Sinner vs Dimitrov: Miami Final Recap
slices — backhand mechanics — defense
Before the match analysis…
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Sinner Slides To Miami Glory
Jannik Sinner defeated Grigor Dimitrov 6/3 6/1 in the final of the Miami Masters on Sunday to clinch his second Masters 1000 title. It was another dominating performance from Sinner, his easy power and blanketing court-coverage proving an overwhelming combo for the veteran Bulgarian.
The win catapults Sinner over Carlos Alcaraz in the live rankings as the new world number 2, but it’s hard to argue that he isn’t the clear best player in the world right now: 22-1 on the year, 42-3 since the US Open. Carlos and Novak have work to do.
While Sinner and Dimitrov have comparable weapons with their serves and forehands, this was always going to be a tough match for Dimitrov, as his slice backhand wouldn’t protect him as well as it did against the likes of Zverev or Alcaraz, and his topspin one-handed backhand isn’t comparable.
One of the strengths of Sinner’s two-handed backhand is his ability to generate an impressive combination of speed and spin. Looking at Indian Wells data from 2023, only FAA and Alexei Popyrin added more RPM’s, yet neither can match his speed.
This is due to his long ‘in-to-out’ swing path with a closed string bed. These mechanics are perfect for strong use of the top-hand. It’s as close to a left-handed forehand as a right-handed two-hander can get.
This makes his backhand well suited to combatting low slices.
But the two-handed backhand is not a forehand. Sinner’s backhand is still a weaker ball compared to most tour forehands.
And my overall impression of this match is that Dimitrov did not slice enough. He hit 21% slice on the backhand in the first set, and something comparable in the second.
“But you said his slice would struggle more against Sinner compared to Alcaraz and Zverev?”
Yes, I did. But I believe it was still the better of the two options. Now, did Grigor absolutely melt some gorgeous topspin one-handers?
Yes he did.
But he also missed it way too often, and he was anxious to get around more forehands than he deserved in a bid to avoid hitting his topspin backhand. This led to forehand errors. Two of them were crucial when he had early chances:
Falling away with a reverse finish. Was always low percentage. Would have loved him to slice a backhand here and stay patient.
Let me put my coaching hat on and walk this one out.
If we step back and think about what Sinner does better than anyone on the planet right now, it is this: going toe-to-toe in baseline battles. No one can hang with this kid in that domain right now. Not Alcaraz, not Medvedev, and not the 2024 version of Djokovic that we’ve seen so far. Attack him with pace and he can slide on both wings and pass you from four metres behind the baseline. Land it short and he will crush it.
But what did Alcaraz do in Indian Wells after getting minced 6-1 in the first set?
He dropped back, he used the favourable bounce and added height, he mixed in some slice. He opted out of the baseline-hugging power game and changed the cadence and structure of the rallies. From the Sinner/Alcaraz Indian Wells piece:
That word, complete, does not mean he [Alcaraz] is the best at everything, but he is very comfortable playing all styles, from all positions. Is he better than 99% of the tour at blasting balls on the baseline? Yes. but Sinner is that 1%, and here he adjusted to the role of deep and heavy clay courter.
This is partly what is so impressive with Alcaraz. At just 20 he has the ability to completely change styles mid-match.
Dimitrov is 12 years older and wiser, but was so rigid (maybe that’s too harsh; ‘committed’ may be fairer) in his game plan throughout this whole encounter. He kept trying to beat Sinner at baseline bludgeoning.
I can understand why he started the match that way. Dimitrov’s renaissance this past year has been built on aggressive serve-plus-one forehands and a suffocating court position. That worked against the ninety-nine. Today he played the one:
This attacking tennis is meant to work against everyone. Outrageous. Sinner hit three or four sliding passing shots just like this in the match. His balance and power from these positions are Djokovic-esque. He is comfortable absorbing power from everywhere. How do you beat him? Looking forward to seeing attempts on the clay.
A guy like Dimitrov — one of the most gifted, athletic players that the game has seen in recent decades — has the ability to play that change ball. He has the ability to play defense. He excels in the cat-and-mouse forecourt game. He has a great slice.
