Especially liked how you highlighted the crush and rush as the crucial moment of the moment in the second set. I shook my head in disbelief at such poor decision-making on such an important moment and thought I was seeing Rune. Tweeted about it immediately. Other than that, a pretty normal Djokovic win in those conditions
I wanna quickly have a word on Sinner because to me he really is a 2.0 version of Djokovic...The guy consistancy, hard court dominance, court coverage, backhand, return of serve ect remind me of the great nole but in addition he has the fire power that nole doesnt have... Hugh, you have highlighted in this article the very few weaknesses (if we can say that) that novak always had which is dealing with balls with no pace or spins and he has to generate it himeself ect but in the case of Sinner ( who we can say really reached his prime in 2024) the guy seems to have no weaknesses cause he has the qualities of novak but as well huge fire power and no difficulties whatsover the accelerate balls or run around his backhand...If novak ever play yannick in the final if he beats zverev, I would put my mortgage on Sinner taking this as he is an upgraded version of novak ( not to say prime novak was worse but more like 37yo nole cant defeat his style). Anyway would love to see the match up with an healthy novak to see what kind of tactic he would put in place to expose some "weaknesses" out of sinner's metronomical game.
Yeah Sinner's match against de Minaur was very impressive, and as you say, Sinner can hit it harder than Djokovic, handle lower balls easier, and seems to move just as well. I think Djokovic is better at changing directions compared to Sinner, and better at spot serving, and this is how he demolished Sinner at the tour finals in 2023; just kept him playing defense the whole time with amazing serves and then down-the-line groundstrokes. Would love them to meet in the final but it seems Djokovic's injury might hamper his chances against Zverev here.
Thanks for linking the Connors/Agassi USO QF from 1989 -- I don't know what I was thinking, but for some reason, I thought it'd be old-timey tennis. Goodness, how good are Connors' volleys? Many are hit from almost no-man's land with pinpoint accuracy -- he makes it look so easy. And I love Agassi's professionalism at such a young age.
I love watching those eras. Same talent with different tools. It's also cool to watch Agassi play Connors, and then fast forward 15 years and watch Agassi play Federer
The scheduling definitely didn't help Carlos. Against someone like Djokovic he did not have enough time to learn and adapt to the evening conditions (particularly with a bit of wind for the first half). The combination is just too deadly, it's the scheduling you would design for a setup. Also, while overall Djokovic was the better player yesterday, I feel this match was just a few line balls away from a potentially different outcome thanks to some heroics. You could see Alcaraz's disbelief after some of those lines - probably very tricky to handle! I understand that folks are disappointed, which is fair to some extent (particularly on the tactical plane), but at the same time I would caution about reading too much into this unique set of circumstances.
I agree that Carlitos should have probably leaned more onto the slice, he was getting burned too much in Djokovic's baseline gotcha game and the slices are not only a good defensive option (better value than a badly-armed backhand and more recovery time) but they also created forehand opportunities. At some point he played a Dimitrovesque down-the-line slice which proved he had variation options against a potential adaptation by Djokovic.
"it's the scheduling you would design for a setup" -- I'm not sure, since that setup would have been perpetrated by Alcaraz's team, who requested day matches for the early rounds knowing that a quarterfinal showdown with Novak would be at night. Perhaps they thought Machac or Lehecka would take out Novak!
Can’t wait to read your recap ! Looks long and well explained ! I have watched the match 3 times already and analyzed it ! Quite disappointed with Carlos ! I hope he fixes those problems cause they were plenty weaknesses exposed !
Barring Djokovic being hurt (physically) or flat (mentally), no one at the AO since 2011 has an asterisk-free win over ND except for Wawrinka (love the shoutout on his slice return adjustment in that 2014 QF).
Something ND did not use much at the time was serve-and-volley (especially in high-stakes points) and his most infamous one (that I can recall of) was the match point of this 2014 loss. Ironically, years later now and S&V is one of his go-to when down break-points/set-points. You already mentioned one in 4th set at 4-3 30-40.
Roddick also said in his pod that he sees ND "always goes for S&V when down break-point not up in a set". Maybe a bit of an exaggeration but maybe that 2014 loss did some inspiration for ND to work on this aspect of his game.
