Indian Wells Quarterfinal Preview

predictions — quads — backhand power — crush and rush

Mar 14, 2024

The battle royale of the desert has been whittled down to eight men. A look at today’s quarterfinal matches.

Lehecka vs. Sinner

“Huge firepower from both wings” isn’t a term that applies convincingly to many players. In this match, it does for both. Sinner’s recent exploits make him the best player in the world, but that is because the groundstroke heat has been synthesised with an uptick in end-range defence, change-of-direction consistency (i.e., changing with margin and safety) and serve potency. There’s a Djokovic-like quality to his game now, and by that I mean even working out a game plan to beat him — never mind the execution — takes some head scratching. I still think the running forehand is the weak link, but the Italian is patching that with ever more consistency and confidence.

"He's been playing awesome tennis. My fitness trainer taught me a term that they use in Argentina. When somebody is playing unbelievable, they say they're playing naked, and he's absolutely playing naked right now."
— Tommy Paul on Sinner from @marioboc17

I first watched Jiri Lehecka live at the Australian Open in 2022 when he took on Grigor Dimitrov as a qualifier. He lost that match in four sets, but the backhand and overall weight of shot left an impression on me. Now under the tutelage of former Czech great, Tomas Berdych, the 22-year-old has brought his best ~~quads~~ tennis to the desert this week.

"I see similarities in their quads first and foremost" -- Tennis TV commentator on Berdych being Lehecka's coach.

I wrote about Lehecka at last year’s Australian Open after an impressive display of backhands helped take down Felix Auger-Aliassime in the third round. The backhand is as good as ever — he was averaging 80 mph against Rublev. To give you an idea of how big that is, the tour average mph for the backhand is 67 mph according to Gill Gross. Heck, the tour average off the forehand is 75 mph.

It’s a standoff when it comes to power. But the differences lie in the movement and first-serve potency. Lehecka’s ham-hocked legs don’t move quite as well as his lithe opponent, and if he doesn’t get on top early in the points, his end-range capabilities will get exposed. It will be interesting to see if Sinner drops back on second serve returns to take a big cut, or if he holds the baseline to starve Lehecka of time to swing on the plus-one ball.

Prediction: Lehecka has the firepower to take the racquet out of anyone’s hand, but it would take a flawless performance. Still, he’s been combining incredible power with consistency this week, so he’s not an unlikely candidate to put an end to Sinner’s streak without requiring a subpar performance from the Italian. Sinner’s superior movement and serve, coupled with an equally impressive baseline arsenal, and his “naked” mentality give him the edge. Sinner in 3.

Required protection for Lehecka vs Sinner groundstroke rallies.

Ruud vs. Paul

Casper Ruud’s hardcourt resurgence continued this week. The Norwegian has already amassed more hardcourt wins this year (13) than he did in the entirety of 2023. The forehand has been hit with more intent, and from my viewing this week it looks like he has been content to keep the backhand crosscourt (data, anyone?). Against Monfils early on he was a little passive and got sucked into the extended, cagey exchanges the talented Frenchman enjoys, but upped the aggression as the match wore on.

These are the elements that helped Ruud reach the 2022 US Open final: making a high percentage of first-serve returns, courtesy of the chip/block; hunting for forehands from the ad-court; stepping in and playing inside the baseline when allowed.

Tommy Paul has progressed through the draw quietly, helped by Novak Djokovic’s shock-loss to lucky loser Luca Nardi in the third round. The American has found form on US soil in recent weeks, taking the title at the Dallas 250 (def. Giron) and backing it up with a final run at the Delray Beach 250 (lost to Fritz).

As the best mover of the American men, he’s found success playing defense and hustling, but what I liked against Nardi was his willingness to use his flat backhand and footspeed to “crush-and-rush” the net. He did this twice in the first game, but also numerous times in the rally off a Nardi short ball.

Against Ruud, I suspect Paul will try to rush the Norwegian in a similar manner. Paul is comfortable flattening his backhand off the high ball — a shot Ruud uses with a lot of spin — and will try to rush Ruud into errors.

