Fonseca — Death of a Backhand — Indian Wells Draw Preview

backhands — aesthetics — predictions

Something a little different after my post-Australian Open break. I’ve been on holidays and busy with the final semester of my thesis, although I hope to get back on a more frequent schedule from mid-March onwards.

João Fonseca

Given that junior tennis is seldom televised, it is always the whispers of a young talent’s name that laces its way through the latticework of Twitter well before their shots do.

‘Fonseca’ has been that whisper for some time.

Fonseca’s current forehand backswing is lower and kept more on the hitting side, with a lowered racquet head as well. Perhaps to adjust to the speed of the men’s game in comparison to juniors.

Last week at the Rio ATP 500 Fonseca announced his arrival to the mainstream tennis world, taking down Arthur Fils and Cristian Garin en route to a maiden quarterfinal in his home country’s biggest event. But it was less the scalps and more the manner of his scalping that got everyone excited.

The forehand is a cannon that has already spawned its own hype videos:

There’s a lot to love in the stroke: great use of the off-hand in the unit turn to coil the shoulders, a large separation angle in the shoulder and hips, that Federer/Alcaraz locked head behind the ball through contact (a feature that is essentially a reactive break/it helps players not “pull off” and away from the shot), and massive rotation of the upper body throughout the swing. Alcaraz seemed an appropriate comparison.

Left: similar setup position to Thiem and Alcaraz perhaps. The racquet is kept more on the hitting side with a slightly lower takeback, but with the racquet head still well above the hands. Right: You can see how well he turns his shoulders. When the shoulders are turned more than the hips it creates a 'separation angle'.

But for all the hype his forehand is getting, I’ve been more excited by the prospect of his backhand.

In recent times I’ve highlighted how deadly the line and off-backhand is in the men’s game given that players are always hunting for forehands from their backhand corners. This has been a feature I have written of Sinner, Medvedev, and Djokovic.

Many players have a great forehand but clear weaker backhand: Berrettini, Tsitsipas, Auger Aliassime, Dimitrov, Rublev, and Ruud come to mind. None have managed to win a slam, and I’d argue it is mostly to do with their backhands (yes, a certain Serbian has also proven a worthy roadblock).

However, as well as possessing great forehands, the top four of Djokovic, Alcaraz, Sinner, and Medvedev all possess backhands that are weapons in their own right (to varying degrees of success; Djokovic’s is the clear front-runner and Alcaraz’s is the most erratic).

Fonseca has an absolutely stunning double-hander. In fact, he already has his own “off-backhand” highlight video for the niche technical fans.

A full and high backswing that starts well inside the line of the ball. A left arm breaking the plane of the torso. In my mind it’s a matter of when, not if, the Fonseca backhand makes Tennis Insights top-10 shot rankings.¹

Note the left arm breaking the plane in the backswing, the hands well separated from the torso at contact (creating space and a sign of swinging 'in-to-out'), and the Sinner/Nadal/Nalbandian roll followthrough where the top hand works 'over' the shot, with the left-hand palm facing down.

If there is a glaring hole in Fonseca’s game, it is the serve. Fonseca’s serve — like many juniors who grow up on clay — has the stunted trophy position of a stroke that has lacked incentive to create speed (unlike his ground game).

“Show me the incentives, and I’ll show you the outcome.”

— Charlie Munger²

Compared to the tour’s biggest server in Ben Shelton — a likely future rival — they’re in different technical weight classes.

Which player looks more capable of exploding up to hit the ball? Shelton has coiled his upper body more, he has a deeper leg drive position, and he has incredible internal rotation of the shoulder. He is going to produce a lot more racquet head speed. Heavyweight v lightweight.

Tennis has had its fair share of teenage phenoms who have failed to materialise into grand slam winners: Richard Gasquet, Gael Monfils, and Bernard Tomic to name a few still playing. In its current iteration the sport is brutal and demands mastery of the game technically, tactically, and psychologically. It isn’t enough to have your glass half-full, and perhaps that last criteria — the psychology — is most important when it comes to nurturing the humility and self-awareness necessary to make changes in your game. Sinner has led the way in recent times. I have no doubt Fonseca can be a top player, but there are no guarantees.

Still, it is always exciting to have a young talent of Fonseca’s calibre emerge. There is a quality to his ball-striking that is undeniable and obvious on first viewing. As the sun begins to set on the Big-3, these are the players who have the potential to carry the torch in the men’s game.

I hope to have much more to write about the young Brazilian in the future.

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Death of a Backhand

February 2024 marked the first time since the inception of the ATP’s computer rankings that a one-handed backhand did not feature in the top-10. Stefanos Tsitsipas was out, Alex de Minaur was in. While there are roughly 10% of the top-100 still giving the one-hander life support, the trend is clear and will continue, given that Lorenzo Musetti is the sole trader under the age of 25 operating with one. Veterans like Stan Wawrinka, Richard Gasquet, and Dusan Lajovic have likely seen their best days, and the same might be true of Dominic Thiem, sadly, who currently sits at #98.

At the start of 2014 there were 12 men in the top-50 and 27 in the top-100 with a single-hander. This year that number has dropped to 5 in the top-50, and just 10 in the top-100.

