holstered backhands — the eastern bloc — return numbers — the roast of Tsitsipas — Alcaraz is a genius and we're all idiots — Dimitrov's slice (of bad luck)
Sinner is a lucky boy, and it's such a shame for Dimitrov to injure himself while playing so well.
In other news, I had the chance to go to Wimbledon in Week 1. Saw a set of Fonseca, Rublev, couple sets of Alcaraz. Up close, Alcaraz's intangibles on grass are too good. he just knows when to move forward, when to hit the slice, how to turn a point around on this surface. Doesn't feel like he slows down on the grass like some others. Alcaraz's FH also has a sound off the strings that I have never heard from any other player.
Fonseca vs Brooksby was an absolute thriller. Court 12 had a queue before the match even started. The crowd love that kid, and his game is so powerful. Rublev vs Harris was the perfect encapsulation of that graph of Return made vs Return points won. I was seeing Rubles miss so many returns but whenever he made the return, he would get a good cut on it and immediately be on the front foot.
At the Aus Open I had to line up for 75 minutes before getting into a smaller stadium court for Fonseca vs Sonego. The Brazilians create an amazing atmosphere for him everywhere
Is this the first time that Sinner faced such a lethal slice backhand? I am quite perplexed that he found it so difficult to handle this, especially since everyone knows it's a weapon for Dimitrov. Curious if Djokovic may employ it also in their semifinal.
Hard to know how much his arm was playing a factor as well, but no I think Sinner has played other slicers a bunch (Evans in Beijing 23, Berrettini at Wimbledon, and Dimitrov multiple times) but I've always felt it's a good shot against him because he is the best at trading speed and power, so most players are not going to have a good time doing that. Sinner has to get through Shelton first! Ditto Djoker against Cobolli, although that one seems a likely win for the Serb
Hey Hugh, as you've written that players like Zverev, Tsitsipas, Rublev etc. have not developed some new shots or improved their weaknesses, what do you think is the reason for that? I mean - they're the top athletes in their sport and should know how whre they need to improve and how they can improve that. It is impossible that they simply "can't" hit some types of shots, if they really wanted to. Is it a lack of coaching focus or what would you say?
It's pretty hard to make changes once at the tour level! There isn't much of an off-season, and all their strokes are so grooved already, so I tip my hat to guys who do make adjustments mid-season. All these guys know their weaknesses, but most focus on their strengths and try to make them as good as they can, and hope the weaknesses hold up, it's called a strengths-based approach, rather than a deficit-based approach to coaching, and research suggests it boosts confidence. Also, it's easy to pick out what the weaknesses are, much harder to find elegant and/or workable solutions tailored to the player's game already.
Generally I think all these guys are stuck in a positive feedback loop from their junior ascent into the pros. They won a lot of matches playing a certain way. It's hard to break that pattern. Secondarily, I think it's clear that their development either failed to implement variety (net play, slice, etc.) or missed a weakness that would get abused later in their careers.
And how common are Eastern FH grips for the lower hand on BHs?
Is that something Fritz and/or guys with full Western FHs will do to reduce the number of bevels they have to move over on grip changes? Or more just coincidence in how he developed as a youth?
They're not that uncommon. I'd say Fritz's is not a clear bevel 3, probably 3/2 ish. I think Tommy Paul is there abouts. Bernard tomic. Tiafoe is the most conservative/true bevel 3 one I can think of. I think that combination of more extreme forehand grip, coupled with growing up on lower bouncing fast courts definitely creates the environment for that grip to emerge. Helps dig out fast and low balls, and unsurprisingly all those guys I listed are great at hitting and returning low flat pace.
Do you have any sense of how serious Sinner's injury is? Also, at this stage, I think it is just about impossible for Djokovic to beat Alcaraz. Alcaraz has so much power and I expect will dominate the rallies.
