The 1st round match of the tournament to me is definitely Rublev vs Fonseca. Rublev per the oddsmakers is the slight favorite, but this one has upset written all over it. I, like Hugh, do not bet. I will readily admit the oddsmakers are a way more savvy bunch than me, but it is a very intriguing matchup. Fonseca to me is a top 5 contender at RG this year.
It's one of the few things on my bucket list (I've been to Wimbledon, US Open, and Roland Garros). Unfortunately I'm an American teacher, so it's not feasible until I'm done with teaching
I haven't done the french, and I might be biased, but the AO in terms of cost, ease of transport, access to outer courts etc. is better than Wimbledon and the US.
Juan Carlos Ferrero was clear that they had to exploit the strengths of his pupil. And that meant generating more speed with his forehand. That is why they worked with several Babolat rackets with different weights in the neck of the racket until they found the most suitable one.
Thanks! BTW, I'm checking the Spanish version of the article as well and the claim "It is being noticed a lot these days in the rest" by the assistant coach is poorly translated, he's just saying that he's feeling it on the returns, in case anyone here is wondering (false friend, "resto" is Spanish for "return")
As good as Fonseca is, and as much as I think he could make a deep run if he had the right opponents (in the way the US open opened up last year), Rublev has made the 3rd round or better in 11(!) straight hard court grand slams. The last time Rublev didn’t make a 3rd round in a hard court GS was 2019 when he was 21. I think his consistency will be too much for Fonseca this year.
I think the tradeoff is that his new takeback means he can stay on the baseline and feel less rushed against attacking/fast balls into his backhand, but timing may suffer. AO is typically a lower bouncing faster hardcourt, so I think this tournament suits that stroke to an extent. Additionally, I like his draw - Draper is apparently nursing a hip injury, Djoker’s level/status is still a question mark, and Zverev as a semifinal opponent would be approached with lessons learned from last year
Curious if you think there's a correlation between underdeveloped deficiencies in a player's game and pursuing the high profile junior circuit route to the pro game?
For example, are Alcaraz and Sinner more well rounded because, in part, they didn't really spend much time playing junior level tournaments, instead opting for development/training and early ITF/Challenger-level pro tournaments? Experiences that would surely expose those weaknesses.
Is there a similar path of development for players who go the US college route? Do they get more time and space to address their whole game, rather than maximizing strengths in order to get to the ATP tour as fast as possible?
I'm not so sure. I think playing juniors certainly allows a more passive/counterpuncher style to excel at, whereas you kind of have to have firepower with either groundies or serves to have immediate success at the pro level, or a Learner Tien-level of control and game IQ. I think the college route just allows players who aren't ready to get that player identity sorted, as well as develop physically, and maybe iron out a weak shot. Probably the serve is the one shot that you sometimes see good juniors emerge on tour without having at a tour level. A lot of guys develop the serve while on tour: Alcaraz, Sinner, Shang, as recent examples
Last year organizers decided that Jannik v Djokovic was not a prime time match and scheduled it during the day, opting for Zverev vs Medvedev as a night match, which to be honest was a correct pick in the end. With Novak being 7th seed this year, I expect atleast a couple or more of his matches to be scheduled during the day as well.
It all depends on how the draw plays out but I am wondering on how this is going to affect his game overall.
I think Novak is the king of night AO conditions (obviously: 9 titles in a night final tells you that). The ball is a little heavier and slower at night and the ball stays lower, so it tipped the odds in his favour against a Fedal or big hitter. Now that he is older and playing his own brand of aggressive tennis i think he finds some benefit from the day session with his better serve and forehand aggression, but certainly it's harder on the body to play a 5-set match in 30-odd degree heat compared to at night
I really appreciate your tennis knowledge and insights but I am also extremely appalled and disappointed in your open and active support for sports betting. It is a huge problem that affects huge amount of people. Not least the players who receive horrible amount of online abuse from bettors. I sincerely hope you won't support sports betting in any way in the future.
Hi TP, I agree the player abuse and addictions are serious issues that deserve attention and action, but in response to your specific points, shouldn't the focus be on implementing more responsible gambling practices and regulations, rather than dismissing the industry entirely? Sports betting and gambling has existed for centuries, and providing a legal and regulated industry for it is probably better than the alternative where it is driven underground with no protections (e.g., age restrictions, self-exclusion programs, and resources for those with gambling addictions, plus a legal market helps to detect match-fixing). For player abuse specifically, the root cause isn't really the gambling but a lack of accountability on behalf of social media companies. It is not my intention to promote irresponsible gambling, but I am in favour for a transparent and well-regulated industry that helps protect all parties. For example, I would be in support of a measure to ban sports betting advertising at sporting events and during televised sports events where children are exposed to it. As mentioned, I do not gamble anymore, but I know some readers of mine do, and it is a responsible recreation for some that enhances their sporting experience.
The 1st round match of the tournament to me is definitely Rublev vs Fonseca. Rublev per the oddsmakers is the slight favorite, but this one has upset written all over it. I, like Hugh, do not bet. I will readily admit the oddsmakers are a way more savvy bunch than me, but it is a very intriguing matchup. Fonseca to me is a top 5 contender at RG this year.
"little-known and softly spoken Canberran Nick Kyrgios" 😁
One of these days, I'm going to make it to Melbourne.
It's one of the few things on my bucket list (I've been to Wimbledon, US Open, and Roland Garros). Unfortunately I'm an American teacher, so it's not feasible until I'm done with teaching
I haven't done the french, and I might be biased, but the AO in terms of cost, ease of transport, access to outer courts etc. is better than Wimbledon and the US.
I've been to Wimbledon...in '91. But that's it.
My favorite tennis is clay court, but like you say, everything I hear is that the AO is the most fan oriented.
