Always felt unlikely Medvedev could back up that semi final performance. His passing choices were perfect in that game and fairly poor in this, although credit to Djokovic for his instinct.
Djokovic is still clearly one of the fittest on tour. But I don't think hes the fittest, and he's perceptilbily beginning to fade over the last couple of years. Of course he's adapted with a slightly more aggressive gamestyle. But he's now massively helped by next gens poor techniques, and lack of ability to stay in tough rallies when it matters, extend points and really test his stamina. I'd only trust Medvedev and probably Rune to match him when they go locking down, Alcaraz can but his forehand sprays too often.
I'm looking forward to seeing him figure out a new and more aggressive style to stay at the top in the next couple of years. More serve and volley, more aggression, more slice i would think.
Actually, I was thinking about his loss two years ago and his win this year at the US Open. I remember that Djokovic started to serve and volley some when Medvedev stood back too far. Since Djokovic started to mix in S&V, the numbers have tilted in his favor. He also uses the slice wide serve much more effectively than Alcaraz. It is almost a guaranteed point for him every time. Nadal and Djokovic have figured out to exploit MDV forecourt weaknesses. I am sure Alcaraz and his team are chewing on stats for the next match against him.
I think Alcaraz had perfect tactics, it's that is execution on big points and moments was too aggressive I think. When he slowed the rallies down and was patient, het. got a lot more opportunities to attack with Medvedev closer to the baseline.
He may actually become fun to watch if that happens.
I have mad respect for his game, but it takes someone like you to break it down for his genius to become tangible. Until the Shelton match, he was always a bad watch for me.
Great analysis again!! I always felt that being outside the 6-6'3" range is tough. Medvedev gives up too much at his height. A "shorter" player will always be more agile. It's like Sugar Ray Leonard or the great Ali. They were fast and agile. Djokovic is starting to look like a classic player now. He can punch and counterpunch. That makes him so much more dangerous.
I think he is managing extremely well physically. I just don't know if 2028 is reasonable. Everyone thought Roger might play to 41, Tom Brady until he is 50 and now Djokovic until 41. I think he has a few more left in him but it will be tough for him to win 7 matches against younger foes.
The part you hit on the head is the need to clean up the strokes. Everyone is enamored with the huge spin and speed potential of the game. It was Robert Lansdorp whose philosophy was that tennis is about hitting a skidding ball near the line. He criticized Sampras for reversing his finishes. Then he realized that Sampras was solving a problem. Sampras's forehand is, as you noted, a stylized version of Lendl's. Classic and clean.
You are telling us that what is old is new. And he we are with Djokovic who has become a complete player. Alcaraz, too!
Again, thanks for the great analysis.
One question, Do you think it is Medvedev's lack of down the line backhands that hurt him? He just seems much less comfortable going down the line especially with low backhands.
I think the only one that I have seen dominate Djokovic in this regard is Wawrinka. He could hit down the line backhand and short cross court backhands at will. Even off of low balls, Wawrinka could make Djokovic pay.
Wawrinka won't be playing in 2028. But his backhand, in my eyes, was the only one that could stand up to the modern two hander and come out on top.
It might be time for all the one handers to clean up their strokes, too!
I started to think your forehand does not have lag and you are trying to find reasons that it is okay not to have one. Djokovic clearly has massive wrist lag. Only reason you think he does not is his strong semi-western, that allows him to execute lag without too much visible wrist extension.
I'm not going to say for sure. I'm not measuring wrist lag. And partly my language isn't always clear between lag and "flipping" the racquet. Djokovic has much less flipping mechanics and less lag (to me) compared to someone like Nadal, Sinner, Sock.
Interesting debate here. Maybe it is the fact that there is a more gravity induced motion rather than an engineered motion. Djokovic and Nadal both have adaptations relative to Agassi and Sampras. Sampras seems to be the most classic of the four forehands. All these shots are with lots of time and hit very loosely. My guess is that they would change on returns or when rushed. Maybe part of it is the extent to which segments can be shortened or simplified as needed. This can happen during the drop and swing part. With the "modern" forehand all of the extra motion cannot be taken out. What we end up with is a less flexible shot that is less adaptable to changing conditions. I'd be curious to see if you would but Coco Gauff in that camp as well. I keep thinking of Carlos Rodriguez and what he did with Henin's forehand. In any case, I look forward to reading more about your views on the forehand.
On Djokovic’s forehand, what are your thoughts on the part of his take back of “closed strings where the racquet head gets aligned perfectly with the back fence before accelerating”? While the Ferris wheel take back is clearly there, with Federer or Nadal’s swing the racquet face seems more pointed towards the side fence before dropping down to accelerate. Is there a technical importance on this part or is it just a stylistic difference?
The difference is largely in grip. If you grip the racquet with an eastern forehand (Federer) and an extreme semi-western forehand (Djokovic) with an extended wrist, the only thing that changes is the string orientation. I wrote about it here:
I wonder about this beyond the fact that it looks longer and more complicated. My sense is that Djokovic's forehand is very good but that he is vulnerable when running wide to his forehand. He seems to be hitting it harder from the corner lately. It might be a move to try and diminish the need to run to his forehand side by making sure that he "covers" this weakness.
Always felt unlikely Medvedev could back up that semi final performance. His passing choices were perfect in that game and fairly poor in this, although credit to Djokovic for his instinct.
