always a great reading whenever you post something ! Fonseca's sucess is no suprise for people like us that are very technique oriented :))) ! kid has so huge firepower coupled with consitency ! he is eratic at times due to overfiring i would say ! he is a joy to watch ! his forehand reminds me of prime federer, very fluid, powerful and efficient on any coming balls ! his backhand as discused is elite and deadly as well but less talked abt cause overshadow with the frhd ! Clay is obvisously the surface he grew on and the most suited to his game ! I have no doubts he will be a great great threats to anyone on european clay seoson and especially RG.
Joao had to beat 4 Argentines this week - Etcheverry, Coria, Navone, and Cerundolo. Not once did he get flustered by the Davis Cup-like crowd that was whistling in between 1st and 2nd serves, unlike other players who played Argentines such as Zverev and Rune.
It reminds me about what you say about great technique and nerves - the top players, like the Big 3, get nervous, but their superb technique allowed them to maintain their level in big moments. I can see that with Joao
I also loved that he didn't sit and wait for things to get quiet. That can let doubt creep in. He just got to the line, did his routine, and started the serve.
That youngest ATP title winner table...Hewitt in there twice, at an unbelievable 16 years old!?!
I remember watching Hewitt (though admittedly, not very closely, since this was the tennis hinterlands for the ATP between the Sampras/Agassi and Federer era) and what I remember most was foot speed and grit. Basically Demon but with slightly more firepower and lots more spunk?
Looking at the draw of that 1998 Adelaide tournament, Lleyton was a WC and had a good draw (top seed Norman out after first round, second seed Guga out after second), but he still had to beat Agassi in tiebreaks in the semis. That tournament had a C. Ruud - Christian, Casper's dad!
It was an era where a counterpuncher could have their day with an aggressive player. Pre poly for most guys. I always wonder how Hewitt's career would have turned out if polyester was banned.
I think though Joao has to improve his movements and return of serve which is to me key for aiming bigger tournaments ! Alcaraz at the same age ( can't avoid the comparison ) was mooving way better and overall slighty more complete than joao ( joao has better backhand, the serve is maybe slightly better and forehand is equally good as Alcaraz i think but any other aspects alcaraz was better...movements, slices, net game, dropshots...) he has plenty things than need and will be refined to be a slam contender and rival of Sincaraz in the coming years !
I think Joao clearly has a better serve, but you're right about the movement and intangibles. Can't wait to watch these guys play over the next few years along with Sinner
I don't think Alcaraz has quite the injection of pace forehand that Sinner and Fonseca have. It reminds me of Del Po, the just flat out video game type winner. Hugh referenced the Del Po example.
Q1. If the desired technical FH global maximums between the two are both positive and quite similar why is it that João is able to/goes for "more" on his FH? Because it was interesting you mentioned in the thread that João was possibly trying to redline his dynamism on his FH side? "That’s pretty much expected from Fonseca’s end; there’s plenty of misses that you can just chalk up to the kid trying to redline. And who wouldn’t at 18 with the biggest forehand in the game? Calibrating his limits will be a work in progress." How comes if the global maximums are both positive and in line with the ideals why is João's FH the one that is bigger than Francisco's? (Bearing in mind Francisco can club the s*** out of the ball). Also how comes he already has as you mentioned one of the biggest forehands in the game right now if Francisco's share the same positive traits? Is there a FH dynamism ceiling? Is it the "shooter's mentality" approach with the current gen as you put it? If Francisco and João's FH are technically ideal where is the fine line separation that allows João to leapfrog Francisco right now? How would Francisco improve his FH/close the gap between his FH and the top percentage guys?
Q2. You mentioned when praising João's FH "Reminiscent of so many great forehands: Thiem, Nadal, Djokovic, Alcaraz, Sinner, Wawrinka, Cerundolo, young FRAUDerer (but eastern points the strings to the side)." Interesting you highlighted on the Eastern FH that the strings are pointing out towards the side naturally, does this have any implications/effects on the FH that you notice compared to the Semi-Western/Full Western gripped counterparts that have the strings pointing to the back?