I really liked your quantitative numbers on the "heaviest" slice bh out there of Grigor's. I have long felt that now tge Roger is retired, Grigor had the best slice bh on Tour, even though a lot of folks have leaned toward Dan Evans.
For consistency and end-range ability I take Evans over Dimitrov, but they both have really good slices. Musetti another great slicer, Matteo gets a lot of action on his. Splitting hairs really.
That quantitative graphic is a bit non-saying since Hugh keeps on repeating that the best slice is Alcaraz's because he can dish it in the feet, lower than the net at the end-reach.
Otherwise, a "rallye" slice, even Federer's decreases the win point percentage : elite ATP is a ball striking bonanza as a whole and it is reflected by the domination of Sinncaraz who are the best ball-strikers by far.
True Dimitrov was winning thanks to a good use of slices against Sinner, but the better player as a whole remains the latter.
I am only referring to the slice bh. I personally prefer Grigor's to Alcaraz. No doubt Sinner and Alcaraz have a overall better bh than Grigor. That is pretty obvious.
But overall, slice in the big scheme of things became a low-quality shot. If you used a Stroke-gained approach like in Golf, I am sure that any rallye slices lowers point winning %
Evans with his small stature and lack of power gets very overwhelmed in groundstrokes and his slice can scavenge many points but not enough.
The ball striking bonanza punched me in the face when I was at the French Open (I came for 3rd round Qualies, 4th Round and the Final). For example, Basillasvihvili vs Blancaneaux in Qualy really showed the issue of being outmatched in rallye tolerance and power : Blancaneaux was lacking power and could not hit enough driven shot (strike zone too small).
When you compare with Sinner and Alcaraz who barely slice and hit big between the knees and shoulder...
I don't think low-quality is the right word. I'd say it's very match-up and situation-dependent. Evans, for example, has a great collection of H2H's against very flat two-handed backhand players who are statistically higher ranked and more accomplished than he: If you combine his record vs Khachanov (5-1!), Tommy Paul (2-1), Tiafoe (4-6), Fritz (2-1), de minaur (3-1), rublev (3-4), he's 19-14. In these match-ups, the slice low crosscourt is an extremely high quality shot. The problem is that "in the big scheme of things" , so few players have a great slice to deploy, because of the dominance of the two-hander making it less likely for them to also work at developing a great slice. That's where Alcaraz is pretty unique.
Thanks for your development and fleshing it, I did have been a bit provocative but from an opportunity cost POV, I think the reward is better with improving movement and ball-striking tolerance rather than developing a slice as a tactical mix-up tool (Obviously that doesn't apply to Tsitsipas whose bh slice is beyond miserable).
And for once, the ladies with their crouching might inspire some guys !
Weird week at Wimbledon with so many seeds falling. But in the end, it's looking like the four guys a lot of people predicted would be in the semifinals - Sinner if his elbow's fine, Djokovic, Fritz won a little while ago, and Alcaraz. Those were my four semifinal picks, although the only other quarterfinalist I picked correctly was Shelton (I picked Mensik, Zverev, and Lehecka)
cream rises to the top in slams! I found it so hard to pick Fritz given his first few rounds (and that was a lucky escape). Let's see how Sinner's elbow is. Nothing less than 95-100% will do against Shelton's power I reckon.
I missed the beginning of the match so I watched the first game with great interest on replay. Sinner looked very good on Dimi's serve, the game went to deuce when he fell. It was a messy fall, involving both elbows from the look of it. And he absolutely looked out of sorts from that moment on. Fingers crossed he recovers completely. If he is near 100%, I doubt he'll have that much trouble against Shelton, but I don't think he makes it past Novak, who I imagine will have an even easier time, a straightforward three setter against someone who has never made it this far in a major...
It looked so innocuous, but clearly bothered him; his whole game was just way off the power and consistency he usually brings. partly Dimi's doing also :)
Wonderfull article ! you adressed so many interesting points ! I hope Sinner elbow pain is nothing too serious and we can have a great quarte final ( and explosive match ) with Shelton bombing every ball lmao
Can Sinner's performance against Dimitrov be chalked down to his injury in the first set?
