Zverev x Alcaraz: Madrid Round-16 Clash

matchups—forehands

Given the weird extended schedule that a 96-draw presents, I thought a quick match analysis between Zverev and Alcaraz warranted a post for two reasons. Firstly, as bad as Zverev played in this match, it was painfully clear to me that Zverev’s game matches up far better against Alcaraz than does Tsitsipas, who got demolished (by a kind scoreline) last month in Barcelona. And secondly, Zverev played one of the best matches of his career last year when he defeated Alcaraz in the quarterfinals of Roland Garros, only to injure his ankle in the semi-finals against Nadal. An excerpt from that piece:

• Zverev’s backhand was an exhibition. At 6’6’’ and with a wonderful high takeback that drops below the ball from the inside, he looked comfortable trading blows all day. Alcaraz always looked more susceptible to errors off that wing, and Zverev’s depth and pace made it hard for Alcaraz to shift into more forehand exchanges. This is partly the reason Alcaraz bled so many errors off both sides today; Zverev was crushing the backhand exchange harder than anyone can, moving well enough to cover any line ball, and—crucially—putting his running forehand back in play pretty well (something he doesn’t usually do well). He kept his running topspin forehand errors at 10 by my count, with only 4 across the first three sets.

• Zverev’s movement was amazing. He got to a lot of drop shots and made some big plays in the cat-and-mouse exchanges.

Today was a very different Zverev. The slow road to recovery and top form continues...

Using my stats methods Zverev missed 9 forehands under pressure and 8 without pressure for 17 topspin forehand misses.

Forehands

Similar to the Barcelona final against Tsitsipas, Alcaraz made his tactical intentions clear from the first few points, targeting the Zverev forehand on serve and then taking his first three rally ball forehands heavy into the German’s forehand. Overall Zverev’s forehand was abysmal today and he is the poster boy for what I contend is a shaky biomechanical setup that has emerged as a trend in younger players: a lowered racquet-tip takeback coupled with a flexed wrist.¹ Compare the racquet face orientation in setups between some great forehands and Zverev.²

Note how even Federer with an eastern forehand grip gets his strings facing the press gallery to the side. With a semi-western Carlos's strings are a little more pronounced/facing higher to the side, and finally, Djokovic—who owns the most extreme forehand grip of these three—has his strings facing even higher up toward the cheap seats. The biomechanics of their arms/wrists would be nearly identical; it is the differences in grips that create the different racquet face orientations. I'd wager Zverev's grip is somewhere between Carlos and Djokovic, yet his strings face down to the ground (a common coaching cue that misses the nuance of grip type. It might be more important for eastern and semi-western grips to simply ask the player to extend their wrist, rather than ask them to get the strings down). Three extended wrists versus Zverev's flexed wrist. Photocredits in footnote 2.

Now can you have a great forehand with Zverev mechanics? Sure. You could argue Berrettini approximates that setup (although I’d argue Berrettini has a more extreme grip that warrants flexion and has the racquet tip higher with a fuller takeback, so there is less wrist action in it and is more akin to Ruud and Fritz). But the best forehands tend to display features more like Alcaraz and Co. And there are numerous instances where this newer forehand trend seems to break down.

A closer look at the wrist position. Photocredit: François Goglins

Dominic Inglot: “Sadly that is quite a weak-looking forehand.”

That landed halfway up the net. This happened more than once in this match.

Off his huge first serve, Zverev gets so many looks at short forehands. It would make him a nightmare to break if he had more proficiency on the +1 ball like the below example.

But too often what we see is the tentative stroke of a player who deep down knows he lacks control on that side:

What should have been an offensive forehand gets turned into a weak shot that Alcaraz burns down the line for his own forced error.

Matchups

Forehands aside, Zverev’s stock game can trouble Alcaraz.³ His ability to drive his backhand hard and flat from any ball height and in both directions is exceptional, and this blunts the effectiveness of Alcaraz's stock pattern on clay where he massages the right-hander's backhand with heavy forehands. Note below that Zverev can get great depth and drive the backhand much faster than Tsitsipas, and this catches Alcaraz out of position. At 6'6" he can also step in and take it hard cross behind Alcaraz for a winner here.

TennisTV Commentators: “Just looking back to their last meeting though at the French Open—the rallies over 9 shots—Zverev won that battle, 21 to 17.”

Versus the same pattern last month in Barcelona against Tsitsipas’ one-handed backhand. The spinnier, loopier, and shorter backhand of Tsitsipas is what gives this pattern such an advantage to Alcaraz.

On these backhands it is infinitely harder for Tsitsipas to drive it hard down-the-line or take it early and hard crosscourt as Zverev did above.

As a result, Alcaraz gets fewer opportunities to run around and use the drop shot from the Ad-court forehand setup position–something he used to great effect against Tsitsipas. It also blunts the Ad-court kick serve play that is a hallmark of Alcaraz’s game on clay:

Dom Inglot: “Yeah, quality return there. Just taking that one very early. That’s the one issue that Alcaraz would have with that particular serve, is that he’s exposed down the line, but it’s so hard to execute it.”

Tsitsipas is just never going to have that return option in the toolbelt. He has to stand further back and find ways to rip the ball from a lower contact point. The problem is, Carlos loves coming forward on deep returners:

TennisTV Commentator: “Tennis is gonna change in the next five years if he’s serving and volleying on the clay….but doesn’t it make sense, though? If you’re standing that far back, it’s a head-scratcher why players don’t serve and volley more.”

And so the general pattern, where Zverev can pin Alcaraz into backhand exchanges and not be bothered by pace and spin in that corner, is what creates repeated instances of trouble for the Spaniard. By my count Alcaraz only managed 3 drop shots in yesterday’s encounter—two of which were forced off the backhand wing—and it’s because he doesn’t get the same opportunity from the ad-side against Zverev as he does from Tsitsipas: matchups matter. The trajectories, speeds, spins, court positions, comfortable contact points, and shot options (e.g. having the threat of taking it down-the-line in your opponent’s head) a player can use subtly shift the percentages of standard rally plays (e.g., backhand cross-courts or inside out forehands). And it is these subtle shifts in rally ball percentages, point after point, that will always make Zverev a greater threat to Alcaraz than Tsitsipas will ever be, despite Zverev and Tsitsipas being of comparable levels.

Alcaraz takes on a red-hot Karen Khachanov in about 10 minutes. What can the Russian do? He’s in career-best form and looks as confident as ever. I think Alcaraz will target the Russian’s forehand return on the deuce court, and use slow, heavy kick on the ad-court to the choked up backhand—such a serve strategy was used by Tsitsipas to great effect at the Australian Open in January.

I’ll be back with a final analysis at the conclusion of the tournament.

1. This includes Norrie, Paul, Hurkacz, Musetti, and Khachanov to name a few. Note that more extreme grips closer to Western (Musetti, Berrettini, Khachanov, Ruud, Fritz, Rublev, Tiafoe, etc.) tend to have more flexion in the setup as this aligns more closely with a neutral/maybe even slightly flexed contact point. My biggest issue is with less extreme, semi-western forehands (like Zverev) that setup with flexion.

2. Zverev photocredit: François Goglins

3. Their H2H is 3-2 in favor of the German. Sure, some of those wins are against a very young Alcaraz.