I really enjoyed reading this piece! Thank you so much for this recap. Your write-ups are always something I look forward reading 😊 As a Djokovic and Sinner fan, I feel like this match was underwhelming because of how off Djokovic was but Sinner’s mental composure was one of the big factors of sealing the match in 4 sets and it was just marvelous to see him win pressure points. Looking forward to seeing them both in other tournaments!
The oddsmakers don’t seem to favour Medvedev in the final but I see him beating carrot boy. I don’t see Sinner coming forward to exploit the octopus his deep return position. On top of that medvedevs groundstrokes stay nice and low which is gonna make it harder for sinner to unload.
It will be interesting to see how Medvedev recovers. He’s had a pretty brutal run to the final and will have to do a lot of running against Sinner, or take on a lot more risk. I do think it is a favourable matchup for Meddy though
Very nice article. I always love to read your analysis of matches. It is interesting to see that “the depth [of Sinner’s shots were] better than Novak’s himself.”
Statistically this has been Djokovic his worst performance in a grand slam since 2011.
Zoid back at it again with another great read. I'm starting to catch on to the lingo you use here but keep forgetting what do you mean by "end-range"?. Seems to always slip my mind that phrase you use. Also
1. Are there any examples of one-handed backhand players who frequently deployed the "off-backhand"?. I know whenever you mention it, it has only been for Nole's backhand or in today's case Sinner but I'm interested if there was a single hander example that was effective?.
2. Also intrigued by a part of this piece "The young Italian has a game reminiscent of peak Thiem and Wawrinka; huge power from both wings that can change the fates of rallies with one slash of the blade. Perhaps Sinner has more upside than those one-handed wonders by virtue of his unbelievable returning." When you said Sinner has more upside because of his return was it mainly due to the fact he returns two-handed on backhand side or was it just his skill of returning superseded theirs? or both?. If your answer has anything to do with him returning with two-hands on the backhand side as a contributing factor how would then a one-handed backhand player create for themselves an equal level of upside on their return rivalling that of a two-hander?.
end-range is when a player is stretched wide for a shot: stretch return, running backhand or forehand. many players are great when they are set and have their legs under them with time on the ball; few are damaging/consistent/great when stretched wide. I think Khachanov's forehand is a good example; he can crush it when set, but when on the run it's kittens. I touched on that in last year's semifinal recap of the AO:
1. Hmm not one that comes to mind. I always loved Almagro's and Stan's line backhand, but Novak's ability to use it so often and so consistently is unmatched.
2. A bit of both. A lot to do with the fact that he uses two-hands. That's almost a prerequisite these days to be an elite returner. But he's also quite tall and athletic; he gets his racquet on a lot of returns (taller than both thiem and stan). I'm not sure in today's game a one-hander can create an upside to returning. I've touched on players like Almagro and Kohlschreiber using the same side of the racquet to return before here:
the upside is in the rally where you can generate more spin and pace, but the actual return makes it difficult. I think a one-hander can give you a better block return. Federer is proof of that and was very good at returning big servers with a chip/slice backhand return,but I think this is sub-optimal against big plus-one hitters of the ball because they can hunt for forehands more often.
Is stability against returning today's serves what really invalidates a one-hander on the return or is there more to it because what if the dude returning with a one-hander had an arm wrestling background and uses a heavy racquet now it's not so much a question of does a serve from Shelton, Berrettini et al. push him back?.
What are critical factors would you say that sets the 2-handed return apart from 1-handed return (actual one-handed return like Almagro example not block, chip, slice or volley return)? And why can a 1-hander never be an elite returner in today's game, surely there must be a skill issue/learning curve once you reach the top percentile of ATP tour a talented one-hander can work over and join the ranks of Nole, Agassi and Murray e.g. in returning?.
well for the sake of argument let's assume a few things to make an ideal case. Let's assume the player uses the Almagro flip, so grip change isn't an issue. Then let's assume they are built like a bull as you suggest, so strength isn't an issue, and the player uses a heavy stick, so the frame is more stable on off-centre hits.
