Alcaraz vs Sinner; Miami Draw Preview

playing jazz — quarter previews — defensive slice

Given the excitement in the growing Alcaraz/Sinner rivalry, I thought I’d give a few thoughts on that match before looking ahead at the Miami draw.

I felt Alcaraz had the right mindset for this rivalry even in his loss to Sinner in Beijing last year. Much of what I touch on here will be echoed from that piece: taking on the role of counterpuncher and mixing up pace and spin.

Even though Sinner won this first set 6-1, from 3-1 down, Alcaraz had made adjustments to his return position and first ball strategy, and was earning looks to break back:

There’s that defensive slice again, forcing Sinner to back up and play below the net. By backing up to return, Alcaraz also buys himself more time to recover before Sinner can hit the ball. Here, he tries to approach off a ball from behind the baseline, which is fine, but it gave Alcaraz just enough room to squeeze this play out.

That Sinner holds and then broke again for 5-1 was just excellent tennis from the Italian.

There’s always a certain tempo, place and height that players are comfortable playing in, but Alcaraz is the tennis equivalent of a jazz player, able to seamlessly change his spins, depths, and positions on the court in a bid to change the rhythm of a match. The more he leans into that feature, the more he can take his opponent’s out of theirs.

In my Indian Wells final piece I wrote:

Alcaraz is the ultimate player when given time; he can fabricate many tailored solutions when in possession of that commodity.

Against Sinner, Alcaraz created time in two ways: (1) he stood deeper on return; and (2) he used more height on his forehand, and added more slice on the backhand. He also stole time, by closing the net and taking the ball earlier after a good ball.

The first point of the 1-2 game in the second set — the game where Alcaraz finally broke and turned the tide of the match — is the perfect example of this jazz. First, note the return position. Alcaraz is way back, but he has the firepower to monster this return very deep and heavy:

In the space of two forehands, Alcaraz went from an unfavourable court position relative to Sinner on the return…

To a neutral position on his second forehand…

This second ball is great, because he gets Sinner playing a reverse finish forehand off his backfoot. That is not Sinner tennis. Advantage Alcaraz.

From here, Alcaraz could blast the forehand, but he plays an acute crosscourt angle that pulls Sinner way outside the singles lines, and he follows it in, deftly dropping the high volley short.

When Alcaraz won the Miami Masters back in 2022, there was a graphic that showcased just how much of a shapeshifting baseliner he is; as comfortable in Nadal’s deep waters as he was in the baseline shallows:

And this is the beauty of his game and why players and commentators marvel at how complete he is. That word, complete, does not mean he is the best at everything, but he is very comfortable playing all styles, from all positions. Is he better than 99% of the tour at blasting balls on the baseline? Yes. but Sinner is that 1%, and here he adjusted to the role of deep and heavy clay courter.

While it wasn’t the highest quality match they had played, there were some phenomenal points, and I hope Sinner has recovered from the calf and wrist tweaks he experienced. You can catch the highlights here:

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Miami Masters Preview

Main draw action of the Miami Masters gets underway today. A look at the draw:

First Quarter

Quarterfinal Prediction: Alcaraz def. Hurkacz

Early Upsets: Safiullin def. Musetti; Monfils def. Thompson

Quality Qualifier: Brandon Nakashima has built a 21-7 record on the year and pushed Lehecka last week in the desert.

Dark Horses: Emil Ruusuvuori and Gael Monfils

Round 1 Match: Lajovic vs. Monfils

Almost went with… Ben Shelton. A former Gator, Shelton is no stranger to the humid conditions of Florida and will get more juice out of his game on the quicker Miami surface. Expecting him to make his way to a fourth round clash with Alcaraz.

Toughest Draw? Dimitrov. Tabilo, Nakashima, Ruusuvuori, and Mannarino are all top-35 in the Race to Turin, and besides Tabilo, all would count hard court as their favourite surface (maybe Adrian likes the herbe more, but debatable).