Hypothetically, would a 100% fit Sinner not be 2 sets down? Or would Sinner be pushed to the limit but might have been able to hang in more as there were considerable more UE's than normal for him?
Very hard to know for sure. I think Dimitrov's whole game was working very well. The serve was as good as ever, the forehand was great except it got a little shaky at 5-4 in the second set where he got broken, and his usual weakness -- the backhand -- was not bleeding errors and still getting short balls/missed replies because of how low and biting his slice was. For sure Sinner looked a little off; the whole game seemed out of sync, but at worst I think Grigor would have found himself in a couple of tie-breakers. But we are all just speculating
Do you suggest that Sinner and Djokovic could fake a discomfort to disturb their opponent ? I would have believed that any négative expression would be encouraging for their opponent .
It can work both ways, but playing possum can often work in a player's favour. Sometimes if you feel something very slight, a player might take an injury timeout to kill the rhythm of an opponent, or make them adjust their tactics, or shift their attention from the match to the player's condition
Do you suggest that Sinner and Djokovic could fake a discomfort to disturb their opponent ? I would have believed that any négative expression would be encouraging for their opponent .
Do you suggest that Sinner and Djokovic could fake a discomfort to disturb their opponent ? I would have believed that any négative expression would be encouraging for their opponent .
Sinner is a lucky boy, and it's such a shame for Dimitrov to injure himself while playing so well.
In other news, I had the chance to go to Wimbledon in Week 1. Saw a set of Fonseca, Rublev, couple sets of Alcaraz. Up close, Alcaraz's intangibles on grass are too good. he just knows when to move forward, when to hit the slice, how to turn a point around on this surface. Doesn't feel like he slows down on the grass like some others. Alcaraz's FH also has a sound off the strings that I have never heard from any other player.
Fonseca vs Brooksby was an absolute thriller. Court 12 had a queue before the match even started. The crowd love that kid, and his game is so powerful. Rublev vs Harris was the perfect encapsulation of that graph of Return made vs Return points won. I was seeing Rubles miss so many returns but whenever he made the return, he would get a good cut on it and immediately be on the front foot.
At the Aus Open I had to line up for 75 minutes before getting into a smaller stadium court for Fonseca vs Sonego. The Brazilians create an amazing atmosphere for him everywhere
Is this the first time that Sinner faced such a lethal slice backhand? I am quite perplexed that he found it so difficult to handle this, especially since everyone knows it's a weapon for Dimitrov. Curious if Djokovic may employ it also in their semifinal.
Hard to know how much his arm was playing a factor as well, but no I think Sinner has played other slicers a bunch (Evans in Beijing 23, Berrettini at Wimbledon, and Dimitrov multiple times) but I've always felt it's a good shot against him because he is the best at trading speed and power, so most players are not going to have a good time doing that. Sinner has to get through Shelton first! Ditto Djoker against Cobolli, although that one seems a likely win for the Serb
Hey Hugh, as you've written that players like Zverev, Tsitsipas, Rublev etc. have not developed some new shots or improved their weaknesses, what do you think is the reason for that? I mean - they're the top athletes in their sport and should know how whre they need to improve and how they can improve that. It is impossible that they simply "can't" hit some types of shots, if they really wanted to. Is it a lack of coaching focus or what would you say?
It's pretty hard to make changes once at the tour level! There isn't much of an off-season, and all their strokes are so grooved already, so I tip my hat to guys who do make adjustments mid-season. All these guys know their weaknesses, but most focus on their strengths and try to make them as good as they can, and hope the weaknesses hold up, it's called a strengths-based approach, rather than a deficit-based approach to coaching, and research suggests it boosts confidence. Also, it's easy to pick out what the weaknesses are, much harder to find elegant and/or workable solutions tailored to the player's game already.
