Roland Garros Semifinals Preview

altitude traders — chasing ghosts — "you fight great, but I'm a great fighter"

Men’s semifinals day. Cooler conditions with a passing shower or two.

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Alcaraz vs Musetti

Alcaraz leads the H2H 5-1, with Musetti winning their initial meeting on the clay in Hamburg back in 2022. Since that win, the Italian has only won one set.

Alcaraz is 36-2 against one-handed backhands on tour. Losses to Musetti in Hamburg (2022), and Dimitrov in Miami (2024).

In their recent Monte Carlo final I noted that Alcaraz had early intentions to play hard into the Musetti forehand in a bid to create open court into the Italian’s one-handed backhand:

Get the one-hander playing defense against Alcaraz and the assignment becomes nearly impossible.

Alcaraz also had similar tactics on deuce serves, going wide before playing his drop volley into the open court:

Anyone standing that deep on return — Medvedev, Zverev, Musetti — is vulnerable to a good volleyer with soft hands.

Musetti won the opening set in this match by dictating the ground game with his forehand. Or, said another way, Alcaraz lost this first set by playing from deep court positions and getting sucked into Musetti’s parabolic brand of tennis. An excerpt:

Musetti was too comfortable having more time with Alcaraz’s deep return position, as he is adept at playing high and heavy off his back foot from deep regions. Musetti wants you to engage in an old-school clay battle, and as good as Alcaraz can play that game, it was in the Spaniard’s interests to rush the Italian, even on slow clay.

In the second set Alcaraz stood closer in on return and attacked the Musetti forehand from both wings. The payoff was immediate with early breaks.

“I think obviously what is very apparent is that the ball is back on Musetti a little bit quicker. He’s not quite got the time to set up his plus-one that he had earlier on in this match.”

— Tennis TV

I think this match will get picked up where Alcaraz left off in the second and third sets in Monte Carlo: aggressive court positions on return, early attacks into the Musetti forehand from both wings, wide serves on deuce with serve-and-volley droppers. Ditto forehand drop shots. Calibrated violence. The Spaniard will dictate who wins.

Musetti and Alcaraz are both tier 1 returners on clay, but they go about it very differently. Musetti loves to play from deep positions and use his spins, heights, and defensive tricks to suck players into his brand of tennis. Alcaraz is capable of returning from deep on second serves, but he is also capable of taking the ball early and applying time-stealing pressure from the first shot. Image from Tennis Insights.

But this won’t be a procession. Forget their H2H; the Italian is a much fitter, stronger, and confident player today, and he was running on fumes in Monte Carlo. The forehand is high and heavy, and capable of a stiff injection of pace when on the dead run. The backhand is web-like, weaving slice and looping topspin to disrupt timing via a clever array of altitude changes. Alcaraz is capable of engaging in this game himself, but it’s not in his interests in this particular matchup. The dips and lulls that tend to interrupt Alcaraz’s steamrolling need to be kept in check, because Musetti is playing well enough to take any small chances.

Prediction: Musetti is an elite defender at the peak of his powers, but Alcaraz at his best is indefensible. Alcaraz in 4.

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Sinner vs Djokovic

The H2H is tied at 4-4, with Sinner wrestling the momentum from Djokovic in recent times.

This is a fascinating match.

Jannik Sinner’s last three opponents — Bublik, Rublev, and Lehecka — would nearly have enough games to feasibly win a match if they pooled all their games together. Nearly. The score lines are approaching Nadal 2008 territory.

Meanwhile, Novak Djokovic has been just as ruthless, only dropping the first set to Alexander Zverev in their quarterfinal clash on Wednesday, before surgically removing the German from Paris with a mixture of backhand drop shots and serve-volley.

This is the pair’s first grand slam meeting since the 2024 Australian Open semifinals, which Sinner won without dropping serve or facing a break point — something which had never happened in 417 grand slam matches for the Serb. A lot has happened since then. Namely, three grand slams for Sinner, and none for Djokovic.

Turning 38 on the eve of the tournament, Djokovic was reminded of his age with Nadal’s retirement ceremony. But Djokovic has all but erased time’s receipts through a ruthless blend of asceticism and cutting-edge science. The movement and flexibility are still elite.

But are they still record breaking?

He may need it today.

Sinner’s game is basically the T-1000 to Djokovic’s original Terminator Model 101 game style: suffocating returns, spot serves, elite movement from the corners, relentless consistency.

Sinner just does it with more spin and power, and that’s going to count in cool clay conditions:

This was from their 2024 Australian Open semifinal match. Sinner’s speeds also match (forehand) or beat (backhand) Djokovic’s.

In big matches, I’m reminded of a quote from Australian sports psychologist Jonah Oliver:

“Competition is an ordinary performance on a special day.”

It’s meant to remind you that you’ve done the training and must now execute what you are capable of. Nothing more.

But given their career arcs, Djokovic may need something closer to special. He’ll be playing a version of himself that seems to push the envelope on everything he is and was: taller, more powerful, more aggressive. I think Djokovic is capable, but he’s going to need to thread the needle. Kind of like beating your ghost time in Mario Kart, but you got one shot.

No restarts.

From an X’s and O’s perspective, I think it’s a bad matchup for this version of Nole.

Whereas Zverev’s deep court positioning and NPC rally tactics allowed Djokovic to use drop shots and serve-volley to shorten points and find finishes, Sinner won’t. He stands closer in on returns, and hits harder. Novak’s going to have to find ways to win with bread-and-butter forehands and backhands more often. And he’s going to get taken to the same deep waters he took others when in his physical prime.

Sinner, like Djokovic, stands closer in on 2nd serve returns compared to Zverev. 58% is obscene (small sample of just Rome, however). Chart from Tennis Insights

In recent Djokovic wins, such as the utterly brilliant ATP Finals match from 2023, Djokovic outclassed Sinner with elite serving accuracy and lethal forehand speed. He never gave the Italian a chance to find his feet, and never let the contest get too physical. But that was on a very quick indoor hard court. It’s going to be much harder to execute such a performance in slow clay conditions. Those tactics are going to get blunted, and when it comes to aggression and taking control of the rally, I think Sinner is going to have the firepower to hit through the court and test whether Djokovic can keep up with his ghost.

One massive difference in effectiveness between Zverev and Sinner is in their down-the-line forehand. I thought Zverev hit that well in the opening set he won against Djokovic, but was predictable and unthreatening for the remainder.

That won’t be the case with Sinner. He will hit the forehand bigger and go line more often, and that is going to test the legs and lungs of Djokovic.

But as Djokovic said before this match:

“These kind of matchups and challenges, in a way, extract the best out of me.”

I’m getting Rocky III vibes. Apollo, reminding Rocky: “You fight great, but I’m a great fighter.”

Prediction: No one is better at silencing doubters than Novak, but if both men deliver an ordinary Terminator performance, the day will be Sinner’s, and in 3 sets.