1) I've got a couple of theories. One is, I am wondering if the current frame tech means a lower swingweight (Cerundolo in the 380s (!), Fonseca 332 reportedly) allows this more slingshot technique (Alcaraz, Sinner, Fonseca) to fire away with less time compared to the Cerundolo/Djoker specs. Karue Sell always says how much faster the game is now, and that's why racquet specs are getting lighter; if you swing something heavy you just need a lot of time to unload now, whereas the swings of Fonseca et al allow them to unload still with less time. Another one is to do with grips that I will explain in death of a forehand part iv.
2) All these setups have wrist extension/neutral maybe a bit, but if you're grip is more conservative, it will change how the strings are irrespective of wrist and arm setups. See here:
Great piece as always, even though the breakdown of the match is not as thorough as at the end of 2024.
Your pieces on techniques have been an eye-opener about how to assess what unfolds on TV.
As a French man, I understand there won't be any piece about the Marseilles tournament although a comment about Medjedovic would be interesting : his results are speaking for themselve, but how has an overweight trickster been doing such a deep run ?
Fonseca is already clearly one of the very best(I would say at least top 4 or 5 clay courters) in the world. The only players that may be favored over him at the FO in any match will probably be Alcaraz and Sinner. Cerundolo is right there also, one of the best clay courters in the world, but certainly behind Fonseca. The 3 Masters 1000's on clay, and the FO, should be a ranking explosion for Fonseca. That racquet lag on the forehand at its deepest, forearm to racquet shaft, is well past 90 degrees, maybe even 60 degrees or so. It is a scary shot. Interestingly, Cerundolo uses a bit of an old school racquet, with modern strings. He uses a Head PT57A, which has been around a long time, and a favorite of many ex pros. It is weighted up to a 380 swingweight, a static weight of 360.
I’m going to ask the stupid question because I just want to be sure I have understood this. Internal shoulder rotation = when you hold your arm straight and twist the wrist (so radius/ulna rotate); external shoulder rotation = when you rotate the upper arm (humerus rotates). Have I got this right? Because I literally spent half an hour searching the other day without resolution.
I just realised the confusion is probably because i referenced it on both forehands and serves. But it's true, internal and external rotation can happen in both instances, and the reddit thread shows that.
Imagine throwing a ball. As your hand flies back behind your head out of view, your shoulder is externally rotating, and then as it comes forward it is internally rotating. It's a tricky concept, but this reddit thread with a visual is pretty good!
Uh, no offence, but those are the worst diagrams ever! Completely ambiguous. (Also, reddit marks them as NSFW, because of the flesh tones, I assume.) I'm no wiser.
Superb as ever, and so exciting to watch Fonseca coming up. Is he destined to challenge Alcaraz/Sinner? ('Clayiest' sounds ludicrous but is in fact a word – who knew?)
I think to add to the analysis, Fonseca also has great timing when turning on the ball a little early. It's a bigger forehand, but taking the ball a second earlier and turning on it for a winner reminds me a bit of Nishikori. Kei needs to do this to generate power, but Fonseca does it to vary the pace and surprise opponents.
Hugh, speaking of today's date, who so far has the best forehand on tour among Sinner, Alcaraz and Joao...i feel Fonseca by the end of the year will be leading forehands stats !
In terms of what? Speed and spin? Or winners to unforced errors? I think he could top the speed category. I think Sinner and Alcaraz would beat him in the winners to unforced errors category
He's actually considerably flatter than Alcaraz (~3200) or Sinner (~3000) at 2700 rpms, but his average speed is the same as Alcaraz and a little faster than Sinner. That data gets muddied to me though, as it includes all forehands that may be played defensively because of their good movement. On stand alone set forehands, I think Alcaraz's is the biggest in terms of speed and spin
That's according to Tennis Insights. If you go to their twitter page and scroll back to december, they have a graph of spin and speed rates of all the top-100 guys
I think Fonseca still misses way too many wild forehands to be considered the best, but it may be the biggest. His return of serve forehand is also nowhere near as good as his rally forehand, whereas someone like Sinner is so so good on his forehand return.
