Regarding the high forehand UE rate from Alcaraz, I feel that he was misplaying baseline exchanges for most of the first two sets. It's natural to have a rough patch with a shot ocasionally, but he did not need to gamble so much against a player like Struff whose shot quality degrades with movement to a larger extent than your average late-stage clay court tournament opponent. He would have benefited from greater patience on the rallies, not just through improving the win rate from the baseline but also by letting him hit more balls and gain more feeling on the ball. By the third set he had finally realized that he would easily win the baseline trades as long as he did not miss a winner / decissive shot attempt, as he had done earlier in the match.
Struff did well on the tactical side considering his toolbox, he just struggled a bit with landing enough first serves (particularly in critical games in the first and third sets) and had a few inconvenient setbacks with the volley (even though overall he did well on the net).
Thanks Hugh, great piece as always! Two questions in one:
1. I guess this agressive return strategy and rush forward tactic on serve only applies to those who know they can't hold the baseline against Carlitos but want to rush him anyway, right? So Sinner, Djokovic (who both adopted mixed return strategy against him, but I would say they were neither deep nor agressive - sinner rushing on second serves tho) and, I believe Rune because of his incredible fundamentals, because their return are so good they can just play it deep and then apply pressure during rally ?
2. Jan Lennard Struff : purple patch, right? His technique reminds me of Berrettini's, which is great on the forehand side - he hammers it too and can abbreviate it well as we saw - , but not that much on the backhand side, and I can't really see it become a consistent/reliable shot. Anyway, hope a can be a good dark horse for the french, even though conditions will favor him less
1. I think this return strategy can certainly be mixed in to keep the server guessing. Even Sinner, Rune, Djokovic, et al., who can hold the baseline could use this effectively if they committed to it. I think we've seen Tiafoe/Kyrgios use this well in the past and it's a really underrated strategy against great returners/baseliners. But yeah if you're Rune/Sinner/Djokovic I think for the most part you want to maximize returns made and try wear down Alcaraz, as these guys have the game to outlast/endure Alcaraz from the baseline, unlike Struff (and most of the tour, for that matter).
2. I mean, yes and no. He's been around a long time and has a very healthy ~30% win-rate against the top-10. He's a very dangerous player and he got hot for sure this week in conditions that suited his game and with a pretty nice draw. While I can't see him winning the french, with all his match wins and confidence so far, none of the top guys will want to see him in their section of the draw for the first week!
I think two additional statistics are very telling:
1. Struff's first serve percentage was really low, 51% match and was below 40% for some time. If he serves a little better, the match would be even closer. I wonder if it's just a bad (nervous) day for him in terms of serving, or was Carlos's presense playing a role.
2. Alcaraz's first serve win percentage was significantly lower than usual. 67% match and was down to around 50% early on. It shows the effectiveness of Struff's returning strategy and performance.
I would indeed be very curious to see how the players you named (Matteo, Nick, etc.) play Carlos.
Regarding the high forehand UE rate from Alcaraz, I feel that he was misplaying baseline exchanges for most of the first two sets. It's natural to have a rough patch with a shot ocasionally, but he did not need to gamble so much against a player like Struff whose shot quality degrades with movement to a larger extent than your average late-stage clay court tournament opponent. He would have benefited from greater patience on the rallies, not just through improving the win rate from the baseline but also by letting him hit more balls and gain more feeling on the ball. By the third set he had finally realized that he would easily win the baseline trades as long as he did not miss a winner / decissive shot attempt, as he had done earlier in the match.
Struff did well on the tactical side considering his toolbox, he just struggled a bit with landing enough first serves (particularly in critical games in the first and third sets) and had a few inconvenient setbacks with the volley (even though overall he did well on the net).
Thanks Hugh, great piece as always! Two questions in one:
1. I guess this agressive return strategy and rush forward tactic on serve only applies to those who know they can't hold the baseline against Carlitos but want to rush him anyway, right? So Sinner, Djokovic (who both adopted mixed return strategy against him, but I would say they were neither deep nor agressive - sinner rushing on second serves tho) and, I believe Rune because of his incredible fundamentals, because their return are so good they can just play it deep and then apply pressure during rally ?
2. Jan Lennard Struff : purple patch, right? His technique reminds me of Berrettini's, which is great on the forehand side - he hammers it too and can abbreviate it well as we saw - , but not that much on the backhand side, and I can't really see it become a consistent/reliable shot. Anyway, hope a can be a good dark horse for the french, even though conditions will favor him less
1. I think this return strategy can certainly be mixed in to keep the server guessing. Even Sinner, Rune, Djokovic, et al., who can hold the baseline could use this effectively if they committed to it. I think we've seen Tiafoe/Kyrgios use this well in the past and it's a really underrated strategy against great returners/baseliners. But yeah if you're Rune/Sinner/Djokovic I think for the most part you want to maximize returns made and try wear down Alcaraz, as these guys have the game to outlast/endure Alcaraz from the baseline, unlike Struff (and most of the tour, for that matter).
2. I mean, yes and no. He's been around a long time and has a very healthy ~30% win-rate against the top-10. He's a very dangerous player and he got hot for sure this week in conditions that suited his game and with a pretty nice draw. While I can't see him winning the french, with all his match wins and confidence so far, none of the top guys will want to see him in their section of the draw for the first week!
Nice analysis! Always a good read.
I think two additional statistics are very telling:
1. Struff's first serve percentage was really low, 51% match and was below 40% for some time. If he serves a little better, the match would be even closer. I wonder if it's just a bad (nervous) day for him in terms of serving, or was Carlos's presense playing a role.
2. Alcaraz's first serve win percentage was significantly lower than usual. 67% match and was down to around 50% early on. It shows the effectiveness of Struff's returning strategy and performance.
I would indeed be very curious to see how the players you named (Matteo, Nick, etc.) play Carlos.