. Sinner’s has proven to be the benchmark on hardcourts the past 12 months, whereas Zverev’s — while much improved — is always a question mark in big moments. I think Sinner will be sitting on Zverev’s predictable crosscourt forehand trade and will look to go down-the-line hard (not dissimilar to what Djokovic was doing for a set). His line forehand when set and on the run is probably the best in the world now.
Straight arm versus bent arm. You can also see how the different wrist position in the setup manifests in very different racquet face orientations. Sinner’s racquet face is initially facing towards us as viewers, whereas Zverev’s is closer to facing the ball or the ground (partly a grip difference as well, as Sinner’s is a little more extreme). On first appearance Zverev’s looks like the simpler motion from that position, but the German extends the elbow and goes from wrist flexion to wrist extension, all within the last couple of feet before contact. That’s more distal joint movement than is necessary. Sinner’s lower arm has virtually no movement. The wrist is already extended in the setup, and because he hits with a bent elbow there is no elbow movement from the setup either, his upper arm/shoulder is what flips the racquet into the slot. It may look whippy, but that is due to the lighter racquets necessitating more of a flip to create more speed, not unlike a uh, whip.
Zverev has changed and improved his forehand over the years. The grip is more conservative now, and he now hits with a straight arm on contact, whereas he used to hit with a bent arm. Compare some 2021 footage to 2024 and note how the index knuckle has moved from a traditional semi-western spot, to something closer to eastern:
Given his flexed wrist and outside setup, I think the more conservative grip helps Zverev. If you read my recent piece on Rune’s forehand you would have learnt about the concept of P-A-S (path of the racquet, angle of the racquet, speed of the racquet) to describe every swing. It’s easier to create a linear racquet path with more conservative grips, which means you can create ball speed and depth with a slower swing (Medvedev is another good example of this. He’s a slow twitch guy but with his eastern forehand he gets good depth and ball speed) and with a swing that is less in-to-out (Agassi is a good example of this; very little lag compared to modern guys). Zverev’s forehand ball speed from the middle of the court was up 3 miles per hour in 2024 compared to 2023, and his overall rating from Tennis Insights placed him as fifth in 2024, compared to somewhere in the twenties in 2023.
But to this day Zverev’s forehand is neither a powerful weapon or a trusty shield in big matches, and my thesis is that this is technically driven. He’s got more moving parts and less racquet speed than someone like Sinner. At the top end of the game, that’s like having a smaller engine with the screws half-out. At some point it’s going to break.
The serve. If there is one shot where Zverev has the advantage tomorrow it is with the serve. The 6’6’’ German earned second place in Tennis Insights’ 2024 ranking, and he owns one of the best first-serve percentages in tennis at 71%, which is nearly 10% better than Sinner’s 61.4% for the last 52 weeks. Landing more than 70% will be key to Zverev’s chances, as he faces the best second-serve returner on the planet in Sinner. The Italian has won 56.1% of second-serve points in the last year, and if he gets too many looks at Zverev’s second-serve I think he will come out on top as the rallies extend. Both men have excelled in the 0-4 shot length stat in the last year, but I would wager for different reasons. Zverev’s is more serve related: he hits a few more aces and would probably get more looks at easier plus-one balls. Sinner’s is because his plus-one forehand is just so good; he can move around his backhand side so quickly, and he can deal power and control from that wing so well, even off balls he has no business attacking.
Note how Sinner is also ~5% better in the 9+ rally length on serve compared to Zverev. There’s not many points in a match that make up the 9+ stat, but keep an eye on that one tomorrow. Fitness. It has to be noted that this match could come down to who has more in the tank. Sinner has overcome illness in the fourth round against Rune, and leg cramps against Shelton in the semifinals on Friday. The Italian has improved that facet of his game over the last 18 months, but he certainly hasn’t looked unbreakable this fortnight. On the other side, Zverev has always been a physical beast. He’s the marathon man of tennis, and while he may crack mentally, you can bet he won’t physically, especially after playing just one set in his semifinal win over Djokovic. Those long limbs and slow-twitch swings are built for the modern baseline grind, and he will be looking to make this as physical as possible tomorrow with a full tank. Interestingly, their last grand slam match was at the 2023 US Open, which was a five set battle that Zverev eventually won. The longer this goes the more it helps Zverev.
The forehand drop shot. The Alcaraz-inspired drop shot renaissance may continue tomorrow in this matchup. Zverev is a great counterpuncher who can play well from deep positions. He enjoys guys coming at him with speed as he can hit the ball instinctively and use his reach from the corners. Sinner will adopt the more aggressive position of the two, and I think he will use his forehand drop shot to expose Zverev’s deep position and force the German to play closer to the baseline, where Sinner can then use his wrecking ball power to rush the big German more easily. Look at the impact of the Sinner drop shot from a recent Tennis Insights infographic. It pays to have power when you want to use touch:
I think the first set is going to be key for both men tomorrow for different reasons. For Zverev, the opening minutes will be a test of his nerves. He’s been here before — twice — and blown leads for grand slam glory. He’s already the best player to never win a slam; a fact he will be keen to remove himself from. The temptation is to get passive and lean on his counterpunching instincts, but I think that would be a mistake. Sinner won’t hesitate to take on anything short or weak. Zverev needs to serve big and take aggressive cuts on his forehand when presented with the opportunity. For Sinner, a slow start could hurt him down the track if it ends up becoming a physical and long match.
I’ll be back after the final with a recap.
See you in the comments. HC.
A fifth set would be interesting, because while I agree Zverev wants his matches as long as possible and Sinner possibly could breakdown then, a slam fifth set is also the ultimate pressure test. If Zverev’s FH hasn’t broken already by then, I think it would in a 5th set (similar to his Medvedev match last AO). So if I had to bet on this match going the distance, my money would be on Zverev’s FH betraying him again, not Sinner’s body
Hey Hugh, I've got a question on biomechanics: Should you actively lead with your elbow on the forehand (at Sinner it looks like he accelerates the elbow forward, not the hand)?