He has a great slice!
In Dimitrov’s loss to Djokovic last year in the Paris Masters Final, I felt he didn’t hit the slice enough, and the moments he did is when Djokovic looked most uncomfortable. I outlined a number of perks Dimitrov got out of the slice in that match, but here’s two that I felt also worked against Sinner:
It forces your opponent to allocate racquet speed to lifting the ball, rather than driving it and attacking you. This means a player hitting a ball off a low slice will generally hit it slower. This then buys someone like Dimitrov more time to run around his forehand.
If you can slice it short, it often gets your opponent slicing, which then opens up the chance for Dimitrov to look for more forehands and attack with the opponent closer to the baseline.
By my count, Sinner only hit two backhand slices in this whole match. One was off a short inside-out Dimitrov forehand that was kind of a mishit. The other was this:
Dimitrov gets a forehand on the next ball.
That whole point at 6/3 30-15 was more of what I wanted to see from Dimitrov in the second set. He sliced the backhand three times, and each time, Sinner dedicated all his aggressive racquet work to ensuring he had the necessary spin to lift the ball. Dimitrov wasn’t rushed.
This same play worked way back in the opening game too:
The extended highlights from Beijing last year — where Dimitrov lost to Sinner in three sets — look to feature much more slice. I have no data but I’ll scratch around.
What’s more, another player took Sinner to three sets in Beijing: Dan Evans. If you have Tennis TV, go watch those highlights.
This isn’t some glaring weakness. It’s a small pocket of relief that players like Dimitrov could use given their comfort with the slice backhand. The fact of the matter is, Sinner is playing incredible tennis right now. Beyond his groundstrokes and movement, the serve is also firing, and today he did well to jam Dimitrov into the body on second serves (again, this got me wondering: why not chip short to the backhand and invite Sinner in off his second serve?) He did it inadvertently here off a first serve:
This was off a first serve, but Dimitrov has always been good on the two-shot pass (he missed this one, though).
Dimitrov didn’t play bad. To be quite honest he was crushing it, but that’s almost the problem: Sinner loves that.
In an era that is increasingly being defined by hard-hitters, Sinner looks unperturbed. Medvedev’s latest attempt at baseline aggression was handled with ease (never mind the Russian’s misses). One wonders what a peak Andy Murray would have done, with his mixture of court craft and off-pace finesse. Ditto Roger Federer. I also feel Holger Rune has great potential in this matchup, specifically because he changes the rhythm and speeds often and is comfortable staying patient from the back.
For now, the Jannik Sinner puzzle remains firmly in place as we pack our bags for the European clay swing.
See you in the comments. HC.
Very interesting recap and I also got the feeling that Dimitrov was less patient than in other matches. He probably needed to slice more just like Rafa did against Djokovic a few years back. Only Wawrinka would have his way against Sinner. No other backhand could push him back. And even Fed did not have that type of backhand. There was something else I noticed...
Dimitrov threw in the towel. He started making bonehead plays and just gave up. I have NEVER seen Rafa, Fed or Djokovic give up. Even Fed when he was being run around by Djokovic in an AO final a few years back, would keep playing. Maybe Fed on clay against Rafa was the closest to a meltdown. But still, Dimitrov stopped fighting. He did not try to change things up. Do something else. Slice everything. Just find a way to stay out there a bit longer. These are all qualities that a champion uses to their advantage. Even when the other player is firing just hang around. 6-3, 6-4 is better than 6-3, 6-1. It will stay in a player's mind the next time.
Even if he lost in straight sets, I think he should have tried to hang around and disrupt Sinner in some way. I suppose that there are only a few who can do this and Alcaraz is one of those who can change his game. I was a bit disappointed at Dimitrov laying down in the second set without trying to get Sinner to keep hitting at the same level.
I know that it is easy to judge from a distance but still. Even if you are losing don't throw away points. I am hearing Yogi Berra here.
A very low-importance correction: you note that FAA and Popyrin were the only two-handers whose average RPM exceeded Sinner's, but there's also Ruud -- whose forehand RPMs sent him so far off to the right that he's hard to spot!