Sinner vs Tiafoe: Cincinnati Final Recap

return stats — front foot forehands — gravity mechanics — slices and blocks

Jannik Sinner defeated Frances Tiafoe 7/6 6/2 to claim his second Masters 1000 title of the year (Miami) and fifth title of the season. The Italian extends his H2H lead to 4-1 over the American, and heads to New York as the top seed for the final slam of the year.

First Set

When it comes to forehands, no one in tennis gets on the front foot more often than Jannik Sinner. It’s an impressive skill given the speed of the modern game, and it enables the Italian to crush neutral balls with authority, seen here in his opening service game targeting the wide Tiafoe forehand:

Most players would play this second forehand in a more open stance, but so often Sinner takes that final extra step across with his front (left) leg into something more neutral just prior to unloading on this crosscourt forehand. It means he takes the ball a little earlier, changes direction with more control, and generates easy power. Next time you watch him play note how often he finds that extra step.

Tiafoe had done well to come back from 2-5 down in the third set to defeat Holger Rune in Sunday’s semifinal (and save a couple of match points). Much of his success this week came off the back of strong serving performances. In fact, through to the final, the American enjoyed a 51% unreturned serve rate behind his first serve:

However, Sinner showed his class today, keeping Tiafoe’s unreturned rate closer to 25%. From there, the rally tactic from Tiafoe was straight out of the Medvedev 2023 playbook: keep it deep middle, mainly through the backhand channel. Additionally, Tiafoe mixed it up with slice backhands and forays to the net, but in every baseline rally you could see the gulf in movement and shot quality under pressure — especially on their wider forehands. Tiafoe looked stiffer with his body and more rushed when the heat was really applied.

This stat was only plucked from 2-3 in the first set, so it’s a pretty small sample of games, but you could see the overall intention from Tiafoe was to keep it low through the backhand channel and don’t let it become a slugfest from the back.

Sinner mixed up his second-serve return positions, sometimes taking it inside the baseline on the rise, and sometimes dropping back to find a high-percentage full cut that could pressure Tiafoe, who always looks to hold the baseline following his serve:

Sinner has the strokes and movement to play a heavy brand of tennis from several metres back. Wawrinka, Nadal, and Thiem fit into that mold. Tiafoe’s game is made for the baseline, he isn’t a huge hitter of the ball (although he can torch a forehand when set) and his backhand is very flat and compact. It makes him less flexible when it comes to tactical options.

Tiafoe enjoyed no such return success of his own. Statistically speaking, the American owns one of the worst returns in the top-50 (the Tennis TV commentary remarked that “Tiafoe, this year, has been the most aced player on tour”) and early on today it was the Foe forehand that was found wanting:

Again, this was just from 3-3 in the first set. I’ll have to dig and see what the stats looked like for the match. This is partly due to the fact that Tiafoe often tries to use something closer to Eastern when returning off his forehand — a bit like Kyrgios — rather than his usual Western-ish forehand grip.

But at 4-4 Tiafoe did generate a break point off the back of some chipped return forehands (and some errant Sinner hitting), which I would have encouraged more if I was David Witt, but again Sinner found relief with a front foot forehand rushing Tiafoe’s own tentative forehand strike.¹

You can see how Sinner keeps his his left arm on the throat of the racquet for longer in the unit turn to help coil his upper body more. Djokovic, Nadal, and Alcaraz share this trait. The other thing to note is the different wrist positions, despite similar grips (Tiafoe is probably slightly more extreme). Sinner extends his wrist, whereas Tiafoe takes the racquet back with a floppy ultra-loose wrist (flexion). Not an apples-to-apples comparison as Tiafoe was rushed/jammed on this shot and so didn’t get a full cut at it (this was the forehand that he missed when he had a break point chance at 4-4).

At 5-6 the pair had a rally where they exchanged 33-shots in 43 seconds, the frenetic pace finally catching Tiafoe late on a forehand that he slapped into the net. However, Sinner missed the most routine of second-serve returns on his break point, sailing his backhand long to let the American force a tie-breaker.

In the buster it was a set of back-to-back running forehands from Sinner that opened up an early mini-break.

Sinner using that deep return position again to pressure Tiafoe right off the second serve. Tiafoe did well with his forehand, but that is a bonafide zinger from Sinner there. Note the step-over footwork helping to steady the upper body and create linear pace.

I contend this is where wrist extension in the forehand backswing really shines. Below you can see how Sinner’s racquet head drops from around shoulder height to waist height at the same time he drives the elbow forward; he’s tapping into gravity for speed and keeping the wrist mechanics quiet. I don’t believe flexed forehand setups get that benefit (look in the above forehand comparison video and note how Tiafoe’s racquet frame is always below his hand).

That running forehand, where the left leg steps across the body as he hits, helps to create a reactive brake; it slows his upper body and allows the energy to transfer into the arm and racquet.

All things being equal, if I assume an outside setup with flexion and extension, note how extension lifts the racquet head, creating leverage that, at end range, is beneficial to the player.

But long-time readers have heard all this. Probably nothing…Anyway.

Tiafoe did flirt with victory in the tie-breaker, going up 4-3 before they again exchanged in some lengthy rallies at 4-4 and 4-5, which Sinner won both times (and with Tiafoe missing a forehand on the second, again), showcasing a clear edge in the longer rally statistics (it was ~8-2 at this point in favour of the Italian when the rallies extended).

A well struck forehand return from Sinner at 6-4 rushed Tiafoe into another plus-one error to seal the first set.

Second Set

Sinner broke immediately at the start of the second. Again, the forehand footwork on neutral balls is just impressive. Huge power and spin. The only other guy who often takes that step is Carlos Alcaraz.

Sinner’s forehand is such a body shot. The legs and hips do so much work, and at 6’4’’ and stretched out every way, the levers he operates with grant him a phenomenal amount of racquet head speed.

And the transition forehand was firing once he became a front-runner. It’s hard to believe but Sinner seemed like he actually increased his aggression and ball speed on the forehand in the second set:

Neutral stance again to aid the inside-in forehand. Holger Rune take note

The Italian also started breezing through his own service games, as Tiafoe looked to take more risk on return, hurting his make percentage even more.

Sinner dropped one point on serve in the second set. From Flashscore

The final nail in the coffin was another Sinner running forehand on a break point at 3-1. A carbon-copy from the first-set tiebreaker:

That’s a great angle from Tiafoe. Ridiculous Jannik.

A look at the rap sheet:

1. Tiafoe’s unreturned % tanked today compared to his run to the final, courtesy of Sinner’s reach and skill at covering the service box; (2) Sinner only lost 11 points on serve. Partly a reflection of his improved serve, partly due to Tiafoe’s poor return rating; (3) Tiafoe needed to come forward more often, but when he did his execution just wasn’t there today. 7/13 with 3 or 4 of those being very make-able with his skillset and touch; (4) Pretty leaky backhand from Sinner today, but look at the forehand winners. I’d wager that when Tennis Abstract’s match-charting of this match comes out, Tiafoe will have hit a huge number of forced error forehands; (5) Overall Sinner was 5 miles faster off both wings, and I’d bet he would have more spin too. He’s probably the best in the world at creating racquet head speed.

The tour heads to New York as we gear up for the final slam of the year starting next week. If time permits I’ll try and get a draw preview done.

See you in the comments. HC.

1. This isn’t to say that I think Tiafoe should have been more patient in the rally, but I do think he needed to make more returns in a bid to apply some pressure.