Agreed and good point; Nole has improved his serve AND his volley in the last 10 years that it's kind of shut down that option a little bit. Becker probably had a lot to do with that during their years together.
I had watched Alcaraz's matches going into this one (on replay) and thought that he showed concerning tendencies to miss in ordinary rallies - situations where you'd think it was a (comparatively) straightforward shot. So I had a little note in my head ahead of this one. And it seemed like he couldn't quite focus enough, and certainly didn't do the problem-solving on Djokovic's second serve. (Though there was a huge difference in the speed of that serve between the first set and the subsequent ones: he was hitting 132kph in the first, and then up to 180 on *second* later on.) Plus Alcaraz really didn't hit his spots on serve, while Djokovic did - Federer- or Sampras-style.
But I also thought Alcaraz didn't show the bastard mentality - "you're hurt, old man? Then I'm going to make you suffer. I'm going to make you regret walking onto the court with me." Because that's what has to be in your mind, isn't it?
I'm assuming all those unexpected RBA wins against Djokovic were also related to the "low and slow" thing you mention? I wonder why more players don't try something like this against him, although I suppose reducing net clearance is probably much easier said than done if that's not someone's regular game.
Great point about evolution! Tennis is boring. No variation anymore. No risk. It’s all calculated and planned. We need variety to make it interesting again. Agassi Sampras, Borg McEnroe, Fed Nadal, Martina Chris. Maybe evolution is going back to what was.
I actually think this era of lighter racquets has brought more variation than 10-15 years ago. More drop shots, more net rushing, etc, but there is less slice and less one-handers
In the post match interview Courier asked Djokovic about the increased aggression with his forehand that Djokovic showed during the match and compared it to AO 2023. I also believe I remember comments from Courier that he made during the 2024 United Cup and in one of the Tennis Channel podcasts in late 2023 where he complimented the what at the time seemed like a surging aggression on the Djokovic forehand. I remember those late 2023 matches in the ATP Finals and in the Davis Cup... Djokovic's forehand was stunning. Courier has noticed, and it brings me back to a question that I and other fans keep on holding about Novak: why not show big hitting aggression more consistently?
Matches like yesterday's and like the SF and F of the 2023 ATP Finals are why I think Djokovic is THE grandmaster in Tennis, he seems to play so within himself and at the same time looks as if he can adapt and change "faces" in so many ways... I don't know if any other player in history has quite shown such an astonishing "liquid ceiling."
Yeah I can't give you a great answer really. Early in Djokovic's career (06-08) he was very aggressive — big cuts on the forehand, moving forward often, etc. But as his movement and fitness got on a different level, I think he realised the percentages worked out better if he just stayed back and made the other guy miss, and if you have a lot of success doing that for years and years, I suspect it becomes some sort of default/instinctive mode for you.
I think the best counter-argument would be the AO semi last year against Jannik and the Wimbledon final last year: two examples of an aggressive Djoker missing way too much.
But it is amazing when you watch him have to adjust and he does it in real time.
As a tennis fan, I have seen this pattern before more than a few times now with Djokovic. He loses a set, needs encouragement, perhaps has an injury timeout; this may encourage laxity in his opponent, then goes on to win the match.
TD - I don’t know what you mean by free passes. Alcaraz earned his spot in the ranking, as has Djokovic.
I think Djokovic whips up a situation so he can find a solution to win. I think that is one phsych strategy he has developed over the years. Not his only path to winning. Maybe he only employs it on certain occasions, I don’t know. But I’ve seen this play before.
Great article. I especially liked this line: "Connors punched his way with wooden strokes duct-taped to a spacey graphite frame of the day".
It's interesting how the Novak injury colors so much of the discussion and interpretation of the match. It's hard to avoid, since we can't observe the counterfactual (suppose he didn't get injured at 4-4 of the first set?). Could an injury really help Djokovic's prospects even if it arguably contributed (or did it?) to him to losing the first set?
Consider Novak's US Open 2021 run. He lost the first set to Nishikori, Berretini, Brooksby, and the second set to Rune. In recent Wimbledon finals, he lost the first set to Berretini and Kyrgios. He seems to have a habit of adapting, refocusing, upping his game after a poor first set.