In this case, do you think Sinner is just more talented than his slightly older fellows, or did he simply work more on his weaknessess?
Generally I think all these guys are stuck in a positive feedback loop from their junior ascent into the pros. They won a lot of matches playing a certain way. It's hard to break that pattern. Secondarily, I think it's clear that their development either failed to implement variety (net play, slice, etc.) or missed a weakness that would get abused later in their careers.
Stylistically I think that's true. We se that with Draper a lot, having grown up as a small counterpuncher, that style bleeds into big points often.
They were able to win a lot of tourneys as juniors without going to the net
How much of that lower BH prep from Fonseca is just a natural reaction to lower incoming balls on grass?
could be, although there are players like Zverev who just never do that.
And how common are Eastern FH grips for the lower hand on BHs?
Is that something Fritz and/or guys with full Western FHs will do to reduce the number of bevels they have to move over on grip changes? Or more just coincidence in how he developed as a youth?
They're not that uncommon. I'd say Fritz's is not a clear bevel 3, probably 3/2 ish. I think Tommy Paul is there abouts. Bernard tomic. Tiafoe is the most conservative/true bevel 3 one I can think of. I think that combination of more extreme forehand grip, coupled with growing up on lower bouncing fast courts definitely creates the environment for that grip to emerge. Helps dig out fast and low balls, and unsurprisingly all those guys I listed are great at hitting and returning low flat pace.
Great stuff as always mate
Do you have any sense of how serious Sinner's injury is? Also, at this stage, I think it is just about impossible for Djokovic to beat Alcaraz. Alcaraz has so much power and I expect will dominate the rallies.
No idea! I only heard he hit for 30 mins yesterday and was going to give it a go.
I really liked your quantitative numbers on the "heaviest" slice bh out there of Grigor's. I have long felt that now tge Roger is retired, Grigor had the best slice bh on Tour, even though a lot of folks have leaned toward Dan Evans.
For consistency and end-range ability I take Evans over Dimitrov, but they both have really good slices. Musetti another great slicer, Matteo gets a lot of action on his. Splitting hairs really.
I'm curious: how would you compare Federer's slice to the best slices currently on tour?
That quantitative graphic is a bit non-saying since Hugh keeps on repeating that the best slice is Alcaraz's because he can dish it in the feet, lower than the net at the end-reach.
Otherwise, a "rallye" slice, even Federer's decreases the win point percentage : elite ATP is a ball striking bonanza as a whole and it is reflected by the domination of Sinncaraz who are the best ball-strikers by far.
True Dimitrov was winning thanks to a good use of slices against Sinner, but the better player as a whole remains the latter.
I am only referring to the slice bh. I personally prefer Grigor's to Alcaraz. No doubt Sinner and Alcaraz have a overall better bh than Grigor. That is pretty obvious.
I agree. Carlos has a great slice bh
Alcaraz doesn't use the rallye slice because he can crush the backhand with much more tolerance than Dimitrov.
But his recourse to the slice are always on point and exquisite !
I think Alcaraz is the best at that specific slice shot, but overall I think Evans has more overall ability with his slice
But overall, slice in the big scheme of things became a low-quality shot. If you used a Stroke-gained approach like in Golf, I am sure that any rallye slices lowers point winning %
Evans with his small stature and lack of power gets very overwhelmed in groundstrokes and his slice can scavenge many points but not enough.
The ball striking bonanza punched me in the face when I was at the French Open (I came for 3rd round Qualies, 4th Round and the Final). For example, Basillasvihvili vs Blancaneaux in Qualy really showed the issue of being outmatched in rallye tolerance and power : Blancaneaux was lacking power and could not hit enough driven shot (strike zone too small).
When you compare with Sinner and Alcaraz who barely slice and hit big between the knees and shoulder...
