Australian Open Draw Preview

conditions — quarters — picks

I forgot to add that I went on the We Said, They Said podcast again with Mike and Helen to discuss tennis and the 2025 season. Had a blast and thanks again Mike and Helen! Listen here

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The first grand slam of the year gets underway on Sunday with the first round matches played over three days.

Australian grapefruit

Conditions

In the last few years the Australian Open has typically been categorised as a medium-fast hard court. A handy chart from Ana Ivanovic’s number one admirer, Nishikori Pro Tennis Bettor, shows the aces and hold percentages Down Under to be middling compared to other tour events:

Source

2025 appears to be playing similar to recent editions.

After 112 matches in 2025: Service holds 79% - First Serve Pts Won 72% - Aces/Game 0.52 - Games/Set 9.83 - TBs/Set 0.18.¹

— ticker.tennisform.com

I think it’s important to remember that a player’s perceptions of conditions can be affected by the balls, winds, temperatures, and the opponent’s style of play. Hot weather and new balls makes conditions faster and bouncier. Cooler, evening conditions makes conditions slower with less bounce, and older balls that tend to fluff up also produce more drag and slow down. Playing against a flat hitter who’s ball is hit with a lower trajectory over the net means that the ball bounces at a gentler angle off the court, affecting a player’s perception of court speed. Playing against a heavy topspin player means that the ball is often hit higher over the net and therefore approaches the court at a steeper angle, producing a steeper bounce, and thus making conditions feel slower.

Anyway, some player quotes from 2024/2025:

“The conditions are fast, and I like that! It suits my game. I’ve acclimated well, even with the heat, including two days of 38-39 degrees.”

— Ugo Humbert, 2025

"This court plays really slow at night and the kick serve doesn't really work as well."

— Nick Kyrgios, 2024

“Hot afternoons here are also often windy afternoons, and that creates difficult situations for both players. It changes things a lot for sure. There’s one side where you feel like you can dictate, you have the wind at your back. You get a lot of extra power on the ball. It’s just easier to be offensive and hurt the person. Then on the other side it’s so much harder to attack. You feel like it’s so easy for the other person to hurt you off your shots.”

— Taylor Fritz, 2024

The weather for the first week looks to be mild temperatures with a bit of rain around:

The Dunlop ball — in my experience — gets slow and fluffy after a few games, so it will be interesting (especially in light of Zverev’s and Medvedev’s recent assessments) of how the power hitters fare compared to the more diminutive strikers. I always love a Medvedev take:

“As soon as you play some shots with them, they go very big, much too fluffy. They become like a grapefruit”

A quarter by quarter take of the men’s draw..

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First Quarter

Quarterfinal Prediction: Sinner def. de Minaur

Early Upsets: Bublik def. Cerundolo; Griekspoor def. Hurkacz

Quality Qualifier: Martin Landaluce won the 2022 US Open Boys Slam and has been compiling impressive results at the challenger level recently.

Dark Horses: Berrettini or Norrie would be obvious choices, but someone else who is sneaky tough up here is Miomir Kecmanovic. The Serb made a semifinal run in Adelaide and has made the R16 twice in Australia. From the bottom section look out for Gabriel Diallo. The 6’8’’ Canadian is a University of Kentucky Alumn and can back up the serve with very competent groundies and movement.

Round 1 Match: Norrie vs Berrettini. A battle of two former top 10 players looking to regain their ranking. The lefty counterpuncher versus the right-handed Italian hammer should make this an interesting tactical match as well.

Almost went with… None. I am confident that Sinner and de Minaur make their way to a quarterfinal clash here. Both in form and with good draws.

Toughest Draw? Rune. Opens against Zhang, and then faces the winner of Berrettini or Norrie, followed by a projected third round against Hurkacz. I predicted big things for the Dane this year, but his opening match against Lehecka in Brisbane was more of the same (no discipline or strategy).

Getting ahead of myself: I would love a Rune v Sinner fourth-round bust up. Their H2H is locked at 2-2 and they played a phenomenal match in Monte Carlo last year (they’ve played two phenomenal matches at the Country Club — in 2023 and 2024). The young Dane’s ceiling is high and he is capable of pushing the top brass to the edge at his best.

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Second Quarter

Quarterfinal Prediction: Fritz def. Medvedev

Early Upsets: Fonseca def. Rublev; Moutet def. Popyrin; Nakashima def. Shelton; Monfils def GMP; Arnaldi def. Musetti — the most interesting section in terms of quality round one matches against seeds.

Quality Qualifier: Fonseca. Fonseca. Fonseca.

Dark Horses: Matteo Arnaldi is sneaky good and I wouldn’t be surprised if he took down his in-form compatriot in the first round here and went on a run. From the bottom half: c’mon, I have to take Fonseca here. He’s all I’ve been talking about recently.

