Week 1 US Open Recap

upsets — plackets — middleweight tennis — predictions

Upsets

Thankfully I didn’t find the time to post a draw preview with my predictions. I had some second-week names penciled in that barely had time to unpack their Nike and Lacoste kits. Speaking of kits, Fila won for the men this year, with this sand and navy pinstriped classic top, splashed with a ‘Yonex bumper guard red’ placket (learned a new word). Nakashima lost in four sets to Zverev on Sunday.

Brandon Björn Nakashima

It’s worth noting that the US Open historically is where the most upsets do happen, and only Federer has defended his US Open title this century.

In fact, betting blindly on all underdogs from 2010 to 2023 would have ‘only’ resulted in a -4.6% negative yield, according to Twitter user @nishikoripicks.

Image source: @nishikoripicks

Why is this? It’s impossible to know for sure, but I do think season fatigue is one factor. We’re into the ninth month of the season and there’s still Davis Cup, the Asian swing, European indoor swing, ATP Finals, etc. Oh, and then a bunch of these guys will front up for exhibitions in December before heading Down Under at Christmas to do it all again in January. Would a longer off-season result in better seasonal and long-term performances of the tour? I think so.

But I don’t think that was the reason for the upsets of Alcaraz and Djokovic. Neither have played that many matches this season (although their US hardcourt swings coming in were thin, so I will concede that).

For Alcaraz, it still seems like ‘Plan B’ isn’t always taken in stride when his forehand and aggressive instincts are resulting in errors. There’s no “lockdown mode” — that stubborn, ugly, blue-collar style of tennis where you simply refuse to miss — that was so effective from Djokovic, Nadal, and Murray when at the peak of their powers. His forehand in particular is intwined with a shooters mentality, but it’s entirely capable of playing the role of a heavy, varied, and consistent shot more in the mold of a Nadal forehand.¹ Still just 21, all is forgiven, of course, and this is the first ‘bad’ slam match he has lost in his young career so far (credit to Botic, who did play well and closed it out cooly), but the overall trend of Alcaraz burning his own chances (remember the match against Zverev at the AO this year?) in a committed effort to play most points at Mach 3 is something that will need to be addressed if he is to fulfil his Big-3-level ambitions.

For Djokovic, it’s hard not to think he is on the decline having failed in a fourth slam now. Yes he made the Wimbledon final again, but the final itself would be marked as a fail by his own standards — knee injury or no knee injury. The Olympics was a phenomenal and brief return to form, but it’s unclear how much that took out of him — physically and emotionally — and whether his problems moving forward will be more physical or motivational. At 37 and change, the body isn’t what it used to be (despite his best efforts), and having scaled the last uncharted peak with his Olympic gold, the question of what motivates Novak moving forward may simply be that he loves playing the game:

“I don’t play it only to win the tournament. I play it because I really love competition. I love the drive of every day, every week, training my body, perfecting my game, improving my myself still at this age.”

— Novak Djokovic after winning Olympic gold in Paris

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Middleweight Bout

Alex de Minaur faced off against Dan Evans in the third-round on Saturday night, and the pair didn’t disappoint for the first two sets, until Evans (who came through a 5 hour & 36 minute marathon against Karen Khachanov in the opening round) ran out of gas, eventually losing 4-6 7-6 0-6 0-6.

The official YouTube highlights are rubbish (naturally), but if you can catch a replay I highly recommend doing so. The 2-3 and 3-3 games in the first set in particular were brilliant displays of what I call middleweight tennis — where foot speed, variation, and net rushing are the primary means of attack — and had the fans on Louis Armstrong standing in admiration for the anachronistic rallies on display.

None of these balls were hit particularly hard, but they all had a clear intent, and the rally was full of variation in terms of footwork, positioning, shot spins, and shot direction. Evans actually has the ability to curl his backhand slice down the line like an inverted Rafa banana shot; just carves around the outside of the ball with unbelievable control. Great stuff.

These two played one of the greatest matches (as voted by me) you probably never heard of or cared about four years ago at the ATP cup. Check out the highlights here:

Side note: is it just me or does Dan Evans get a tonne of highlight features from Tennis TV for a guy who has maxed out at 21 in the rankings? There is also Evans v Alcaraz from Shanghai, Evans v Sinner in Beijing, Evans v Tiafoe in Washington, Evans v Rublev in Cincinnati, Evans v Paul in Montreal, Evans v Alcaraz at the 23’ US Open, and even a Dan Evans Best Shots and Skills Tribute Video.

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Predictions From Here

Rapid fire before I head out to coaching.

I think today’s winners will be Sinner, Medvedev, Draper (feeling a five-setter v Machac today), and Thompson to upset de Minaur.

Quarterfinals:

Sinner defeats Medvedev in four sets. Medvedev off the ground has been his usual rock, but the serving numbers are poor, hovering around 50% first-serves in and sprinkling in way too many double faults.

Draper defeats Thompson in five sets. Could easily see this match being Machac v de Minaur. All four guys have a big chance to make their first semi. Less bullish on de Minaur purely because it’s unclear if the hips is a problem still or not.

Zverev defeats Fritz in five sets. Zverev has been so solid all year, but Fritz has been so sharp and has the crowd behind him tomorrow. This is another great chance for Zverev to get that elusive first slam; can he handle the pressure?

Dimitrov defeats Tiafoe in four sets. This should be a fun one. Both excel at shot-making and using the forecourt. Foe knows how to get that New York crowd going.

Semifinals:

Sinner defeats Draper in three sets.

Zverev defeats Dimitrov in four sets.

Final:

Sinner defeats Zverev in five sets.

I’ll be back with a finals recap next Monday. HC

1. “I’d rather go 0 for 30 than 0 for 9 because that means you stopped shooting. That means you lost confidence” — Dion Waiters