A Servebot is Born; Murray Retires; Sinner Cruises

Andy fucking Murray — padel tennis — low tosses

Jul 08, 2024

The first week of Wimbledon has been typical in many ways; rain delays were had; volleys were dived for; aces unfolded into tie-breakers which unfolded into deep five-set affairs; Casper Ruud lost early; Novak Djokovic didn’t.

The big news was the Murray retirement. More on that later.

What follows is a dump of unrelated observations and thoughts.

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

If you hadn’t heard of 20-year-old Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (GMP) before this week, you probably have now. The 6’8” Frenchman was a lucky loser from the qualifying draw who fired more than two-sets worth of aces (51) past Sebastian Korda in the first round. Korda, who came into Wimbledon with form and fitness, would have been fuming, as his original draw had him facing the talented-but-out-of-sorts-initialism of ADF (Spain’s Alejandro Davidovich Fokina).

A look at the Frenchman’s serve has all the elements I wrote about several years ago — namely, a low toss and delayed racquet head — that produces the stretch-shortening cycle of the hitting arm:1

“The shoulder is the funnel for the transfer of energy from the trunk to the racket arm… The pause in changing racket direction from backswing to forward swing should be small to optimise the return of elastic energy to the concentric muscle contraction responsible for this forward motion.”
— Technique Development in Tennis Stroke Production

Here’s Hurkacz showing how the legs start to drive the torso, which then funnel the energy into the racquet.

New Recording - 15/10/2023, 19:08:05 — Note how Hubi starts to drive his legs while the racquet is still in front of his body (i.e., with his shoulder in internal rotation). This is how you can maximise the “stretch-shortening” cycle and create huge racquet head speed into the shot. The same principle is seen in many powerful shots: Alcaraz and Sinner forehands (and Sinner’s backhand).

GMP’s serve practice:

Other exponents of the low toss missile include Kyrgios and Shelton (who rocketed one serve at 153 mph earlier this week).

Great technique aside, standing at 6’8’’ means the levers that GMP operates with grant him access to power and angles that few possess, and it hasn’t taken him long to join the exclusive “50-aces-in-a-match” club. Further concern for opponents may be warranted by GMP’s decent movement and forecourt comfort, winning 90 of 124 net points in his first three rounds.

While I agree with Sell that the trend is towards taller players, tennis will likely be proactive when (not if) players of GMP’s size and serving prowess become more common.

Average height of ATP Finals groupings (2005-2023).

Sports have always tweaked the rules to satisfy our thirst for entertainment. Wilt Chamberlain’s dominance in basketball led to a host of changes in the paint, and the serves of Sampras et al. in the 90s were a catalyst for the firmer grass we have today that enables the baseline affairs to continue uninterrupted from Paris to London. Unsurprisingly, the world’s richest sports league, the NFL, openly pledge fealty to entertainment:

“If someone wants to accuse the National Football League of promoting offense to make the game more exciting, [the committee] believes the league should plead guilty.”
— From a 2012 Competition Committee report

With the world awash in a sea of content, tennis’ governing bodies need to have their finger on the spectator’s pulse more than ever. That means less aces than GMP’s 51, but how you get there isn’t always a straightforward solution. Some would argue that today’s game is too much of a double-fisted pugilistic slugfest, devoid of the forecourt touch and variety that defined much of the former great rivalries.

Christopher Clarey

wrote of the dearth of serve-and-volley in a recent piece, and I’ve written about the extinction of the single-handed backhand this year as well. Both are tired purist talking points, but they are symptoms of a trend — namely, the death of variance in pursuit of efficiency — that threaten the game’s visual appeal. It’s not a phenomenon confined to tennis or even to sports (it’s happening to cars, cities, and airbnb’s), but the powers that be would be prudent to proactively tip the scales ever toward aesthetics and entertainment.2

“Learn from me. I was not the best because I killed quickly. I was the best because the crowd loved me.”
— Proximo

American Rhetoric: Movie Speech from Gladiator - Proximo Addresses his Gladiators for the First Time

In a prior long-form piece on the threat of Padel — a timely plug given Djokovic’s recent press comments — I wrote:

But as I hinted in the opening lines, tennis isn’t actually full of the forecourt net exploits and variation that someone like Alcaraz, Dimitrov, and Evans might bring…The modern trend is clear at the top of the game: players are getting taller, one-handers are dying out, baseline play is the norm, and the fringe elements—slices, approach shots, volleys, and drop shots—are just that: fringe elements that certainly help, but aren’t necessary for year-round success (although the drop shot is having a moment, which is great). One only has to watch one Medvedev vs. Zverev match to have seen them all.

I’ve advocated for the notion of “middleweight tennis” — involving players who aren’t big enough to servebot and who use their footspeed and racquet work to win points — as being the sweet-spot with current technology and conditions. It is the synthesis of power and finesse that is intuitively attractive.