An excerpt from my one-handed backhand piece:

“But it is still a tough shot to play in the modern game for the simple reason that the return of serve is more difficult with the single-hander. Even with the tricks of Almagro (who flips the racquet), the two-hander offers much more stability and control, and on the return that's what it's all about. And for the single-handers currently playing, the best way to improve their return is to improve their chip and block ability. If we look at the 52-week return ratings of the ATP tour it's not really a surprise that the top performing single-hander is...Dan Evans at #17. A man who barely plays topspin backhands. Next is Dimitrov, another excellent slice exponent, and then Gasquet (a block aficionado of first-serves). It’s probably also worth mentioning that they all use more eastern forehand grips (as does Tsitsipas), so the change of grips is minimal, and were all features Federer possessed that helped him to post great return stats.”

Could a single-hander still ascend the top of the rankings in the fast and aggressive modern game? I think so. Richard Gasquet’s 2023 backhand performance earned him seventh spot on Tennis Insight’s AI-drive list, and it was not that long ago that Stan Wawrinka and Dominic Thiem were earning grand slam silverware with deadly one-handed drives. Still, the vast majority of juniors are ushered toward the double-hander early on, possibly due to the intense desire to garner strong results from a young age, or because they wish to emulate their ever-increasing double-handed idols.

Perhaps a more important question: does it matter that the one-hander is dying out?

I think there is an aesthetic quality of the single-hander that is attractive, and therefore desirable. Sports are entertainment. Surface adjustments, balls, shot clocks, seeding structures, schedules, camera angles; all of these decisions were (and still are) made with the ‘product’ in mind. That we are losing an aesthetic shot, and one that brings variety to the visual experience, isn’t necessarily a good thing, but it has been exciting to see the next double-handed crop — Alcaraz, Rune, Sinner — willing to come forward, use the drop shot, attack returns, slice the backhand, and play with a degree of variation and athleticism that doesn’t have me worried; the kids are alright.

The game evolved; beauty has been handcuffed by function.

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Indian Wells Draw

The first Masters 1000 of the year gets underway tomorrow in the California Desert. Below is data from the last two editions courtesy of Twitter user @nishikoripicks:

• 71.1% Points won on the first serve

• 77.8% Service Holds

• 0.45 Aces/Game

• 0.18 TB/Set

“70% points won on 1st serve in qualifying of 2024 confirms these are slow conditions.”

A quick glance of each section…

First Quarter

Quarterfinal Prediction: Hurkacz def. Djokovic

Dark Horses: Alex Michelsen and Gael Monfils

Almost went with… Casper Ruud. In form and on a hard court that suits his game.

Summary: The court is bouncy, gritty, and aggressive swings around the shoulder are the bread and butter of Ruud, but Hurkacz tends to thrive in North America, and these conditions suit the big Pole as well. Djokovic hasn’t played since his semi-final loss to Sinner at the Australian Open and is making his first appearance since 2019.

Second Quarter

Quarterfinal Prediction: Dimitrov def. Fritz

Dark Horses: Tomas Machac and Denis Shapovalov

Almost went with…Holger Rune. He had a positive week in Mexico prior to arriving at Indian Wells, but consistency and fitness are still question marks

Summary: This is actually a pretty open section in my eyes. I see Cobolli giving Medvedev a good test on a court the Russian detests. Of course, Rafael Nadal sits in this quarter, but I wasn’t impressed by his Netflix Slam match against Alcaraz, and Raonic is such an unknown for a first opponent. Sebastian Baez has a good draw if he can recover from his South American victories and would be a tough test for any seed here.

Third Quarter

Quarterfinal Prediction: Sinner def. Rublev

Dark Horses: Emil Ruusuvuori and Alexander Shevchenko

Almost went with…Ben Shelton. His serve should be a handful in these conditions and he has played his best tennis in the States. If Mensik wins his opener that would be one to pencil in the schedule.

Summary: It’s hard to not pick Sinner given the level he’s shown in 2024. A decent draw. I think he will enjoy the extra time on the ball. Tsitsipas isn’t in top shape but with his serve and forehand he will be dangerous. Rublev comes in off the back of some disciplinary hot water and has a tough first round.

Fourth Quarter

Quarterfinal Prediction: Zverev def. Khachanov

Dark Horses: Jack Draper and Thiago Seyboth Wild

Almost went with… de Minaur. Has the form, has the draw, but not his ideal conditions.

Summary: A lot of interesting first round matches: Arnaldi v LVA, Popyrin v Marozsan, Wolf v TSW, Shang v Thompson. I have my eye on Arnaldi if he gets a crack at an out-of-sorts Alcaraz in Round 2, who looked a little careful with his movement in the Netflix Slam. I am also predicting Draper to give Zverev a real test.

1. I wrote a piece on the two-hand backhand that you can read here.

2. Who is the greatest server from the clay-dominated continent of South America? In contrast, if we go by the ATP’s career “serve rating” ranking (by no means a perfect metric, but it makes the point), nearly half the top-30 servers are from the US or Australia alone; two countries who play predominantly on faster hardcourts, and who possess national sports that involve a throwing motion (baseball and cricket) that help develop the serve.