Well another perk of the two-hander is the ability to play the ball late. It may be *the* key perk of a 2HBh on return. You can play a topspin/powerful return with the ball almost behind you. Go back to my 2HBH article and check out the photo of Tiafoe returning:
The one-hander, especially an extreme grip one-hander (that would be necessary if we are doing the Almagro flip) needs to make contact in front of the body more (otherwise the strings are too closed; the ball can't get over the net).
When serves are coming down 220/230 kmh, having that extra time and ability to play the ball later may be a crucial factor.
This is the main reason in my mind. 2HBH's can play topspin and control the redirection while they are out of position with their body.
> Are there any examples of one-handed backhand players who frequently deployed the "off-backhand"?
definitely Becker and Laver, and perhaps McEnroe
> When you said Sinner has more upside because of his return was it mainly due to the fact he returns two-handed on backhand side or was it just his skill of returning superseded theirs? or both?. If your answer has anything to do with him returning with two-hands on the backhand side as a contributing factor how would then a one-handed backhand player create for themselves an equal level of upside on their return rivalling that of a two-hander?.
i think one-handers' slightly greater reach and greater dynamism (what Hugh would probably refer to as extra degrees of freedom) actually gives them better resistance on 1st returns, while two-handers' general solidity eventually pays greater dividends on 2nd returns. see: prime Federer outperforming prime Djokovic and prime Murray in 1st return win % on grass, but not doing so on 2nd returns (& notably Murray as the posterchild for returning consistency being around 3 percentage points ahead of even Djokovic in this latter stat).
wrt Sinner vs Wawrinka/Thiem, i think Sinner is a better ballstriker on the backhand in that he isn't so reliant on needing time to setup and he does better against a variety of types of balls.
Great article. I wonder if a stat like average serve/forehand/backhand speeds each set would be a better measure of "fitness", as opposed to hearing Djokovic grunting more. I don't know if the speed data is available for this match though. I also don't think it's a perfect stat since some players might start hitting the ball bigger to avoid long rallies. So, maybe average serving speed by set would be better?
yeah all valid points for sure. It gets messy too if a player starts slicing a lot; you don't want that to be included in shot speed data, or adding slower slice/body serves as a legitimate tactic. I was just using the old eye test.
It’s not the same as playing someone injured, which can be very difficult mentally, but I think it’s hard to stay on against someone who has been off for a long stretch but then starts to play well, as Djokovic did in the third and patches of the fourth. Yet Sinner kept his level even after dropping the third in a tough way. He was locked in the whole time
Great recap!! Very interesting analysis. I wonder if this finally the changing of the guard. Djokovic may have had a an off day or… He is being perceived by Sinner as the less dominant player. Sinner can now out play him and Djokovic no longer believes that he can beat an opponent that is better. The same happened with Wawrinka. The difference is that Sinner is MUCH younger and Nole is older. Djokovic may not win any more slams. Alcaraz can handle him at Wimbledon. Sinner on every other surface. Then he will have to fight off Medvedev, Zverev, Rune…
Or will Nole rebound like he did after his Wimbledon loss last year?
This was enjoyable to read, except at the end. Please do not be one of those people who, every time Djokovic is off and loses, makes the mistake of writing him off. Nole will come back stronger and more motivated after this disappointment and win more slams this year.
I really enjoyed reading this piece! Thank you so much for this recap. Your write-ups are always something I look forward reading 😊 As a Djokovic and Sinner fan, I feel like this match was underwhelming because of how off Djokovic was but Sinner’s mental composure was one of the big factors of sealing the match in 4 sets and it was just marvelous to see him win pressure points. Looking forward to seeing them both in other tournaments!
Thanks for the words of encouragement, Donna!