Does Alcaraz really lack a "killer instinct"? He seems an unlikely candidate for this deficit, based on having watched many of his destructive performances. Sympathy for his prey is not something I've observed (although he does like to *play* with his prey). Sympathy for a hurt Djokovic seems implausible.
Could the Djokovic injury have briefly distracted him, clouded his judgment, etc. (even with a team of advisors and the arch-sage Juan Carlo Ferrero virtually on the court with him)? One cannot rule it out, but is it likely?
Could the excellent problem-solver (evident in numerous big matches over the past 3 years, including 2023 Wimbledon), jazzy, ultra-versatile, high-IQ, determined Spanish bull be bamboozled into giving away three consecutive sets because Djokovic took an injury time-out at 5-4 in the first set (of which set he lost?). Anything is possible, but it strains credulity.
I believe that this over-emphasis on the injury is due more to the following. It's the eye test. When we see Alcaraz dismantling his opponents in the early rounds with ferocious shock-and-awe style destructions and we compare it to Novak's early round struggles, aging body, etc. we find it hard to believe that he could really defeat Alcaraz without some extra help.
An Alcaraz spectacular drop shot, lob-tweener, or 105mph forehand seems to "count" for more than a Djokovic clinical point construction ending in an opponent's unforced error. So when we see Djokovic defeating Alcaraz we may think: "this is not possible", "this is an aberration", "Alcaraz was confused", "Alcaraz had anxiety", etc.
To circle back to the counterfactual. I think it's quite possible that the injury drama was not actually decisive in this match. It seems simply that on hard courts, Djokovic has a small advantage (for now) over Alcaraz due to many of the elements outlined in this piece.
Great post. I think the injury and ensuing mental hurdle was mainly felt in the second set, and that's important because as Novak said in press, if he loses the second he might not even continue. By the third it was clear that Novak was ok and both were playing regular ball. The third and fourth was Novak just being too good, and Carlos was playing pretty damn good from the back, but he was playing into Novak's hands too much tactically.
“An Alcaraz spectacular drop shot, lob-tweener, or 105mph forehand seems to "count" for more than a Djokovic clinical point construction ending in an opponent's unforced error.”
I've been thinking about this since Cincinnati last year:
Carlos' game benefits from the limitations of natural surfaces. A choice to crush and rush or hit 130mph serves or blast forehands all day has been removed and he is forced to adapt his game. Clay neutralizes massive serving and huge groundstrokes; grass creates unsure footing and he can't tap into extreme athleticism for fear of losing balance and court position. On both surfaces, we saw him use slice and big looping shots, sometimes moonballs, as well drop shots...variety and off-pace to unsettle players like Sinner and Novak.
On hardcourt, he gets to use all the tools in his toolbox and that forces him and JCF to be smarter at selecting tactics. It also means choosing to put down some tools. The crush-and-rush approach to 2nd serves worked well against a weaker field. A positive feedback loop is created and to turn way from that in the middle of a tournament is really tough. The kick serve is almost useless on medium-fast hardcourt. It only works at Indian Wells. He desperately needs a better slice serve. But most of all, medium-fast hardcourt lures Carlos into being impatient. The surface seduces him into using his biggest shots, the faint memory of '21 and '22 still pulling him into an aggression that the best players can absorb and counterpunch.
TLDR: natural surfaces act as an editorial mechanism or pressure on Carlos that makes his game deadly. Hardcourt removes that limitation and he's left more to his own devices.
I agree with everything you highlighted here ! Carlo lacks that clear thinking during a match and notice when to change the tactic, and position, shot selection ectect...slices and deeper return postion/or chip returns woud have 100% would have brought him more points ! Alcaraz has all the weapons to hurt novak and today he played like you should not play against him ! He also should have had that killer mentality i the second set when novak's movements where clearly down!
He should have rethink of that 2023 RG match where novak had to play 3rd and 4th set against injured(cramped) carlos, barely mooving and just crsuhing the ball...look how novak stayed composed and didnt think abt carlos physical issues or anything! he played clinical where alcaraz yesterday played too kind !
Great analysis as always!