Feel like sinner is the most complete forehand out of bunch cause both alcaraz and Fonseca forehands returns of serve are the weak spot ! However I feel fonseca has margin of improvement and his forehand technique is simple and quick which will help him on fast surfaces whereas we know alcaraz forehand is exposed when rushed due to long preparation
Hugh great recap on a very promising player. On Fonseca's serve, do you think it could benefit from the racquet head not being cocked up while in the trophy pose and waiting for the ball to come down? Seems a bit of racquet speed is lost during that moment.
It’s kind of what Alcaraz changed to create a more fluid motion. So it might not create more speed (it might also) but it would probably create a more repeatable and smoother motion on the joints also. Will have to wait and see how it’s performing in the next few years when he fills out/stops physically developing. I wouldn’t change it now; hitting it above 220 and getting big kick on the second
Appreciate the serve comparisons. Excellent illustrations.
Thanks Doug!
always a great reading whenever you post something ! Fonseca's sucess is no suprise for people like us that are very technique oriented :))) ! kid has so huge firepower coupled with consitency ! he is eratic at times due to overfiring i would say ! he is a joy to watch ! his forehand reminds me of prime federer, very fluid, powerful and efficient on any coming balls ! his backhand as discused is elite and deadly as well but less talked abt cause overshadow with the frhd ! Clay is obvisously the surface he grew on and the most suited to his game ! I have no doubts he will be a great great threats to anyone on european clay seoson and especially RG.
Joao had to beat 4 Argentines this week - Etcheverry, Coria, Navone, and Cerundolo. Not once did he get flustered by the Davis Cup-like crowd that was whistling in between 1st and 2nd serves, unlike other players who played Argentines such as Zverev and Rune.
It reminds me about what you say about great technique and nerves - the top players, like the Big 3, get nervous, but their superb technique allowed them to maintain their level in big moments. I can see that with Joao
I also loved that he didn't sit and wait for things to get quiet. That can let doubt creep in. He just got to the line, did his routine, and started the serve.
Also, all of those players in that Top 10 list made at least one grand slam final
Yeah it's nice company to be in :)
That youngest ATP title winner table...Hewitt in there twice, at an unbelievable 16 years old!?!
I remember watching Hewitt (though admittedly, not very closely, since this was the tennis hinterlands for the ATP between the Sampras/Agassi and Federer era) and what I remember most was foot speed and grit. Basically Demon but with slightly more firepower and lots more spunk?
Looking at the draw of that 1998 Adelaide tournament, Lleyton was a WC and had a good draw (top seed Norman out after first round, second seed Guga out after second), but he still had to beat Agassi in tiebreaks in the semis. That tournament had a C. Ruud - Christian, Casper's dad!
It was an era where a counterpuncher could have their day with an aggressive player. Pre poly for most guys. I always wonder how Hewitt's career would have turned out if polyester was banned.
I think though Joao has to improve his movements and return of serve which is to me key for aiming bigger tournaments ! Alcaraz at the same age ( can't avoid the comparison ) was mooving way better and overall slighty more complete than joao ( joao has better backhand, the serve is maybe slightly better and forehand is equally good as Alcaraz i think but any other aspects alcaraz was better...movements, slices, net game, dropshots...) he has plenty things than need and will be refined to be a slam contender and rival of Sincaraz in the coming years !
I think Joao clearly has a better serve, but you're right about the movement and intangibles. Can't wait to watch these guys play over the next few years along with Sinner
Yeah just like Murray said himself we cant way for a alcaraz vs Fonseca match up ! It will be absolutely amazing !