Summary: Alcaraz will have to adapt to the conditions and courts, but he’s no stranger to that, as he reached the semifinals here last year after an Indian Wells triumph (lost to Sinner). Shelton is the obvious threat in his section. The bottom half of this quarter is stacked with fast and low bouncing specialists: Dimitrov, Ruusuvuori, Korda, Mannarino, Hurkacz, and RBA, will all feel comfortable here. Dimitrov has the form and Korda enjoys his hometown event, but Hurkacz’s track record in Miami (13-3) is hard to ignore.

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Second Quarter

Quarterfinal Prediction: de Minaur def. Khachanov

Early Upsets: Evans def. Eubanks; Auger-Aliassime def. Zverev

Quality Qualifier: Aleksander Kovacevic has been tough to beat in 2024. He has compiled a 13-6 record on the season, with five of those losses coming to top-50 players.

Dark Horses: Felix Auger-Aliassime and Fabian Marozsan

Round 1 Match: Sonego vs. Evans

Almost went with… Holger Rune. Building form. He’s going to break through sooner or later.

Toughest Draw? Rune. Marozsan has the firepower, Kovacevic has the form. From there you have Lehecka and de Minaur as projected matches.

Summary: I think the top half is quite open. Zverev probably has a tricky opener against FAA. Cerundolo is starting to come good after a bad start to the year and has done exceptionally well here the past few years; he’ll get plenty of support from the South American fans. Khachanov is just very solid and likes these conditions. From the bottom half de Minaur, Lehecka, and Rune are playing ball above the rest, but de Minaur’s draw is the path of least resistance, and the lower bounce should suit his game well.

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Third Quarter

Quarterfinal Prediction: Humbert def. Ruud

Early Upsets: Draper def. Jarry; Shang def. ADF

Quality Qualifier: Thiago Seyboth Wild won four matches in Indian Wells and has the benefit of court time here in Miami as well. A massive forehand. Truly mercurial.

Dark Horses: The winner of Giron/Koepfer and Jack Draper

Round 1 Match: Kecmanovic vs. Shang

Almost went with… Medvedev. Serve hasn’t been there, but this court will suit his groundies better than Indian Wells, so I won’t be surprised if he goes deep again.

Toughest Draw? Fritz. Opens against Borges (who just won Phoenix) or TSW (massive forehand). Then a likely third round with Jarry or Draper, then a projected fourth round against Ruud, who is getting his hardcourt mojo back.

Summary: Very open quarter. A lot of unseeded talent and form floating all over. I like Ruud’s draw, I just don’t know if this court suits him, assuming it plays a little faster and lower bouncing like last year. Humbert is in career-best form and his opposite seed, Sebastian Baez, is not the strongest hardcourt player. The lower bounce should suit Humbert’s flat and aggressive game.

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Fourth Quarter

Quarterfinal Prediction: Sinner def. Rublev

Early Upsets: Klein def. Griekspoor; Berrettini def. Etcheverry

Quality Qualifier: Lukas Klein is 22-6 in the last six months across Challengers and ATP events. He defeated Mensik to earn his main draw here and opens against young American talent Alex Michelsen.

Dark Horses: Denis Shapovalov and Martin Damm

Round 1 Match: Berrettini vs. Murray

Almost went with… Tsitsipas. He’s slipping, but he’s still a class player. In recent weeks it’s taken a very good player to beat him: Lehecka, de Minaur, Ruud, Fritz.

Toughest Draw? Etcheverry. Murray or Berrettini first up, then a projected third round with Rublev.

Summary: If Sinner is fit he should win this quarter. This court suits his game perfectly and his section of the draw is favourable. Tiafoe is out of sorts and Paul is not in the same class yet. Up top Rublev might have his hands full against Machac (assuming he gets past the young American wildcard) and Berrettini has found form in Phoenix, but he is in the peak of his career and should navigate this section.

That’s all for today. I’ll see you in the comments. HC