Especially liked how you highlighted the crush and rush as the crucial moment of the moment in the second set. I shook my head in disbelief at such poor decision-making on such an important moment and thought I was seeing Rune. Tweeted about it immediately. Other than that, a pretty normal Djokovic win in those conditions
I wanna quickly have a word on Sinner because to me he really is a 2.0 version of Djokovic...The guy consistancy, hard court dominance, court coverage, backhand, return of serve ect remind me of the great nole but in addition he has the fire power that nole doesnt have... Hugh, you have highlighted in this article the very few weaknesses (if we can say that) that novak always had which is dealing with balls with no pace or spins and he has to generate it himeself ect but in the case of Sinner ( who we can say really reached his prime in 2024) the guy seems to have no weaknesses cause he has the qualities of novak but as well huge fire power and no difficulties whatsover the accelerate balls or run around his backhand...If novak ever play yannick in the final if he beats zverev, I would put my mortgage on Sinner taking this as he is an upgraded version of novak ( not to say prime novak was worse but more like 37yo nole cant defeat his style). Anyway would love to see the match up with an healthy novak to see what kind of tactic he would put in place to expose some "weaknesses" out of sinner's metronomical game.
Yeah Sinner's match against de Minaur was very impressive, and as you say, Sinner can hit it harder than Djokovic, handle lower balls easier, and seems to move just as well. I think Djokovic is better at changing directions compared to Sinner, and better at spot serving, and this is how he demolished Sinner at the tour finals in 2023; just kept him playing defense the whole time with amazing serves and then down-the-line groundstrokes. Would love them to meet in the final but it seems Djokovic's injury might hamper his chances against Zverev here.
Thanks for linking the Connors/Agassi USO QF from 1989 -- I don't know what I was thinking, but for some reason, I thought it'd be old-timey tennis. Goodness, how good are Connors' volleys? Many are hit from almost no-man's land with pinpoint accuracy -- he makes it look so easy. And I love Agassi's professionalism at such a young age.
I love watching those eras. Same talent with different tools. It's also cool to watch Agassi play Connors, and then fast forward 15 years and watch Agassi play Federer
The scheduling definitely didn't help Carlos. Against someone like Djokovic he did not have enough time to learn and adapt to the evening conditions (particularly with a bit of wind for the first half). The combination is just too deadly, it's the scheduling you would design for a setup. Also, while overall Djokovic was the better player yesterday, I feel this match was just a few line balls away from a potentially different outcome thanks to some heroics. You could see Alcaraz's disbelief after some of those lines - probably very tricky to handle! I understand that folks are disappointed, which is fair to some extent (particularly on the tactical plane), but at the same time I would caution about reading too much into this unique set of circumstances.
I agree that Carlitos should have probably leaned more onto the slice, he was getting burned too much in Djokovic's baseline gotcha game and the slices are not only a good defensive option (better value than a badly-armed backhand and more recovery time) but they also created forehand opportunities. At some point he played a Dimitrovesque down-the-line slice which proved he had variation options against a potential adaptation by Djokovic.
"it's the scheduling you would design for a setup" -- I'm not sure, since that setup would have been perpetrated by Alcaraz's team, who requested day matches for the early rounds knowing that a quarterfinal showdown with Novak would be at night. Perhaps they thought Machac or Lehecka would take out Novak!
If it comes from his camp then it looks like a major blunder to me. I wonder what was the thought process behind that odd choice.
Alcaraz got caught in too many long rallies.
As always, fantastic article.
Can’t wait to read your recap ! Looks long and well explained ! I have watched the match 3 times already and analyzed it ! Quite disappointed with Carlos ! I hope he fixes those problems cause they were plenty weaknesses exposed !
Barring Djokovic being hurt (physically) or flat (mentally), no one at the AO since 2011 has an asterisk-free win over ND except for Wawrinka (love the shoutout on his slice return adjustment in that 2014 QF).
Something ND did not use much at the time was serve-and-volley (especially in high-stakes points) and his most infamous one (that I can recall of) was the match point of this 2014 loss. Ironically, years later now and S&V is one of his go-to when down break-points/set-points. You already mentioned one in 4th set at 4-3 30-40.
Roddick also said in his pod that he sees ND "always goes for S&V when down break-point not up in a set". Maybe a bit of an exaggeration but maybe that 2014 loss did some inspiration for ND to work on this aspect of his game.
