Hi Hugh, Another great post. Very interesting analysis of court speed. It seems that court speed was made more homogenous which favors Djokovic over Fed and Nadal. Fed suffered the most as higher court speed would have benefited his win record. I do have one nagging problem with deep returning. I still think that even a 30% mix of S&V nullifies this advantage. It is just too much of a liability to return from so far back. My hypothetical matchup is Sampras vs. Nadal even in today's slower conditions both at or close to their peak. I still think that Sampras wins most of the time on grass and hard courts. Nadal would HAVE to stand closer. Same with Ruud today. Just no way that standing way back will work long term. Alcaraz and Djokovic have already brought it out against Medvedev. It's a matter of time before any server immediately starts charging the net when someone stands back too far to return. They can also hit a sharp low slice serve that spins away or into the server but stays very low. Or even drop shot serve and then charge the net. In any case, I love the idea of tradeoffs!
Hugh, I love your discussions on forehand wrist position set up. I know you are a big fan of the wrist extended set up used by Fed , Nadal, Novak, Rune, etc, rather than the wrist flexion/curl/dangling set up used by Tiafoe, Khachanov, Musetti, Kyrgios, etc. It seems to me Fognini uses a completely neutral wrist set up, neither extended or flexion? What do you think? This could be an interesting compromise?
There are two separate issues that I think need to be addressed: 1) the flexed (curl) wrist position; and 2) the lower racquet head set-up more to the outside. The first is largely a function of grip, as the grip gets more extreme we tend to see more flexed wrist set-ups because on contact they won't be extended, they will be neutral. The second has come about due to the supposed increased speed of the game. Setting up lower to the side like Tiafoe, Sinner, post 2015 Fed etc. is a shorter swing. The racquet flips/lags violently on the outside during the stretch-shortening of the player has they unload. It gets tremendous racquet head speed in a short space. Why that is deemed better than a fuller takeback that we see in Djokovic, Ruud, Medvedev, Nalbandian, Davydenko, Wawrinka, etc. I suppose is answered by "it saves time/you can take the ball earlier". Fine. But despite the "increased speed of the game" narrattive (im not sold on it), we don't see those forehands dominating. They are an inherent flaw to me because they are harder to time when you set up on the side; a difference so small that it takes thousands of shots/situations to see it manifest. It might also be that baseline counterpunchers use longer swings and the counterpuncher is still the best version of baseliner in today's game due to the movement of top players getting better (Medvedev, Murray, Djok etc. all more defensively inclined, although Djoker is changing that this week in Adelaide). I don't have answers, just theories. Fognini has short arms (levers) and compact strokes, he's an amazing player, but we would need a Fognini with a longer/more extended set up to play a whole career against a more nextgen forehand Fognini to make a meaningful conclusion. Otherwise, we have to look across the whole set of players, and see what keeps winning (essentially what the first forehand articles tried to do; identify heavy racquets, high set ups, extended/neutral wrist, as the goldilocks conditions for great forehands. A compromise is still a tradeoff, but yeah it is an interesting one.
Thanks for the detailed response Hugh. Yes very interesting times in tennis. The big 3 have dominated the Majors and Master 1000's for so long, there has not been much left for anyone else.
Korda looked great in his close loss to Novak in Adelaide. AO should be very interesting. Novak clearly the favorite, but guys like Sinner, Fritz, Rune, Korda, certainly look ready for a big break through. We will not know truly to me where Nadal is until the clay court season.
Love the piece, great analysis to start of the year! I’m also interested to see how Rune does this year, especially since his physical conditioning seems improved.
Yep. He lost today in Adelaide. Played far too impatient and dumb. But jeez he is crushing it clean still. Needs discipline with his shot selection and he can take number 1 in the next few years
Imagine listening to what Tiafoe's coach has to say about the forehand. Or anything. Does he have any opinions about rocket science or metaphysics? Racetrack tips? Lighter racquets, as you say, are definitely the difference.