I don't think Alcaraz has quite the injection of pace forehand that Sinner and Fonseca have. It reminds me of Del Po, the just flat out video game type winner. Hugh referenced the Del Po example.
Q1. If the desired technical FH global maximums between the two are both positive and quite similar why is it that João is able to/goes for "more" on his FH? Because it was interesting you mentioned in the thread that João was possibly trying to redline his dynamism on his FH side? "That’s pretty much expected from Fonseca’s end; there’s plenty of misses that you can just chalk up to the kid trying to redline. And who wouldn’t at 18 with the biggest forehand in the game? Calibrating his limits will be a work in progress." How comes if the global maximums are both positive and in line with the ideals why is João's FH the one that is bigger than Francisco's? (Bearing in mind Francisco can club the s*** out of the ball). Also how comes he already has as you mentioned one of the biggest forehands in the game right now if Francisco's share the same positive traits? Is there a FH dynamism ceiling? Is it the "shooter's mentality" approach with the current gen as you put it? If Francisco and João's FH are technically ideal where is the fine line separation that allows João to leapfrog Francisco right now? How would Francisco improve his FH/close the gap between his FH and the top percentage guys?
Q2. You mentioned when praising João's FH "Reminiscent of so many great forehands: Thiem, Nadal, Djokovic, Alcaraz, Sinner, Wawrinka, Cerundolo, young FRAUDerer (but eastern points the strings to the side)." Interesting you highlighted on the Eastern FH that the strings are pointing out towards the side naturally, does this have any implications/effects on the FH that you notice compared to the Semi-Western/Full Western gripped counterparts that have the strings pointing to the back?
1) I've got a couple of theories. One is, I am wondering if the current frame tech means a lower swingweight (Cerundolo in the 380s (!), Fonseca 332 reportedly) allows this more slingshot technique (Alcaraz, Sinner, Fonseca) to fire away with less time compared to the Cerundolo/Djoker specs. Karue Sell always says how much faster the game is now, and that's why racquet specs are getting lighter; if you swing something heavy you just need a lot of time to unload now, whereas the swings of Fonseca et al allow them to unload still with less time. Another one is to do with grips that I will explain in death of a forehand part iv.
2) All these setups have wrist extension/neutral maybe a bit, but if you're grip is more conservative, it will change how the strings are irrespective of wrist and arm setups. See here:
https://hughclarke.substack.com/p/zverev-x-alcaraz-madrid-round-16
Great piece as always, even though the breakdown of the match is not as thorough as at the end of 2024.
Your pieces on techniques have been an eye-opener about how to assess what unfolds on TV.
As a French man, I understand there won't be any piece about the Marseilles tournament although a comment about Medjedovic would be interesting : his results are speaking for themselve, but how has an overweight trickster been doing such a deep run ?
Maybe I'll drop a mid-week piece about Humbert/Medjedovic, as well as Shapovalov last week in Dallas
Fonseca is already clearly one of the very best(I would say at least top 4 or 5 clay courters) in the world. The only players that may be favored over him at the FO in any match will probably be Alcaraz and Sinner. Cerundolo is right there also, one of the best clay courters in the world, but certainly behind Fonseca. The 3 Masters 1000's on clay, and the FO, should be a ranking explosion for Fonseca. That racquet lag on the forehand at its deepest, forearm to racquet shaft, is well past 90 degrees, maybe even 60 degrees or so. It is a scary shot. Interestingly, Cerundolo uses a bit of an old school racquet, with modern strings. He uses a Head PT57A, which has been around a long time, and a favorite of many ex pros. It is weighted up to a 380 swingweight, a static weight of 360.
Not sure if he is top 4 or 5 yet, but he's probably close and will only get closer! Yep Cerundolo uses an absolute hammer of a stick.