Agreed and good point; Nole has improved his serve AND his volley in the last 10 years that it's kind of shut down that option a little bit. Becker probably had a lot to do with that during their years together.
I had watched Alcaraz's matches going into this one (on replay) and thought that he showed concerning tendencies to miss in ordinary rallies - situations where you'd think it was a (comparatively) straightforward shot. So I had a little note in my head ahead of this one. And it seemed like he couldn't quite focus enough, and certainly didn't do the problem-solving on Djokovic's second serve. (Though there was a huge difference in the speed of that serve between the first set and the subsequent ones: he was hitting 132kph in the first, and then up to 180 on *second* later on.) Plus Alcaraz really didn't hit his spots on serve, while Djokovic did - Federer- or Sampras-style.
But I also thought Alcaraz didn't show the bastard mentality - "you're hurt, old man? Then I'm going to make you suffer. I'm going to make you regret walking onto the court with me." Because that's what has to be in your mind, isn't it?
Anyhow, great analysis as always.
I'm assuming all those unexpected RBA wins against Djokovic were also related to the "low and slow" thing you mention? I wonder why more players don't try something like this against him, although I suppose reducing net clearance is probably much easier said than done if that's not someone's regular game.
yes RBA another who is medvedev-esque at this best.
Great point about evolution! Tennis is boring. No variation anymore. No risk. It’s all calculated and planned. We need variety to make it interesting again. Agassi Sampras, Borg McEnroe, Fed Nadal, Martina Chris. Maybe evolution is going back to what was.
I actually think this era of lighter racquets has brought more variation than 10-15 years ago. More drop shots, more net rushing, etc, but there is less slice and less one-handers
In the post match interview Courier asked Djokovic about the increased aggression with his forehand that Djokovic showed during the match and compared it to AO 2023. I also believe I remember comments from Courier that he made during the 2024 United Cup and in one of the Tennis Channel podcasts in late 2023 where he complimented the what at the time seemed like a surging aggression on the Djokovic forehand. I remember those late 2023 matches in the ATP Finals and in the Davis Cup... Djokovic's forehand was stunning. Courier has noticed, and it brings me back to a question that I and other fans keep on holding about Novak: why not show big hitting aggression more consistently?
Matches like yesterday's and like the SF and F of the 2023 ATP Finals are why I think Djokovic is THE grandmaster in Tennis, he seems to play so within himself and at the same time looks as if he can adapt and change "faces" in so many ways... I don't know if any other player in history has quite shown such an astonishing "liquid ceiling."
Yeah I can't give you a great answer really. Early in Djokovic's career (06-08) he was very aggressive — big cuts on the forehand, moving forward often, etc. But as his movement and fitness got on a different level, I think he realised the percentages worked out better if he just stayed back and made the other guy miss, and if you have a lot of success doing that for years and years, I suspect it becomes some sort of default/instinctive mode for you.
I think the best counter-argument would be the AO semi last year against Jannik and the Wimbledon final last year: two examples of an aggressive Djoker missing way too much.
But it is amazing when you watch him have to adjust and he does it in real time.
As a tennis fan, I have seen this pattern before more than a few times now with Djokovic. He loses a set, needs encouragement, perhaps has an injury timeout; this may encourage laxity in his opponent, then goes on to win the match.
TD - I don’t know what you mean by free passes. Alcaraz earned his spot in the ranking, as has Djokovic.
I think Djokovic whips up a situation so he can find a solution to win. I think that is one phsych strategy he has developed over the years. Not his only path to winning. Maybe he only employs it on certain occasions, I don’t know. But I’ve seen this play before.
Do you think he used it at the French Open last year against Cerundulo? Just curious.
Absolutely incredible post. Thank you!!
Great article. I especially liked this line: "Connors punched his way with wooden strokes duct-taped to a spacey graphite frame of the day".
It's interesting how the Novak injury colors so much of the discussion and interpretation of the match. It's hard to avoid, since we can't observe the counterfactual (suppose he didn't get injured at 4-4 of the first set?). Could an injury really help Djokovic's prospects even if it arguably contributed (or did it?) to him to losing the first set?
Consider Novak's US Open 2021 run. He lost the first set to Nishikori, Berretini, Brooksby, and the second set to Rune. In recent Wimbledon finals, he lost the first set to Berretini and Kyrgios. He seems to have a habit of adapting, refocusing, upping his game after a poor first set.