Look how many elements are woven together in last year’s best point:

The goal is to produce as much of that as possible. That is how you survive in the 21st century media landscape, because even within the racquet sports ecosystem — a sliver of the total sports economy — this is what tennis is competing with:

Professional doubles players in particular (who survive on tennis welfare) need to ask themselves how they compete with Padel’s growing grassroots and commercial enterprise. Matt Ebden, a two-time doubles slam champion and a member of the ATP Player Council Advisory, isn’t thinking radically enough in this Australian Open Guardian piece:

“There is space for tennis in doubles to have fans engaged, closer to the court, maybe some music, maybe no sitting down after one end,” he said. “Just keep the game running, keep it interactive.”

Their necessity for change should be seen as an opportunity to try bold adjustments to formats, equipment, or rules. One serve only? Slightly shorter racquets? A Pickleball-esque ‘kitchen’? Turn your nose at your own risk, for reality is ruthless.3 Courtside seats and T-Swift on the changeover reek of ‘survival’. The core product needs an overhaul:

Maybe I’m overly pessimistic and tennis is fine to rely on two or three generational singles talents to subvert tactical norms and bring exciting fresh styles, but the game would be wise to study the NFL’s playbook as a hedge, and to look across at Padel for inspiration.

GMP takes on Lorenzo Musetti in the fourth round on Monday.

Favourite Predictions

World number 1 Jannik Sinner came through in straight sets against Ben Shelton in his fourth-round match. The Italian was handed a tough draw at the beginning of the fortnight, overcoming 2021 Wimbledon finalist and fellow Italian Matteo Berrettini in the second round, before throttling Miomir Kecmanovic (who was on the receiving end of a similar blitzing from Alcaraz down under) in the third round. To my eye his movement is cleaner on the grass this year and he is my pick for the title. He takes on Medvedev in the quarterfinals. Prediction: Sinner in 3.

Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz looked sharper in his fourth-round victory over Ugo Humbert on Sunday. He narrowly avoided defeat at the hands of Frances Tiafoe in the third round, finding some of his best work — and best serving — late in the fourth set to swing the momentum in his favour. Alcaraz is now 12-1 in fifth sets. It reminded me of the quote he gave after his Roland Garros victory last month: ““In the fifth set of the final is the time to give it all, fight until you can’t fight anymore. That’s what makes you a warrior, and I consider myself a warrior.” Alcaraz plays Tommy Paul in the quarterfinals. Prediction: Alcaraz in 4.
Seven-time champion Djokovic is moving through the draw with a little more scoreline friction than he would like following minor knee surgery. He dropped a set against Brit and world #277 Jacob Fearnley in the second round, and then ceded the opener to Alexei Popyrin in the third. It’s hard to write-off the Serb at Wimbledon despite his sub-par (where par is admittedly stratospheric) year, but one wonders if he can regain the edge that propelled him to three slams last year. While Djoker’s famously ascetic lifestyle has allowed him to slide his way past multiple generations of greats with his silky coiled strokes, even he must reckon with the debts owed, and the body always collects. Roger, Rafa, and Andy are testament to that. Djokovic takes on Holger Rune in the fourth-round tomorrow. Prediction: Djokovic in 5.

I think Sinner defeats Alcaraz in five sets in the semifinals, and defeats de Minaur in four sets in the final.

Andy Murray

Andy Murray has played his last match at Wimbledon, five years and one metal hip later than expected. The Scot was responsible for shouldering British hopes during a decade that collided with the Big-3’s peak. An 11-time slam finalist and 3-time slam winner (twice at Wimbledon in 2013, 2016), Murray’s talent and grit were blended in a way that made him an artful counter-puncher with a big engine and a bigger heart. Anticipation, variation, end-range feel, and an indecent Scottish mouth were trademarks. I’ll always remember his comeback against Richard Gasquet from the 2008 Wimbledon fourth round, and this iconic set-point passing shot that sparked it:

What separated the Big-3 from Andy? The margins are thin when you consider how successful Murray was against his peers, but there were cracks in his game that became magnified in big matches:

The second serve was always attackable, often landing short and slow.
The forehand was not as dynamic or threatening.
He often lacked aggression and allowed the fates of matches to be steered by the Big-3

This last point is nit-picky considering that he was a natural counterpuncher who loved to make you miss. But the Big-3 just didn’t miss enough in those big slam matches, and Murray’s end-range talents — while being ridiculously good — simply weren’t alien like Nadal and Djokovic. And as the slam gap widened over the years, Murray’s all-too-human game became part of his appeal; he hustled and lobbed and limped and cursed in the face of greatness. He lost more than he won, but this didn’t discourage him in the slightest. He simply relished the process of playing tennis, and that was something we could all appreciate.

Thanks Andy, you fucking legend.

The Murray trademarks: Fuck, Lob, and Shit

(Photo sources4)

See you after the Wimbledon final. HC

From a prior piece where I spoke about Hubi Hurkacz’s serve mechanics.

Relying on star power too much is a recipe for disaster. One or two injuries, or one or two upsets, kills ratings for a tournament. See the 2023 Aus Open for an example.