Hi Hugh, Another great post. Very interesting analysis of court speed. It seems that court speed was made more homogenous which favors Djokovic over Fed and Nadal. Fed suffered the most as higher court speed would have benefited his win record. I do have one nagging problem with deep returning. I still think that even a 30% mix of S&V nullifies this advantage. It is just too much of a liability to return from so far back. My hypothetical matchup is Sampras vs. Nadal even in today's slower conditions both at or close to their peak. I still think that Sampras wins most of the time on grass and hard courts. Nadal would HAVE to stand closer. Same with Ruud today. Just no way that standing way back will work long term. Alcaraz and Djokovic have already brought it out against Medvedev. It's a matter of time before any server immediately starts charging the net when someone stands back too far to return. They can also hit a sharp low slice serve that spins away or into the server but stays very low. Or even drop shot serve and then charge the net. In any case, I love the idea of tradeoffs!
Hugh, I love your discussions on forehand wrist position set up. I know you are a big fan of the wrist extended set up used by Fed , Nadal, Novak, Rune, etc, rather than the wrist flexion/curl/dangling set up used by Tiafoe, Khachanov, Musetti, Kyrgios, etc. It seems to me Fognini uses a completely neutral wrist set up, neither extended or flexion? What do you think? This could be an interesting compromise?
There are two separate issues that I think need to be addressed: 1) the flexed (curl) wrist position; and 2) the lower racquet head set-up more to the outside. The first is largely a function of grip, as the grip gets more extreme we tend to see more flexed wrist set-ups because on contact they won't be extended, they will be neutral. The second has come about due to the supposed increased speed of the game. Setting up lower to the side like Tiafoe, Sinner, post 2015 Fed etc. is a shorter swing. The racquet flips/lags violently on the outside during the stretch-shortening of the player has they unload. It gets tremendous racquet head speed in a short space. Why that is deemed better than a fuller takeback that we see in Djokovic, Ruud, Medvedev, Nalbandian, Davydenko, Wawrinka, etc. I suppose is answered by "it saves time/you can take the ball earlier". Fine. But despite the "increased speed of the game" narrattive (im not sold on it), we don't see those forehands dominating. They are an inherent flaw to me because they are harder to time when you set up on the side; a difference so small that it takes thousands of shots/situations to see it manifest. It might also be that baseline counterpunchers use longer swings and the counterpuncher is still the best version of baseliner in today's game due to the movement of top players getting better (Medvedev, Murray, Djok etc. all more defensively inclined, although Djoker is changing that this week in Adelaide). I don't have answers, just theories. Fognini has short arms (levers) and compact strokes, he's an amazing player, but we would need a Fognini with a longer/more extended set up to play a whole career against a more nextgen forehand Fognini to make a meaningful conclusion. Otherwise, we have to look across the whole set of players, and see what keeps winning (essentially what the first forehand articles tried to do; identify heavy racquets, high set ups, extended/neutral wrist, as the goldilocks conditions for great forehands. A compromise is still a tradeoff, but yeah it is an interesting one.
Thanks for the detailed response Hugh. Yes very interesting times in tennis. The big 3 have dominated the Majors and Master 1000's for so long, there has not been much left for anyone else.
Korda looked great in his close loss to Novak in Adelaide. AO should be very interesting. Novak clearly the favorite, but guys like Sinner, Fritz, Rune, Korda, certainly look ready for a big break through. We will not know truly to me where Nadal is until the clay court season.
Sweet article. You're bringing it all together.
(the deep middle returns link is dead) (edit: it works now)
thanks lego. Strange, I click the link and it still works for me (wall street journal)
Love the piece, great analysis to start of the year! I’m also interested to see how Rune does this year, especially since his physical conditioning seems improved.
Yep. He lost today in Adelaide. Played far too impatient and dumb. But jeez he is crushing it clean still. Needs discipline with his shot selection and he can take number 1 in the next few years
Imagine listening to what Tiafoe's coach has to say about the forehand. Or anything. Does he have any opinions about rocket science or metaphysics? Racetrack tips? Lighter racquets, as you say, are definitely the difference.