The oddsmakers don’t seem to favour Medvedev in the final but I see him beating carrot boy. I don’t see Sinner coming forward to exploit the octopus his deep return position. On top of that medvedevs groundstrokes stay nice and low which is gonna make it harder for sinner to unload.
It will be interesting to see how Medvedev recovers. He’s had a pretty brutal run to the final and will have to do a lot of running against Sinner, or take on a lot more risk. I do think it is a favourable matchup for Meddy though
I wonder if Sinner's second serve is underrated? I'm not a serve expert, so I'm curious what the experts think.
Really went after it today on some big points.
Great article as always Hugh. On the third set, I was worried this was going to be like the Sinner v Djoker Wimbledon 2022 match.
Very nice article. I always love to read your analysis of matches. It is interesting to see that “the depth [of Sinner’s shots were] better than Novak’s himself.”
Statistically this has been Djokovic his worst performance in a grand slam since 2011.
Zoid back at it again with another great read. I'm starting to catch on to the lingo you use here but keep forgetting what do you mean by "end-range"?. Seems to always slip my mind that phrase you use. Also
1. Are there any examples of one-handed backhand players who frequently deployed the "off-backhand"?. I know whenever you mention it, it has only been for Nole's backhand or in today's case Sinner but I'm interested if there was a single hander example that was effective?.
2. Also intrigued by a part of this piece "The young Italian has a game reminiscent of peak Thiem and Wawrinka; huge power from both wings that can change the fates of rallies with one slash of the blade. Perhaps Sinner has more upside than those one-handed wonders by virtue of his unbelievable returning." When you said Sinner has more upside because of his return was it mainly due to the fact he returns two-handed on backhand side or was it just his skill of returning superseded theirs? or both?. If your answer has anything to do with him returning with two-hands on the backhand side as a contributing factor how would then a one-handed backhand player create for themselves an equal level of upside on their return rivalling that of a two-hander?.
end-range is when a player is stretched wide for a shot: stretch return, running backhand or forehand. many players are great when they are set and have their legs under them with time on the ball; few are damaging/consistent/great when stretched wide. I think Khachanov's forehand is a good example; he can crush it when set, but when on the run it's kittens. I touched on that in last year's semifinal recap of the AO:
https://hughclarke.substack.com/p/ao-semi-finals-recap-and-final-preview
1. Hmm not one that comes to mind. I always loved Almagro's and Stan's line backhand, but Novak's ability to use it so often and so consistently is unmatched.
2. A bit of both. A lot to do with the fact that he uses two-hands. That's almost a prerequisite these days to be an elite returner. But he's also quite tall and athletic; he gets his racquet on a lot of returns (taller than both thiem and stan). I'm not sure in today's game a one-hander can create an upside to returning. I've touched on players like Almagro and Kohlschreiber using the same side of the racquet to return before here:
https://hughclarke.substack.com/p/the-one-handed-backhand
the upside is in the rally where you can generate more spin and pace, but the actual return makes it difficult. I think a one-hander can give you a better block return. Federer is proof of that and was very good at returning big servers with a chip/slice backhand return,but I think this is sub-optimal against big plus-one hitters of the ball because they can hunt for forehands more often.
Is stability against returning today's serves what really invalidates a one-hander on the return or is there more to it because what if the dude returning with a one-hander had an arm wrestling background and uses a heavy racquet now it's not so much a question of does a serve from Shelton, Berrettini et al. push him back?.
What are critical factors would you say that sets the 2-handed return apart from 1-handed return (actual one-handed return like Almagro example not block, chip, slice or volley return)? And why can a 1-hander never be an elite returner in today's game, surely there must be a skill issue/learning curve once you reach the top percentile of ATP tour a talented one-hander can work over and join the ranks of Nole, Agassi and Murray e.g. in returning?.
well for the sake of argument let's assume a few things to make an ideal case. Let's assume the player uses the Almagro flip, so grip change isn't an issue. Then let's assume they are built like a bull as you suggest, so strength isn't an issue, and the player uses a heavy stick, so the frame is more stable on off-centre hits.