Round 1 Match: Rublev v Fonseca. The hype around the young Brazilian is huge now after winning the Nextgen finals, the Canberra challenger (without dropping a set or reaching a tiebreaker), and destroying his opponents in qualifying (without dropping a set or reaching a tiebreaker). A great top 10 test awaits in Rublev. The clear first round match of the tournament.

Almost went with…Frances Tiafoe. Big Foe has struggled for consistency outside of New York, but he’s done well here in the past, reaching the quarterfinals back in 2019. A readout of his AO losses since 2017 — Zverev, del Potro, Nadal, Medvedev, Djokovic, Fritz, Khachanov, and Machac — suggests he hasn’t exactly fumbled his chances, and even last year’s straight-sets defeat to Machac will age well, I think.

Toughest Draw? Musetti. Arnaldi, Shapovalov, and RBA are all very tough players to get through for the opening couple of rounds, and then Shelton or Nakashima likely awaits.

Getting ahead of myself: GMP against Fritz in the third round would be an interesting watch, given that Fritz’s break percentage isn’t all that hot for a top-four seed (he’s around 20%, whereas Sinner, Alcaraz, Medvedev, and Djokovic are in the ~28-30% range).

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Third Quarter

Quarterfinal Prediction: Alcaraz def. Djokovic

Early Upsets: Don’t love much in terms of first round upsets of seeds (maybe Li Tu over Lehecka), but if this particular second round match were to materialise, I would pick Bonzi to def. Dimitrov.

Quality Qualifier: Lukas Klein nearly took out Zverev in a five-set thriller last year in Melbourne.

Dark Horses: Reilly Opelka beat Djokovic last week in Brisbane and at nearly seven feet he is capable of taking the racquet out of anyone’s hand. From the bottom half look out for Nuno Borges, who has a ridiculous deciding set record in BO3 and reached the round of 16 here last year, upsetting Grigor Dimitrov along the way.

Round 1 Match: Fognini vs Dimitrov. The Italian veteran is capable of hanging with anyone if mentally and physically engaged. Should be some fun rallies in this one.

Almost went with…Tomas Machac. The Czech is ninth in Tennis Abstract’s elo ratings and is one of the most explosive baseliners on tour right now. The movement and backhand are as good as anybody’s.

Toughest Draw? Dimitrov. Opens against pure sprezzatura in Fabio Fognini, then faces either former top 10 Belgian in Goffin, or Challenger-hardened Bonzi. A likely third round against Brisbane champ Lehecka. Then Novak.

Getting ahead of myself: I have a mouth-watering Machac v Djokovic third-round battle penciled in up top. The Czech can slide with the best of them and possesses a sublime two-handed backhand. From the bottom section, a projected Draper vs Alcaraz fourth round would get everyone excited.

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Fourth Quarter

Quarterfinal Prediction: Zverev def. FAA

Early Upsets: Cazaux def. Baez; RCB def. Tabilo

Quality Qualifier: Nikoloz Basilashvili is a former top-20 player who strolled through Q’s. Can hit the ball LARGE.

Dark Horses: Junchen Shang is a very talented young lefty ball-striker. Physically he is still prone to breaking down, but he can play. From the bottom look out for little-known and softly spoken Canberran Nick Kyrgios.

Round 1 Match: Shang v Fokina will be an outer-court delight. A small intimate crowd of fans who probably have never heard of either of these players will enjoy stumbling upon this match on court 7 with an Aperol spritz, or something.

Almost went with…Casper Ruud. He’s been solid, but I think there are too many genuinely dangerous hard-courters in his section who will catch fire and take him out. Now he will probably do the most Casper thing ever and make a semi, or something. Shoutout also to Humbert, who I think will reach the Zverev match. Feel like we are in peak Humbert times.

Toughest Draw? Ruud. Besides his first round (and Munar had a good run in Hong Kong, mind you) there’s many dangerous hitters in his section — Struff, FAA, and Mensik can serve you off the court, and Shang, ADF, and Basil have baseline firepower to rush the Norwegian.

Getting ahead of myself: Zverev vs Kyrgios in the third round would be a treat if the Australian can get his body right.

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For the degens

Disclaimer: please understand that I am an idiot and often get picks wrong. I do not personally bet anymore, but like to make picks during slams as there’s just so much action. LARGE underdogs only.

Round 1

Virtanen $6 to defeat Fils

Hanfmann $4 to defeat Giron

Moutet $3.75 to defeat Popyrin

TSW $3.20 to defeat Marozsan

Habib $3.20 to defeat Bu

Dzumhur $4 to defeat Vukic

Dougaz $5 to defeat Nishioka

Basilashvili $5 to defeat Mensik

I’ll be on the grounds from Tuesday to Saturday soaking up the first week action.

See you in the comments, and maybe at the Open if you are attending. HC

1. (qualifying matches tend to produce slightly weaker hold/ace percentages because the best players (i.e., main draw players) tend to hit more aces and hold more compared to Q’s players.