I don't think low-quality is the right word. I'd say it's very match-up and situation-dependent. Evans, for example, has a great collection of H2H's against very flat two-handed backhand players who are statistically higher ranked and more accomplished than he: If you combine his record vs Khachanov (5-1!), Tommy Paul (2-1), Tiafoe (4-6), Fritz (2-1), de minaur (3-1), rublev (3-4), he's 19-14. In these match-ups, the slice low crosscourt is an extremely high quality shot. The problem is that "in the big scheme of things" , so few players have a great slice to deploy, because of the dominance of the two-hander making it less likely for them to also work at developing a great slice. That's where Alcaraz is pretty unique.
Thanks for your development and fleshing it, I did have been a bit provocative but from an opportunity cost POV, I think the reward is better with improving movement and ball-striking tolerance rather than developing a slice as a tactical mix-up tool (Obviously that doesn't apply to Tsitsipas whose bh slice is beyond miserable).
And for once, the ladies with their crouching might inspire some guys !
Weird week at Wimbledon with so many seeds falling. But in the end, it's looking like the four guys a lot of people predicted would be in the semifinals - Sinner if his elbow's fine, Djokovic, Fritz won a little while ago, and Alcaraz. Those were my four semifinal picks, although the only other quarterfinalist I picked correctly was Shelton (I picked Mensik, Zverev, and Lehecka)
cream rises to the top in slams! I found it so hard to pick Fritz given his first few rounds (and that was a lucky escape). Let's see how Sinner's elbow is. Nothing less than 95-100% will do against Shelton's power I reckon.
"a liability with lipstick" - love this!!
I missed the beginning of the match so I watched the first game with great interest on replay. Sinner looked very good on Dimi's serve, the game went to deuce when he fell. It was a messy fall, involving both elbows from the look of it. And he absolutely looked out of sorts from that moment on. Fingers crossed he recovers completely. If he is near 100%, I doubt he'll have that much trouble against Shelton, but I don't think he makes it past Novak, who I imagine will have an even easier time, a straightforward three setter against someone who has never made it this far in a major...
It looked so innocuous, but clearly bothered him; his whole game was just way off the power and consistency he usually brings. partly Dimi's doing also :)
Wonderfull article ! you adressed so many interesting points ! I hope Sinner elbow pain is nothing too serious and we can have a great quarte final ( and explosive match ) with Shelton bombing every ball lmao
yes I'm hoping that elbow was nothing major; I think it could be a great match
Can Sinner's performance against Dimitrov be chalked down to his injury in the first set?
Hypothetically, would a 100% fit Sinner not be 2 sets down? Or would Sinner be pushed to the limit but might have been able to hang in more as there were considerable more UE's than normal for him?
Excellent article.
Very hard to know for sure. I think Dimitrov's whole game was working very well. The serve was as good as ever, the forehand was great except it got a little shaky at 5-4 in the second set where he got broken, and his usual weakness -- the backhand -- was not bleeding errors and still getting short balls/missed replies because of how low and biting his slice was. For sure Sinner looked a little off; the whole game seemed out of sync, but at worst I think Grigor would have found himself in a couple of tie-breakers. But we are all just speculating
Purely televised observation, but I get the feeling Sinner, not unlike Novak, gets very uncomfortable with the slightest twinge. Almost psychosomatic.
I think some guys like to play it out more as a psychological element for their opponent to deal with, more than psychosomatic self-convincing.
Do you suggest that Sinner and Djokovic could fake a discomfort to disturb their opponent ? I would have believed that any négative expression would be encouraging for their opponent .
It can work both ways, but playing possum can often work in a player's favour. Sometimes if you feel something very slight, a player might take an injury timeout to kill the rhythm of an opponent, or make them adjust their tactics, or shift their attention from the match to the player's condition
Do you suggest that Sinner and Djokovic could fake a discomfort to disturb their opponent ? I would have believed that any négative expression would be encouraging for their opponent .
Do you suggest that Sinner and Djokovic could fake a discomfort to disturb their opponent ? I would have believed that any négative expression would be encouraging for their opponent .