Does Alcaraz really lack a "killer instinct"? He seems an unlikely candidate for this deficit, based on having watched many of his destructive performances. Sympathy for his prey is not something I've observed (although he does like to *play* with his prey). Sympathy for a hurt Djokovic seems implausible.
Could the Djokovic injury have briefly distracted him, clouded his judgment, etc. (even with a team of advisors and the arch-sage Juan Carlo Ferrero virtually on the court with him)? One cannot rule it out, but is it likely?
Could the excellent problem-solver (evident in numerous big matches over the past 3 years, including 2023 Wimbledon), jazzy, ultra-versatile, high-IQ, determined Spanish bull be bamboozled into giving away three consecutive sets because Djokovic took an injury time-out at 5-4 in the first set (of which set he lost?). Anything is possible, but it strains credulity.
I believe that this over-emphasis on the injury is due more to the following. It's the eye test. When we see Alcaraz dismantling his opponents in the early rounds with ferocious shock-and-awe style destructions and we compare it to Novak's early round struggles, aging body, etc. we find it hard to believe that he could really defeat Alcaraz without some extra help.
An Alcaraz spectacular drop shot, lob-tweener, or 105mph forehand seems to "count" for more than a Djokovic clinical point construction ending in an opponent's unforced error. So when we see Djokovic defeating Alcaraz we may think: "this is not possible", "this is an aberration", "Alcaraz was confused", "Alcaraz had anxiety", etc.
To circle back to the counterfactual. I think it's quite possible that the injury drama was not actually decisive in this match. It seems simply that on hard courts, Djokovic has a small advantage (for now) over Alcaraz due to many of the elements outlined in this piece.
Great post. I think the injury and ensuing mental hurdle was mainly felt in the second set, and that's important because as Novak said in press, if he loses the second he might not even continue. By the third it was clear that Novak was ok and both were playing regular ball. The third and fourth was Novak just being too good, and Carlos was playing pretty damn good from the back, but he was playing into Novak's hands too much tactically.
“An Alcaraz spectacular drop shot, lob-tweener, or 105mph forehand seems to "count" for more than a Djokovic clinical point construction ending in an opponent's unforced error.”
So true! Great comment on a great article.
I've been thinking about this since Cincinnati last year:
Carlos' game benefits from the limitations of natural surfaces. A choice to crush and rush or hit 130mph serves or blast forehands all day has been removed and he is forced to adapt his game. Clay neutralizes massive serving and huge groundstrokes; grass creates unsure footing and he can't tap into extreme athleticism for fear of losing balance and court position. On both surfaces, we saw him use slice and big looping shots, sometimes moonballs, as well drop shots...variety and off-pace to unsettle players like Sinner and Novak.
On hardcourt, he gets to use all the tools in his toolbox and that forces him and JCF to be smarter at selecting tactics. It also means choosing to put down some tools. The crush-and-rush approach to 2nd serves worked well against a weaker field. A positive feedback loop is created and to turn way from that in the middle of a tournament is really tough. The kick serve is almost useless on medium-fast hardcourt. It only works at Indian Wells. He desperately needs a better slice serve. But most of all, medium-fast hardcourt lures Carlos into being impatient. The surface seduces him into using his biggest shots, the faint memory of '21 and '22 still pulling him into an aggression that the best players can absorb and counterpunch.
TLDR: natural surfaces act as an editorial mechanism or pressure on Carlos that makes his game deadly. Hardcourt removes that limitation and he's left more to his own devices.
I agree with everything you highlighted here ! Carlo lacks that clear thinking during a match and notice when to change the tactic, and position, shot selection ectect...slices and deeper return postion/or chip returns woud have 100% would have brought him more points ! Alcaraz has all the weapons to hurt novak and today he played like you should not play against him ! He also should have had that killer mentality i the second set when novak's movements where clearly down!
He should have rethink of that 2023 RG match where novak had to play 3rd and 4th set against injured(cramped) carlos, barely mooving and just crsuhing the ball...look how novak stayed composed and didnt think abt carlos physical issues or anything! he played clinical where alcaraz yesterday played too kind !