Well another perk of the two-hander is the ability to play the ball late. It may be *the* key perk of a 2HBh on return. You can play a topspin/powerful return with the ball almost behind you. Go back to my 2HBH article and check out the photo of Tiafoe returning:
https://hughclarke.substack.com/p/the-two-handed-backhandagain
The one-hander, especially an extreme grip one-hander (that would be necessary if we are doing the Almagro flip) needs to make contact in front of the body more (otherwise the strings are too closed; the ball can't get over the net).
When serves are coming down 220/230 kmh, having that extra time and ability to play the ball later may be a crucial factor.
This is the main reason in my mind. 2HBH's can play topspin and control the redirection while they are out of position with their body.
> Are there any examples of one-handed backhand players who frequently deployed the "off-backhand"?
definitely Becker and Laver, and perhaps McEnroe
> When you said Sinner has more upside because of his return was it mainly due to the fact he returns two-handed on backhand side or was it just his skill of returning superseded theirs? or both?. If your answer has anything to do with him returning with two-hands on the backhand side as a contributing factor how would then a one-handed backhand player create for themselves an equal level of upside on their return rivalling that of a two-hander?.
i think one-handers' slightly greater reach and greater dynamism (what Hugh would probably refer to as extra degrees of freedom) actually gives them better resistance on 1st returns, while two-handers' general solidity eventually pays greater dividends on 2nd returns. see: prime Federer outperforming prime Djokovic and prime Murray in 1st return win % on grass, but not doing so on 2nd returns (& notably Murray as the posterchild for returning consistency being around 3 percentage points ahead of even Djokovic in this latter stat).
wrt Sinner vs Wawrinka/Thiem, i think Sinner is a better ballstriker on the backhand in that he isn't so reliant on needing time to setup and he does better against a variety of types of balls.
Great article. I wonder if a stat like average serve/forehand/backhand speeds each set would be a better measure of "fitness", as opposed to hearing Djokovic grunting more. I don't know if the speed data is available for this match though. I also don't think it's a perfect stat since some players might start hitting the ball bigger to avoid long rallies. So, maybe average serving speed by set would be better?
yeah all valid points for sure. It gets messy too if a player starts slicing a lot; you don't want that to be included in shot speed data, or adding slower slice/body serves as a legitimate tactic. I was just using the old eye test.
Great write up. Yes, Djokovic was OFF (and on), but Sinner was decidely ON, and you explained the ways well.
Maybe this isn’t true at the professional
level, but I still have to imagine that it’s mentally difficult to be so ON when someone playing OFF (and on). Thoughts?
It’s not the same as playing someone injured, which can be very difficult mentally, but I think it’s hard to stay on against someone who has been off for a long stretch but then starts to play well, as Djokovic did in the third and patches of the fourth. Yet Sinner kept his level even after dropping the third in a tough way. He was locked in the whole time
Great recap!! Very interesting analysis. I wonder if this finally the changing of the guard. Djokovic may have had a an off day or… He is being perceived by Sinner as the less dominant player. Sinner can now out play him and Djokovic no longer believes that he can beat an opponent that is better. The same happened with Wawrinka. The difference is that Sinner is MUCH younger and Nole is older. Djokovic may not win any more slams. Alcaraz can handle him at Wimbledon. Sinner on every other surface. Then he will have to fight off Medvedev, Zverev, Rune…
Or will Nole rebound like he did after his Wimbledon loss last year?
Of course he will rebound. One match doesn't make a trend.
It’s the three of the last four matches that I’m thinking about. I am thinking that Sinner will be the next number 1. We will know more after Sunday.
This was enjoyable to read, except at the end. Please do not be one of those people who, every time Djokovic is off and loses, makes the mistake of writing him off. Nole will come back stronger and more motivated after this disappointment and win more slams this year.
Did I write him off? I’m pretty sure I just asked the question…