Djokovic vs Sinner: AO Semifinal Recap

off backhands — aggression — fitness

Jannik Sinner defeated Novak Djokovic 6/1 6/2 6/7 6/3 in the semifinals of the Australian Open on Friday to reach his maiden grand slam final. The Italian’s win snapped Djokovic’s perfect 20-0 semifinal record at the Aussie slam. Sinner will play Medvedev for the title on Sunday after the Russian came back from two sets down against Alexander Zverev.

Coming into the match Djokovic’s quarterfinal opponent, Taylor Fritz, was full of praise for the Serb:

Fritz: “I think one of the biggest things is just the fact that he’s so fast, he doesn’t really miss a lot of balls. He definitely makes you really work and hit quality shots to win points. But it’s also just the lack of free points he gives you…I never just hit a second serve and he misses it. That just doesn’t happen, even when I’m going after my second serve consistently 100-105 mph, jamming him. He still puts it on the baseline.”

Reporter: “Taylor, you’ve played Novak over a period of five years now. Do you see any signs that Novak is showing any kind of weaknesses? Maybe a little bit slower, maybe not hitting as hard, or is there no signs at all?”

Fritz: “No. From what I can recall from the first times we’ve played, to me, he is just as good as ever.”

A potent alchemy of asceticism and sports science have enabled Djokovic to wash away the freakish bodily sins of his trade; daily he rises and plays with the same feverish vigour of his NextGen rivals. One gets the impression there is a haggard portrait in his attic.

Yet today he faced a sinner of equal measure.

The opening exchange showcased the F1 nature of their styles; raw speed and power on lithe frames, rubber screaming on end-range slides. Everyone was strapped in:

Fritz’s comments came to mind: “He’s as good as ever.”

In recent slam victories — against Paul and Tsitsipas this event last year; Alcaraz at Roland Garros; and Shelton at the US Open — I’ve highlighted how effective Djokovic is at subtly attacking forehands from the middle with an off-backhand.

Today that play deserted him, and it was Sinner who was doing the off-backhand breaking early on.

It’s also worth noting that Sinner earned that break point off the back of great defence from his forehand corner; an area of the game that has been the Italian’s undoing in several losses to Djokovic. The end-range tolerance from that wing has improved in step with Sinner’s enhanced athleticism and physicality in recent months, and today it was excellent. The extra height and spin was obvious even from the pong-like camera angle, and the depth was better than Novak’s himself:

Sinner hitting heavier and deeper.

Sinner has always been a monster hitter, but now he is doing it with more consistency. That’ll work.

But 6-1 6-2 didn’t happen just because of Sinner.

Djokovic was off and off by a lot. The bedrock of his own game — the trusty double-hander — was misfiring at an alarming clip.

Sinner was clinical on his plus-one shot after the serve. Djokovic was not. Credit to Sinner for serving and returning better in this encounter.

A feature of Djokovic’s evolution as a player has been an uptick in aggression this decade. His 2023 ATP Finals win over Sinner — an astounding performance — was the perfect example; bigger serving on first and second; faster forehands; moving forward to volley more often. Compared to the counterpunching forerunner version that bagged his first dozen slams, the current play style is distinctly more offensive.

A decade ago Djokovic would have gone into lockdown mode and absorbed Sinner’s onslaught for hours. At 36 and change, that strategy may have expired against a player of Sinner’s calibre. The young Italian has a game reminiscent of peak Thiem and Wawrinka; huge power from both wings that can change the fates of rallies with one slash of the blade. Perhaps Sinner has more upside than those one-handed wonders by virtue of his unbelievable returning. Perhaps he’s already proven that. Since a five-set loss to Zverev at the US Open last year, Sinner has defeated Medvedev and Djokovic three times each and carved out a 28-2 record.¹

At the beginning of the third Djokovic’s level raised in proportion to his patience, but a weary grunt accompanied every swing, eventually bailing out with a drop shot. Sinner was downright librarian in comparison.

These fitness issues were evident last year; against Medvedev at the US Open he looked cooked after several long points. Serve-and-volley gave him an out that day. Sinner’s return position makes a similar strategy less viable.

Djokovic did find a great level in the third set, but even there he was lucky to steal the set, saving a match point at 5-6 down in the tie-breaker before closing it out 8-6.

“Right on cue.”

But the celebration was subdued. And in the opening points of the fourth the movement and shot selection looked shaky again. An attempted drop shot from behind the baseline found the net.

Sinner looked unperturbed, going back to business with end-range excellence to create a break chance immediately in the fourth:

Djokovic would save two break points with sharp serving and hold for 1-1.

Sinner holds easy. 2-1.

Djokovic races out to a 40-0 lead and feathers a backhand drop shot down the line. Sinner gets there and flicks it cross court for a winner. No biggie, 40-15.

From there Djokovic goes backhand error, double fault, forehand error, backhand error.

Game Sinner.

Until this point Djokovic had failed to generate even a single break point on Sinner’s serve. That had never happened in 417 grand slam matches.

But there’s a first time for everything, and Sinner’s game continued to fire all the way to the finish line, lacing a forehand up the line to seal the win.

It was an all too human performance for a man who had grown accustomed to eventually winning these matches.

A sign of things to come, or just one bad match? Only time will tell if this is finally the start of a downward arc.

“In a way I was shocked with my level, in a bad way. Not much I was doing right in the first two sets, and I guess this is one of the worst grand slams matches I have ever played.”

— Novak Djokovic

For Sinner, the future seems bright:

“The confidence from the end of last year has for sure kept the belief that I can play against the best players in the world. I'm really happy that I can play Sunday my first final. Let's see how it goes. But I'm really happy, I'll come here with a smile and I'll try my best.”

Sinner takes on Medvedev in the final of the Australian Open on Sunday.

1. losses to Djokovic and Shelton.