As well as providing the best technical and tactical insights on tennis I've seen, you also have a great way with words Hugh, great work.
"But Djokovic has all but erased time’s receipts" etc.
After never being a Djokovic fan I now find myself rooting for him more and more. Hope he produces the goat level today and we see him use his clay experience to really test Sinner.
In the immortal words of Tim Henman: yeah, absolutely. Watching that point you’d think Zverev is 5’10” and the No.50 in the world, not 6’6” and top 3. Where’s the attack? Where’s the variation? Andy Roddick had some interesting comments on the match on his podcast, which really boiled down to: Djokovic used his head and changed his strategy.
Not sure more needs to be said about Zverev, but I felt that quarterfinal performance put a nail in the coffin of the argument that he lacks guts. Just an incredibly passive performance. Go watch the 41-shot rally and you'll see a guy who has spent his entire life expecting someone else to make a mistake. He takes ZERO initiative in that point.
Great analysis as always. However, I think I disagree on who those conditions favor regarding the Sinner - Djokovic matchup. While I can’t say for sure if Novak will enjoy longer physical rallies and can see a path where he eventually gets outlasted / out powered, I think the biggest difference between the 2023 Djokovic who pulled off a masterclass in serving and early ballstriking and this version of him is not in the physicality / movement department, but in reflexes/reactions and therefore vulnerability on return and to power/pace changes in general. If you look at their last two matchups, both on fast HC, Sinner’s decisive advantage was found not in the longer rallies category but in the serve-return dynamic.
So while those conditions will blunt Novak’s agressive strategies and force him to execute even better / more varied, I think the fact it also blunts the Italian’s power and especially serve is a good thing for him. When rallies develop, I don’t think he’ll be that much of an underdog. Problem is surviving those first few strikes and general changes of direction.
Good point. I agree Novak's reactions have slowed a touch. I think when things slow down you want to have stopping power/enough speed to still play plus-one tennis irrespective of conditions, and I think Sinner has that with his baseline game, but not sure Novak does. Tsitsipas and Medvedev have been vocal of the heavier balls favouring power guys like Alcaraz and Sinner. In rally, I would have given the edge to Novak, but I think that dynamic has also shifted; Sinner is fitter, better from the corners, able to hang in rallies, than he was prior to 2023. But Djokovic is a beast, and he'll empty the tank today. Looking forward to catching the replay, as I am sadly on court all day!
My pick is Novak in 5, with Djokovic finding an advantage on the FH side, making Sinner bleed out wide/consistency wise. I know you’ve opened your heart to Jannik’s FH, but I still think the Serb’s technique gives him a control edge
A small summary of the final that I was lucky enough to assist live in the stands.
First of all, a small comment about the public : overall very fair-play, no booing nor insults save for the 4th set where it was excessively pushing for Alcaraz with plenty of noise made between serves and clapping of 2nd serves by Sinner.
According to Infosys, the breakdown couldn't be more equal (193 vs 192 pts in favor of Sinner), they served 191 vs 194 times as well. Equal performance on return (Sinner won 2 out of 3 "extra points" from Alcaraz).
The difference lies in the clutch, because for the same number of breaks (7), Sinner had 12 games on the line versus 9 for Alcaraz. Likewise, Alcaraz won many more points on the tie-breaks.
It is pattern that tends to sediment in that H2H : very equal on a point-by-point basis (even a slight edge for Sinner) but Alcaraz is overperforming in the clutch. If you follow the in-depth data analysis from Jeff Sackmann, it cannot last forever and Sinner is bound to have a return of sorts in the future.
However, this match, it is surprising to see how strikingly they built on their strenght. The rally length analysis gives a big edge to Sinner for short rallyes (less than 4 shots, +13), meanwhile midle-menght (5-9) & long rallyes yielded -13 altogether. The extra ace by Sinner gives the point edge.
So basically, Sinner is better at "match tennis" meanwhile Alcaraz is better at "game tennis". The visual impression from the stands confirms this as Sinner is an exceptionnal spot server, reaching within 10 cm from the lines. I cannot also emphasize enough the quality of their 2nd serves, routinely over 100 mph (160+ Km/h for us internationalist measurement system users) especially Sinners.
Alcaraz finally had a fairly high 1st serve rate but it is its weakest shot (too often 50+cm within the box) while Sinner struggled with his 1st rate.
Both incredible returners overall, seldom being aced, killing any 2nd lower than 150 km/h middle-box deliveries.
Sinner still has more upside in my opinion than Alcaraz who outplayed himself during the whole match. Sinner delivered a less stellar performance than against Djokovic in my impression.
As well as providing the best technical and tactical insights on tennis I've seen, you also have a great way with words Hugh, great work.
"But Djokovic has all but erased time’s receipts" etc.
After never being a Djokovic fan I now find myself rooting for him more and more. Hope he produces the goat level today and we see him use his clay experience to really test Sinner.
I totally agree. The calibre of the writing is top tier.
Thanks Stephen. That is much appreciated!
And thanks SR! I'm really hoping Djoker makes me eat my words. I want a classic slam match! We haven't had one in a while.