I’m going to ask the stupid question because I just want to be sure I have understood this. Internal shoulder rotation = when you hold your arm straight and twist the wrist (so radius/ulna rotate); external shoulder rotation = when you rotate the upper arm (humerus rotates). Have I got this right? Because I literally spent half an hour searching the other day without resolution.
I just realised the confusion is probably because i referenced it on both forehands and serves. But it's true, internal and external rotation can happen in both instances, and the reddit thread shows that.
Imagine throwing a ball. As your hand flies back behind your head out of view, your shoulder is externally rotating, and then as it comes forward it is internally rotating. It's a tricky concept, but this reddit thread with a visual is pretty good!
https://www.reddit.com/r/Anatomy/comments/1byauw8/what_and_why_is_this_considered_external_rotation/
Uh, no offence, but those are the worst diagrams ever! Completely ambiguous. (Also, reddit marks them as NSFW, because of the flesh tones, I assume.) I'm no wiser.
Lol. Try this then: It's a video from Bruce Elliot, who is one of the leading biomechanics researchers in tennis:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_n1xCSM1bVY
Or this for the forehand:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vO1ySdyANLk
FYI, if anyone else is having a problem with the gifs not loading in the app they showed up fine for me in the email version of the article
The best experience is to read on a desktop/laptop with good internet, but I know that’s not always possible! :)
Superb as ever, and so exciting to watch Fonseca coming up. Is he destined to challenge Alcaraz/Sinner? ('Clayiest' sounds ludicrous but is in fact a word – who knew?)
I think so. Tracking on their path at a similar age, and tracking with the eye test too!
What a time to be alive!
I think to add to the analysis, Fonseca also has great timing when turning on the ball a little early. It's a bigger forehand, but taking the ball a second earlier and turning on it for a winner reminds me a bit of Nishikori. Kei needs to do this to generate power, but Fonseca does it to vary the pace and surprise opponents.
Hugh, speaking of today's date, who so far has the best forehand on tour among Sinner, Alcaraz and Joao...i feel Fonseca by the end of the year will be leading forehands stats !
In terms of what? Speed and spin? Or winners to unforced errors? I think he could top the speed category. I think Sinner and Alcaraz would beat him in the winners to unforced errors category
I would love to know his spin rates on that forehand. Probably up there with with Alcaraz and Ruud.
He's actually considerably flatter than Alcaraz (~3200) or Sinner (~3000) at 2700 rpms, but his average speed is the same as Alcaraz and a little faster than Sinner. That data gets muddied to me though, as it includes all forehands that may be played defensively because of their good movement. On stand alone set forehands, I think Alcaraz's is the biggest in terms of speed and spin
That's according to Tennis Insights. If you go to their twitter page and scroll back to december, they have a graph of spin and speed rates of all the top-100 guys
Would be leading the tennis insight 2025 statistics of forehand quality was what I meant so it basically takes everything into account
I think Fonseca still misses way too many wild forehands to be considered the best, but it may be the biggest. His return of serve forehand is also nowhere near as good as his rally forehand, whereas someone like Sinner is so so good on his forehand return.
Feel like sinner is the most complete forehand out of bunch cause both alcaraz and Fonseca forehands returns of serve are the weak spot ! However I feel fonseca has margin of improvement and his forehand technique is simple and quick which will help him on fast surfaces whereas we know alcaraz forehand is exposed when rushed due to long preparation
Oh right, I forgot about the insight stat until after my comment
Hugh great recap on a very promising player. On Fonseca's serve, do you think it could benefit from the racquet head not being cocked up while in the trophy pose and waiting for the ball to come down? Seems a bit of racquet speed is lost during that moment.
It’s kind of what Alcaraz changed to create a more fluid motion. So it might not create more speed (it might also) but it would probably create a more repeatable and smoother motion on the joints also. Will have to wait and see how it’s performing in the next few years when he fills out/stops physically developing. I wouldn’t change it now; hitting it above 220 and getting big kick on the second