Prediction: I think these conditions suit Ruud slightly better than Paul; it helps his heavy game and provides him with a little more time to prepare his shots. Still, Paul’s movement and ability to take on the high ball — especially with his backhand — make this a compelling match. I’m leaning Ruud. His forehand holds the fate of this match. Ruud in 3.

Alcaraz vs. Zverev

Indian Wells is proving to be an important oasis on the calendar for Alcaraz. The defending champion came in short of titles and match wins this year following a shock loss to Zverev at the Australian Open and then a freak rolled ankle in the early stages of his South American campaign last month. So far in the desert he has looked back to his best. The forehand is massive. I love this shot when he has the height and time to unload on it.

And this is kind of the problem for Alcaraz against Zverev. The forehand can be too tempting. He wants to unload on it ad infinitum.

That’s a ridiculous combo of speed and spin.

Zverev snuck through against de Minaur in the last round, but the young Aussie’s strategy was effective: low and slow to the German’s backhand, and then slow to the forehand as well! It sounds counterintuitive to give a top pro slow balls to their forehand, but Zverev’s forehand lacks racquet speed and racquet face control; forcing him to dictate off a weak ball exposes this flaw to the fullest. Zverev is okay hitting his forehand crosscourt, but his ability to time and/or generate line forehands is really his achilles heel.

But we have seen him enjoy (and win) plenty of important matches against Alcaraz (the German leads their H2H 5-3). I think Zverev feels less pressure playing the poster boy of men’s tennis, and Alcaraz’s offensive game lets Sascha play an instinctive brand of counterpunching that he thrives on.

Prediction: If Zverev serves well he will give himself chances. Alcaraz can take inspiration from de Minaur’s strategy and fuse that with his offensive game. The Spaniard needs to be disciplined with the forehand; keep it cross court and high and test Zverev’s mettle on that wing early. Don’t get sucked into topspin backhand exchanges; be patient from that side. The German is at his best through that channel. Alcaraz in 2.

Rune vs. Medvedev

I’m really looking forward to this one. Curios to see how Holger plays it. Last time they played, in the Rome final, I felt Rune was too passive and looked most dangerous when attacking and moving forward with his forehand. How much serve volley, drop shot, and slice, will be incorporated to unsettle Medvedev today? How aggressive will he try to be with the forehand? Both have very good backhands, both move very well, and on big points I’d argue both are natural-born counterpunchers.

Yesterday Medvedev weathered Dimitrov’s aggression and looked on song early.

Dangerous to hit deep to Medvedev when coming in. Better to hit the plus-one ball short so you don’t give him a chance to take a full cut on the passing shot. It’s harder to do off that kind of return that Medvedev hits, but if Dimitrov had serve-volleyed on that it would have been easier. See below for an example from last year’s final on how to expose the deep return position, even without an angle.

Medvedev also showed glimpses of his Australian Open aggression, baiting Dimitrov into a double fault early on by standing up inside the baseline on a second serve, but overall this was a constriction job. He kept his unforced error tally at five and looked sharp with the movement.

Rune certainly has the shots to beat Medvedev, but it’s a question of if he can bring the pieces of his game together in a manner that makes sense; that’s still a puzzle to him, his team, and us. So far in his young career he’s struggled to find a firm sense of identity on the court.

I love his ability to rush the return, take his backhand inside-out, and play with an overall degree of variation that mirrors Alcaraz at times. It’s just a little more smudged at this point.

Against Fritz, Rune was able to turn that around — and save a match point — by playing further up the court.

Of course, Medvedev is a superior defender to Fritz, but I still think Rune needs to take this match to the Russian and use his forecourt abilities as best he can.

Here Rune gets his feet fully around the approach forehand. He’s been guilty of missing that last step at times. His feel and awareness around the net are fantastic for a 20-year-old.

Prediction: Gut says Rune, head says Medvedev. Holger has been steadily finding his confidence and better tennis in recent weeks, and this slower hardcourt suits him better in the matchup. Still, the Russian plays a brand of tennis that demands clarity of thought and tactic from an opponent who lacks that at times. Medvedev in 2.

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