Don't know if you heard the news story about the bettor that put down $25,000 on Alcaraz at -$10,000 vs Van de Zandschulp, but if he had won, it would have only been a $250 payout. As it was, it turned into a very expensive lesson on no guarantees in sports. The quarters are very interesting. I would go with all your picks with the exception on Fritz vs Zverev. I like Fritz in the upset in that one.
As far as the two big upsets we saw yesterday, my takeaways differ a bit from yours.
I agree with you Alcaraz hasn't developed a lock-down yet, but I think the fast HCs that both AO and US Open play with have a huge part of that. He is forced to play a faster, more stereotypical brand of tennis that doesn't really suit his longer FH swing, and the fact that his overall game shines when he has time and options to make full use of his intangibles and variation, while still playing an attacking brand of tennis. On bad days I guess his FH will just have a worse W/UE ratio than at Indian Wells where he has the time to time it better and it's easier to switch to the safer/heavier, Nadal-esque FH you mentioned. I think we have enough data to suggest fast HC is his 'worst' surface (especially indoor, grass being the exception in faster lower boucing surfaces for many reasons)
As for Novak, maybe I'm over-protecting him, but I'm not sold on a decline quite yet. His average level has gone down for sure, but he was affected by all kinds of problems throughout the year : wrist and sickness in Australia, the knee in Wimbledon (and maybe still affects him today), and now the back at US Open that resulted in the worst serve he ever had. I don't believe we should expect another serving performance like that from a healthier Novak, the same goes for his movement, and FH.
The fact he came in with little to no preparation surely didn't help either. So that's what I mean : it is now more difficult for him than ever to be 100% fit and in perfect shape, but if he maintains it for 2 weeks, I believe he is still in the mix for slam-contending close to what he did in 2023 (which to me was a bit of a "lucky" year in contrast to this year), unlike someone with a technical flaw that affects his level in a more durable way.
But again, maybe I'm a bit delusional. The knee and age combined may have made a more durable/definitive hit to his movement and ball striking, and maybe the motivation just won't be there to reach that 2 week peak performance window that could just be harder and harder to find (mentally too, as we saw him sometimes disengaged through the year, like at AO against Sinner). And maybe I should be more concerned by some performances (AO against Sinner again, and Alcaraz at Wimbledon) on areas that don't have a fitness explanation, altough what he did at the net back then was not decline-related to me, more like a complete off day that now he can't win through anymore.
Yeah i think you're right that fast hard is his worst surface, but I still think there are so many other avenues for him to attack – with his backhand, intangibles, footspeed – that he could explore when on faster hard courts, rather than try and blast the forehand everytime.
Re Novak, time will tell, but he's 38 next year and coming back from surgeries and coming back from breaks in general are only going to get harder for the body.
Don't know if you heard the news story about the bettor that put down $25,000 on Alcaraz at -$10,000 vs Van de Zandschulp, but if he had won, it would have only been a $250 payout. As it was, it turned into a very expensive lesson on no guarantees in sports. The quarters are very interesting. I would go with all your picks with the exception on Fritz vs Zverev. I like Fritz in the upset in that one.
Crazy. Nice pick with Fritz!
I'm against tournaments rigging draws unless it's for Dan Evans to play Grigor Dimitrov
A man of good taste
Hi Hugh,
Thanks for the analysis, as always.
As far as the two big upsets we saw yesterday, my takeaways differ a bit from yours.
I agree with you Alcaraz hasn't developed a lock-down yet, but I think the fast HCs that both AO and US Open play with have a huge part of that. He is forced to play a faster, more stereotypical brand of tennis that doesn't really suit his longer FH swing, and the fact that his overall game shines when he has time and options to make full use of his intangibles and variation, while still playing an attacking brand of tennis. On bad days I guess his FH will just have a worse W/UE ratio than at Indian Wells where he has the time to time it better and it's easier to switch to the safer/heavier, Nadal-esque FH you mentioned. I think we have enough data to suggest fast HC is his 'worst' surface (especially indoor, grass being the exception in faster lower boucing surfaces for many reasons)
As for Novak, maybe I'm over-protecting him, but I'm not sold on a decline quite yet. His average level has gone down for sure, but he was affected by all kinds of problems throughout the year : wrist and sickness in Australia, the knee in Wimbledon (and maybe still affects him today), and now the back at US Open that resulted in the worst serve he ever had. I don't believe we should expect another serving performance like that from a healthier Novak, the same goes for his movement, and FH.
The fact he came in with little to no preparation surely didn't help either. So that's what I mean : it is now more difficult for him than ever to be 100% fit and in perfect shape, but if he maintains it for 2 weeks, I believe he is still in the mix for slam-contending close to what he did in 2023 (which to me was a bit of a "lucky" year in contrast to this year), unlike someone with a technical flaw that affects his level in a more durable way.
But again, maybe I'm a bit delusional. The knee and age combined may have made a more durable/definitive hit to his movement and ball striking, and maybe the motivation just won't be there to reach that 2 week peak performance window that could just be harder and harder to find (mentally too, as we saw him sometimes disengaged through the year, like at AO against Sinner). And maybe I should be more concerned by some performances (AO against Sinner again, and Alcaraz at Wimbledon) on areas that don't have a fitness explanation, altough what he did at the net back then was not decline-related to me, more like a complete off day that now he can't win through anymore.
Yeah i think you're right that fast hard is his worst surface, but I still think there are so many other avenues for him to attack – with his backhand, intangibles, footspeed – that he could explore when on faster hard courts, rather than try and blast the forehand everytime.
Re Novak, time will tell, but he's 38 next year and coming back from surgeries and coming back from breaks in general are only going to get harder for the body.