ICYMI: Alcaraz will reportedly play with +5 grams of lead on the tip, experimenting with service motion as well https://www.mundodeportivo.com/tenis/open-australia/20250111/1002384314/alcaraz-cambios-open-australia-ganas-probarlos-competicion.html
Not at the tip, or the 12 o'clock spot. It's in the throat, to preserve current balance.
Ah, you might be right, the article just says "at the head" which is more vague than a specific location. Do you have alternative sources / photos?
https://www.marca.com/en/tennis/2025/01/02/6776774d268e3efd6e8b45a8.html
Juan Carlos Ferrero was clear that they had to exploit the strengths of his pupil. And that meant generating more speed with his forehand. That is why they worked with several Babolat rackets with different weights in the neck of the racket until they found the most suitable one.
Thanks! BTW, I'm checking the Spanish version of the article as well and the claim "It is being noticed a lot these days in the rest" by the assistant coach is poorly translated, he's just saying that he's feeling it on the returns, in case anyone here is wondering (false friend, "resto" is Spanish for "return")
Fantastic stuff Hugh!
Just so delighted to read the phrase 'pure sprezzatura'.
As good as Fonseca is, and as much as I think he could make a deep run if he had the right opponents (in the way the US open opened up last year), Rublev has made the 3rd round or better in 11(!) straight hard court grand slams. The last time Rublev didn’t make a 3rd round in a hard court GS was 2019 when he was 21. I think his consistency will be too much for Fonseca this year.
Yeah very possible. I mean, he is the favourite. I'm just hoping both guys play well and we get to see where Fonseca's level is at against top players
LMAO at the disclaimer in the picks and the McMahon Meme
I'm glad that Sinner and Alcaraz are on opposite sides of the draw for once, and that Medvedev's not in Sinner's quarter.
I'm feeling the first ever Alcaraz/Sinner final
Even though it's looking like Alcaraz will use that lower takeback?
I think the tradeoff is that his new takeback means he can stay on the baseline and feel less rushed against attacking/fast balls into his backhand, but timing may suffer. AO is typically a lower bouncing faster hardcourt, so I think this tournament suits that stroke to an extent. Additionally, I like his draw - Draper is apparently nursing a hip injury, Djoker’s level/status is still a question mark, and Zverev as a semifinal opponent would be approached with lessons learned from last year
Listened the podcast referenced above.
Curious if you think there's a correlation between underdeveloped deficiencies in a player's game and pursuing the high profile junior circuit route to the pro game?
For example, are Alcaraz and Sinner more well rounded because, in part, they didn't really spend much time playing junior level tournaments, instead opting for development/training and early ITF/Challenger-level pro tournaments? Experiences that would surely expose those weaknesses.
Is there a similar path of development for players who go the US college route? Do they get more time and space to address their whole game, rather than maximizing strengths in order to get to the ATP tour as fast as possible?
I'm not so sure. I think playing juniors certainly allows a more passive/counterpuncher style to excel at, whereas you kind of have to have firepower with either groundies or serves to have immediate success at the pro level, or a Learner Tien-level of control and game IQ. I think the college route just allows players who aren't ready to get that player identity sorted, as well as develop physically, and maybe iron out a weak shot. Probably the serve is the one shot that you sometimes see good juniors emerge on tour without having at a tour level. A lot of guys develop the serve while on tour: Alcaraz, Sinner, Shang, as recent examples
"For the degens" had me cracking up
Last year organizers decided that Jannik v Djokovic was not a prime time match and scheduled it during the day, opting for Zverev vs Medvedev as a night match, which to be honest was a correct pick in the end. With Novak being 7th seed this year, I expect atleast a couple or more of his matches to be scheduled during the day as well.
It all depends on how the draw plays out but I am wondering on how this is going to affect his game overall.
I think Novak is the king of night AO conditions (obviously: 9 titles in a night final tells you that). The ball is a little heavier and slower at night and the ball stays lower, so it tipped the odds in his favour against a Fedal or big hitter. Now that he is older and playing his own brand of aggressive tennis i think he finds some benefit from the day session with his better serve and forehand aggression, but certainly it's harder on the body to play a 5-set match in 30-odd degree heat compared to at night
We'll see. He has a lot of pull with that tournament and if he/they think it's his last, I wouldn't be surprised to see him get time slots he prefers.
Great insights.
Brilliant mate. Fonseca >
I really appreciate your tennis knowledge and insights but I am also extremely appalled and disappointed in your open and active support for sports betting. It is a huge problem that affects huge amount of people. Not least the players who receive horrible amount of online abuse from bettors. I sincerely hope you won't support sports betting in any way in the future.
Hi TP, I agree the player abuse and addictions are serious issues that deserve attention and action, but in response to your specific points, shouldn't the focus be on implementing more responsible gambling practices and regulations, rather than dismissing the industry entirely? Sports betting and gambling has existed for centuries, and providing a legal and regulated industry for it is probably better than the alternative where it is driven underground with no protections (e.g., age restrictions, self-exclusion programs, and resources for those with gambling addictions, plus a legal market helps to detect match-fixing). For player abuse specifically, the root cause isn't really the gambling but a lack of accountability on behalf of social media companies. It is not my intention to promote irresponsible gambling, but I am in favour for a transparent and well-regulated industry that helps protect all parties. For example, I would be in support of a measure to ban sports betting advertising at sporting events and during televised sports events where children are exposed to it. As mentioned, I do not gamble anymore, but I know some readers of mine do, and it is a responsible recreation for some that enhances their sporting experience.
Very mature response.
wanna bet he keeps doing it and doesn’t change because of this comment?
Got to say, the Aussie commentators on the world feed are very, very good.