Oddmakers have Novak at am implied probability of winning at about 23%, and Musetti at about 14%.
About right I guess.
That NPC comment was brutal. And so true.
Nadim nailed it
In the immortal words of Tim Henman: yeah, absolutely. Watching that point you’d think Zverev is 5’10” and the No.50 in the world, not 6’6” and top 3. Where’s the attack? Where’s the variation? Andy Roddick had some interesting comments on the match on his podcast, which really boiled down to: Djokovic used his head and changed his strategy.
Right on, both matches!! I mean even the Musetti match technically went to 4. 👍👍👍
Not sure more needs to be said about Zverev, but I felt that quarterfinal performance put a nail in the coffin of the argument that he lacks guts. Just an incredibly passive performance. Go watch the 41-shot rally and you'll see a guy who has spent his entire life expecting someone else to make a mistake. He takes ZERO initiative in that point.
The fact that he makes quarters of slams/gets to world number 2 consistently playing that way is kind of a bad feedback loop.
Absolutely. It also doesn't say a lot for the men's tour right now. For sure, a weak era.
Hi Hugh,
Great analysis as always. However, I think I disagree on who those conditions favor regarding the Sinner - Djokovic matchup. While I can’t say for sure if Novak will enjoy longer physical rallies and can see a path where he eventually gets outlasted / out powered, I think the biggest difference between the 2023 Djokovic who pulled off a masterclass in serving and early ballstriking and this version of him is not in the physicality / movement department, but in reflexes/reactions and therefore vulnerability on return and to power/pace changes in general. If you look at their last two matchups, both on fast HC, Sinner’s decisive advantage was found not in the longer rallies category but in the serve-return dynamic.
So while those conditions will blunt Novak’s agressive strategies and force him to execute even better / more varied, I think the fact it also blunts the Italian’s power and especially serve is a good thing for him. When rallies develop, I don’t think he’ll be that much of an underdog. Problem is surviving those first few strikes and general changes of direction.
Good point. I agree Novak's reactions have slowed a touch. I think when things slow down you want to have stopping power/enough speed to still play plus-one tennis irrespective of conditions, and I think Sinner has that with his baseline game, but not sure Novak does. Tsitsipas and Medvedev have been vocal of the heavier balls favouring power guys like Alcaraz and Sinner. In rally, I would have given the edge to Novak, but I think that dynamic has also shifted; Sinner is fitter, better from the corners, able to hang in rallies, than he was prior to 2023. But Djokovic is a beast, and he'll empty the tank today. Looking forward to catching the replay, as I am sadly on court all day!
My pick is Novak in 5, with Djokovic finding an advantage on the FH side, making Sinner bleed out wide/consistency wise. I know you’ve opened your heart to Jannik’s FH, but I still think the Serb’s technique gives him a control edge
Would love that as another data point for the original thesis haha
Nice write up, as always.
I reckon Sinner in 3; Alacaraz in 3; then Alcaraz defeats Sinner in 5. Booking my slot on the sofa!
I'm hoping for a Sincaraz final in a way, but also hoping for some special semifinal matches in general. Some classics
The Mario Kart ghost analogy was very well-chosen, interesting write-up!
Thanks Lucas! What are your predictions today?
A small summary of the final that I was lucky enough to assist live in the stands.
First of all, a small comment about the public : overall very fair-play, no booing nor insults save for the 4th set where it was excessively pushing for Alcaraz with plenty of noise made between serves and clapping of 2nd serves by Sinner.
According to Infosys, the breakdown couldn't be more equal (193 vs 192 pts in favor of Sinner), they served 191 vs 194 times as well. Equal performance on return (Sinner won 2 out of 3 "extra points" from Alcaraz).
The difference lies in the clutch, because for the same number of breaks (7), Sinner had 12 games on the line versus 9 for Alcaraz. Likewise, Alcaraz won many more points on the tie-breaks.
It is pattern that tends to sediment in that H2H : very equal on a point-by-point basis (even a slight edge for Sinner) but Alcaraz is overperforming in the clutch. If you follow the in-depth data analysis from Jeff Sackmann, it cannot last forever and Sinner is bound to have a return of sorts in the future.
However, this match, it is surprising to see how strikingly they built on their strenght. The rally length analysis gives a big edge to Sinner for short rallyes (less than 4 shots, +13), meanwhile midle-menght (5-9) & long rallyes yielded -13 altogether. The extra ace by Sinner gives the point edge.
So basically, Sinner is better at "match tennis" meanwhile Alcaraz is better at "game tennis". The visual impression from the stands confirms this as Sinner is an exceptionnal spot server, reaching within 10 cm from the lines. I cannot also emphasize enough the quality of their 2nd serves, routinely over 100 mph (160+ Km/h for us internationalist measurement system users) especially Sinners.
Alcaraz finally had a fairly high 1st serve rate but it is its weakest shot (too often 50+cm within the box) while Sinner struggled with his 1st rate.
Both incredible returners overall, seldom being aced, killing any 2nd lower than 150 km/h middle-box deliveries.
Sinner still has more upside in my opinion than Alcaraz who outplayed himself during the whole match. Sinner delivered a less stellar performance than against Djokovic in my impression.