Sinner v de Minaur: Toronto Final Analysis

heavyweight technique—serves—backhands

Jannik Sinner defeated Alex de Minaur 6/4 6/1 to claim his maiden Masters 1000 title in Toronto on Sunday. The Italian now sits at a career-high sixth in the live ATP rankings and fourth in the race to Turin.

"My grandfather always told me that tennis was boxing at 90 ft"

— Jimmy Connors

The other subtle difference is that there are no weight divisions in tennis: Heavyweights battle lightweights. Sunday’s Toronto final was certainly a case of that.

While size certainly helps when it comes to generating power and holding your own against stronger foes, technique is also key to maximising your athleticism.

In five matches against Sinner, de Minaur and all his speed is now 0-5. He’s also 1-12 in sets won, squeezing out the lone tie-breaker on Sofia’s indoor hard court in 2020.

Let’s isolate two technical differences that further create a gulf in power and spin between the Aussie and Italian.

The Backhand

One of the trends in the last 15 years has been toward shorter swings on the outside. Many players exhibit this on the backhand to varying degrees (Khachanov, Rublev, Alcaraz, Kyrgios, Fritz, Hurkacz, Tiafoe, Norrie, and Korda to name a few) but de Minaur’s is quite pronounced in how stocky it is.

Such a short swing means it’s very difficult for De Minaur to create any sort of racquet head speed. He can’t generate spin or easily get the outside of the ball. It’s tricky in its own way; on quicker and skidding surfaces it stays low and gets good purchase through the court, but it is limited in shot possibilities and surface adaptability.

While this swing may save time and work well for blocking returns and absorbing pace, limiting the swing to such a short motion reduces the backhand to the role of a shield.¹ This can work if you’ve got a sword to compliment it with—like Kyrgios or Hurkacz with their serves—but in Demon’s case, he is very limited in the power department in the rest of his game.

In contrast, while Sinner also starts on the outside and utilizes a “dynamic flip”, he has a much fuller turn in the shoulders and arms. As a result, he generates much more racquet head speed.

You can also see how much more closed Sinner’s backhand strings/racquet face is. This helps him more easily hit with a lot of topspin.

In practice, while the speed of de Minaur’s backhand (and forehand) was reportedly faster than that of Sinner’s on Sunday according to Infosys, there was a huge gulf in the RPMs each man was generating from that side (and in all likelihood the TennisTV speeds seem to match the eye test more. Sinner was hitting harder and with more spin):

From TennisTV’s post-match stats page. Here Sinner enjoys an enormous advantage in speed over de Minaur.

Infosys numbers paint a different average speed picture compared to TennisTV. The RPM’s are very different, however.

All that additional racquet head speed Sinner generates isn’t for nothing: he’s got the heaviest two-hander on tour, and if you give him time and space he will hurt you with it, as he did to secure the initial break:

And the first set.

And while de Minaur did well to keep the first set close, this was always Sinner’s match to lose. When you cede technical inches in your strokes that are crucial to generating controllable power, your fate is largely dictated by the opponent.

As I mentioned earlier, such a shield backhand can serve its purpose in the right game. For example, that kind of bunt backhand compliments Kyrgios’ unbelievable serve and heavy forehand; it makes him dynamic because the varying spins and speeds between his serves, forehands, and backhands make for an uncomfortable and constant adjustment for his opponents. It suits his chaotic style of play.

But on top of lacking Sinner’s height and backhand mechanics, de Minaur’s serve is also technically lightweight.

The serve

The arm position that helps develop a heavyweight serve is the internal rotation of the shoulder prior to acceleration with the leg drive (there are other factors of course). Unsurprisingly, some of the most powerful servers exhibit a very good internal rotation of the shoulder as they start to drive. YouTube any powerful server—Roddick, Karlovic, Kyrgios—and you will most likely see great internal shoulder rotation (or great speed from internal to external: there is no “pause” in the trophy position). Here’s Ivo Karlovic alongside the MLB’s Stephen Strasburg (who can throw heat).

Note the palm-down orientation of the arm before they accelerate. Photo credits: Karlovic by Steven Pisano, Strasburg by slgckgc

When we compare Sinner and de Minaur’s trophy positions on the serve (or the moment just prior to their leg drive) we can see that Sinner has given himself much more space to accelerate the racquet head. He’s more palm-down compared to de Minaur, who has already opened his right hand to the sky:

Red arrow denotes the racquet tip orientation. You can see with the yellow line how much more space Sinner can move or “lag” the racquet through.

Additionally, you can see that Sinner also has a better coil in his whole body with a deeper leg drive. He has turned his hips and shoulders more. Overall he’s generating a much more powerful kinetic chain and is just a taller dude. Sinner’s serve is still a work in progress that he has tinkered with multiple times over the past 18 months, but he’s got a really solid foundation to build on:

Sinner’s max serve speed: 216 km/h. de Minaur’s max serve speed: 204.4 km/h

And so, while this match was all squared at 4-4 in the first set, the reality was that de Minaur hadn’t hit a single winner up to that point: Sinner was just missing. It was almost inevitable that the Italian was going to find his timing against a regular flat ball given he gets so many looks on de Minaur’s serve (who only hit 1 ace for the match).

Sinner certainly has his own weaknesses: the forehand is shaky at times, he doesn’t change direction well from either wing, and he lacks variety, but he is a bonafide heavyweight hitter across serves, forehands, and backhands thanks to a set of techniques that build a lot of racquet speed. Combined with his excellent baseline movement it’s no wonder many people are saying it’s just a matter of time before a slam is won.

To his credit, Sinner has continually looked to add the drop shot to his arsenal in 2023 (with mixed success). Given how deep he can force opponents, and off the back of seeing Alcaraz use it so well, it’s a no-brainer in terms of his long-term game development.

And alongside the serve and maturity, the Italian youngster—who is just shy of his 22nd birthday—has slowly but surely been on the up year-on-year:

"It means a lot. It is a great result," Sinner said. "One I can share with all the people who are close to me every day. It is a nice moment to share with them and we are doing the right things. This result makes us feel good, stronger, and hungry to work even harder in the future."

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The tour wastes no time.

The first round of the Cincinnati Masters 1000 kicked off today, with Shelton, Mannarino, Nishioka, and Tiafoe all notching opening-round wins. Novak Djokovic returns to action this week opposite top-seeded Carlos Alcaraz. Will they meet here for the first time since their Wimbledon epic?

1. Tradeoffs