Djokovic is still clearly one of the fittest on tour. But I don't think hes the fittest, and he's perceptilbily beginning to fade over the last couple of years. Of course he's adapted with a slightly more aggressive gamestyle. But he's now massively helped by next gens poor techniques, and lack of ability to stay in tough rallies when it matters, extend points and really test his stamina. I'd only trust Medvedev and probably Rune to match him when they go locking down, Alcaraz can but his forehand sprays too often.
I'm looking forward to seeing him figure out a new and more aggressive style to stay at the top in the next couple of years. More serve and volley, more aggression, more slice i would think.
Actually, I was thinking about his loss two years ago and his win this year at the US Open. I remember that Djokovic started to serve and volley some when Medvedev stood back too far. Since Djokovic started to mix in S&V, the numbers have tilted in his favor. He also uses the slice wide serve much more effectively than Alcaraz. It is almost a guaranteed point for him every time. Nadal and Djokovic have figured out to exploit MDV forecourt weaknesses. I am sure Alcaraz and his team are chewing on stats for the next match against him.
I think Alcaraz had perfect tactics, it's that is execution on big points and moments was too aggressive I think. When he slowed the rallies down and was patient, het. got a lot more opportunities to attack with Medvedev closer to the baseline.
He may actually become fun to watch if that happens.
I have mad respect for his game, but it takes someone like you to break it down for his genius to become tangible. Until the Shelton match, he was always a bad watch for me.
Great analysis again!! I always felt that being outside the 6-6'3" range is tough. Medvedev gives up too much at his height. A "shorter" player will always be more agile. It's like Sugar Ray Leonard or the great Ali. They were fast and agile. Djokovic is starting to look like a classic player now. He can punch and counterpunch. That makes him so much more dangerous.
I think he is managing extremely well physically. I just don't know if 2028 is reasonable. Everyone thought Roger might play to 41, Tom Brady until he is 50 and now Djokovic until 41. I think he has a few more left in him but it will be tough for him to win 7 matches against younger foes.
The part you hit on the head is the need to clean up the strokes. Everyone is enamored with the huge spin and speed potential of the game. It was Robert Lansdorp whose philosophy was that tennis is about hitting a skidding ball near the line. He criticized Sampras for reversing his finishes. Then he realized that Sampras was solving a problem. Sampras's forehand is, as you noted, a stylized version of Lendl's. Classic and clean.
You are telling us that what is old is new. And he we are with Djokovic who has become a complete player. Alcaraz, too!
Again, thanks for the great analysis.
One question, Do you think it is Medvedev's lack of down the line backhands that hurt him? He just seems much less comfortable going down the line especially with low backhands.
I think the only one that I have seen dominate Djokovic in this regard is Wawrinka. He could hit down the line backhand and short cross court backhands at will. Even off of low balls, Wawrinka could make Djokovic pay.
Wawrinka won't be playing in 2028. But his backhand, in my eyes, was the only one that could stand up to the modern two hander and come out on top.
It might be time for all the one handers to clean up their strokes, too!
I started to think your forehand does not have lag and you are trying to find reasons that it is okay not to have one. Djokovic clearly has massive wrist lag. Only reason you think he does not is his strong semi-western, that allows him to execute lag without too much visible wrist extension.
I'm not going to say for sure. I'm not measuring wrist lag. And partly my language isn't always clear between lag and "flipping" the racquet. Djokovic has much less flipping mechanics and less lag (to me) compared to someone like Nadal, Sinner, Sock.
Sampras - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHJDjoRgePs&t=12s
Agassi - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EB2vGIc5oPQ
Nadal - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B2IduNtpE5I
Djokovic - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nw_2I2ksX3U&t=69s
I'm writing a piece on this soon. Might make it clearer.
Interesting debate here. Maybe it is the fact that there is a more gravity induced motion rather than an engineered motion. Djokovic and Nadal both have adaptations relative to Agassi and Sampras. Sampras seems to be the most classic of the four forehands. All these shots are with lots of time and hit very loosely. My guess is that they would change on returns or when rushed. Maybe part of it is the extent to which segments can be shortened or simplified as needed. This can happen during the drop and swing part. With the "modern" forehand all of the extra motion cannot be taken out. What we end up with is a less flexible shot that is less adaptable to changing conditions. I'd be curious to see if you would but Coco Gauff in that camp as well. I keep thinking of Carlos Rodriguez and what he did with Henin's forehand. In any case, I look forward to reading more about your views on the forehand.
Sampras and Agassi had less lag on the forehand than Fed/Nadal.
I think Sock and Sinner get more than Djokovic, but again that is just an eye test for me.
Very much look forward to reading that piece!
On Djokovic’s forehand, what are your thoughts on the part of his take back of “closed strings where the racquet head gets aligned perfectly with the back fence before accelerating”? While the Ferris wheel take back is clearly there, with Federer or Nadal’s swing the racquet face seems more pointed towards the side fence before dropping down to accelerate. Is there a technical importance on this part or is it just a stylistic difference?
The difference is largely in grip. If you grip the racquet with an eastern forehand (Federer) and an extreme semi-western forehand (Djokovic) with an extended wrist, the only thing that changes is the string orientation. I wrote about it here:
https://hughclarke.substack.com/p/zverev-x-alcaraz-madrid-round-16
I would argue Nadal's best years (2010-2013) he had more wrist extension and more of a Djokovic-esque closed racquet face.
I wonder about this beyond the fact that it looks longer and more complicated. My sense is that Djokovic's forehand is very good but that he is vulnerable when running wide to his forehand. He seems to be hitting it harder from the corner lately. It might be a move to try and diminish the need to run to his forehand side by making sure that he "covers" this weakness.