Wimbledon Draw Preview
Can anyone stop the Djoker?
The third grand slam of the year gets underway on Monday at the home of tennis. Some notable results from the short grass season:
Top seed Carlos Alcaraz won his maiden grass title at Queens. After surviving his opening round match against Rinderknech, the young Spaniard convincingly dispatched Lehecka, Dimitrov, Korda, and De Minaur to quell any doubts he can adapt to the green stuff.
Frances Tiafoe defeated hometown favourite Jan-Lennard Struff at the BOSS Open held in Stuttgart. A thrilling match was capped off with a diving volley from Tiafoe to seal the victory and earn a place in the top 10 of the rankings for the first time in the young American’s career.
Tallon Griekspoor won his second title of the year at home in 's-Hertogenbosch, defeating Jordan Thompson in the final.
Alexander Bublik defeated Andrey Rublev at Halle to reach a career-high 26 in the rankings after a very impressive week. En route to the final Bublik defeated Bautista-Agut, Zverev, Sinner, Struff, and Coric.
Novak Djokovic chose to skip the grass season events following his triumph at Roland Garros. The Serb tends to use the first few rounds at Wimbledon as a tune-up. Goat flex.
After 46 men’s qualifying matches (held at Roehampton—a different venue to the Wimbledon courts) the following stats are available, compared to last month’s Roland Garros qualifying (112 matches) on clay:
Cameron Norrie: “The courts are very green and very lush. The balls are staying really low.”
I haven’t found much regarding the balls themselves or more player sentiment around the speeds of the court. More will come out in the first few days of play. Let’s check out the draw.
First Quarter
Top Seeds —— Carlos Alcaraz opens his campaign against French veteran Jeremy Chardy. This is a tough little section for the Spaniard; a bunch of players around him enjoy the grass. A possible rematch with Arthur Rinderknech lurks in the second-round, before any of Jason Kubler, Ugo Humbert, or Nicholas Jarry are likely third-round opponents. Still, I’d expect him to navigate to a fourth round where Alexander Zverev or Alex De Minaur likely awaits. Holger Rune leads the charge from the bottom of this section. He has a relatively kind draw on paper but he is still inexperienced on this surface. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go deep here, but there are players in his section—Davidovic Fokina, Fils, Van De Zandschulp—who can play well on this surface. Frances Tiafoe is in career-best form and brings a grass court title into Wimbledon this year. His game is so well suited to grass, but young lefty Swiss Dominic Stricker is my pick to beat Alexei Popyrin and provide a very stern second-round test should Tiafoe navigate Yibing Wu. Finally, the most experienced grass courter in this patch, Grigor Dimitrov, is in good shape. He’s been solid this year with few bad losses, but he also hasn’t had a great win or tournament. Can he capitalise here?
Upsets —— More of a feeling than anything but George Loffhagen has been thrown a wildcard and faces Holger Rune. At 364 in the rankings it would be a huge upset, but I don’t think that number reflects his ability and Rune is still inexperienced on grass. Plus I like to throw in one wild upset for first-round previews. I like Loffhagen’s ability to chip returns and use the forecourt well. Rune has proven himself effective on grass but the pressure of facing an unknown Brit in the first-round will be a new experience for the sixth seed, and his tendency to get passive when under pressure might bite him on grass.
Dark Horses —— It’s hard to pick someone other than Alcaraz coming through the top half here after his Queen’s performance, but Rinderknech has the game to trouble anyone on grass. In a slightly more favourable section, Yosuke Watanuki is another to keep an eye on; the Lucky Loser mentality can work wonders. From the bottom half, I’ll take the qualifying momentum of Dominic Stricker as a possible bolter.
Quarterfinal Prediction: Alcaraz def. Dimitrov
Second Quarter
Top Seeds —— Daniil Medvedev takes on Stanford’s Arthur Fery in the opening round and may come up against Adrian Mannarino in a very tricky second round. It doesn’t get easier from there, with Marton Fucsovics and Tallon Griekspoor both very dangerous on this surface (sidenote: rough first-round for two guys who were outside chances to go deep). Stefanos Tsitsipas seems to have other things on his mind these days and grass is his weakest surface. I think he will beat Dominic Thiem, but I also think Andy Murray will take him out in round two. Sebastian Korda has self-proclaimed a favourite tag upon himself, but let’s wait and see if he can navigate the early rounds where the other seed in his section, Cameron Norrie, has a semi-final appearance to defend and comes in a little off his best this year. Francisco Cerundolo has gone from strength to strength in 2023 across all three surfaces; he backed up last year’s performance in Miami, enjoyed a very solid clay swing, and just won the Eastbourne title. Although more comfortable on clay, he has good hands, moves well, and has been more open to employing grass-court tactics into his game. The rewards have been immediate. Ben Shelton and Tommy Paul lead the American charge and should enjoy these conditions, with both opening against qualifiers.
Upsets —— Not a lot seems to grab me in this section. I’ll put down Tomas Machac as my best pick against Cameron Norrie. Fucsovics is unseeded but I wouldn’t consider that an upset if he beat Griekspoor.
Dark Horses —— Not sure if he counts as a dark horse given his pedigree, but Andy Murray deserves mention. He romped through a few grass Challengers and has a great chance to assume the fifth seed draw. He reads big servers—like Cressy, Tsitsipas, and Shelton—very well and will have the nation behind him. From the top half, I’m keeping an eye on Marcos Giron. His game is perfectly suited to grass, and this draw could shake out to help him if, say, Fucsovics and Griekspoor hammer each other for five sets, and Mannarino handles Medvedev. Additionally, Francisco Cerundolo is just such a solid baseliner and is proving his quality every month. Can he keep up the grass momentum?
Quarterfinal Prediction: Medvedev def. Murray
Third Quarter
Top Seeds —— Jannik Sinner has a good draw here and I like his chances to go deep. JM Cerundolo—the brother of Francisco—is less of an all-surface threat and is more suited to clay. Dan Evans is lacking confidence (his words) and I think Quentin Halys or Alexander Vukic will take their chances into the third-round. Casper Ruud has used the grass season to rest following his runner-up performance at Roland Garros. He has a decent draw if he can find his feet quickly but his game really doesn’t translate well to grass and I’m not expecting a second-week showing. Denis Shapovalov is also lacking form but has the game to beat anyone should he string together some wins. Taylor Fritz takes on Yannick Hanfmann in his opener and that will be one to watch, with the German in career-best form and Fritz losing early in his two grass tune-ups. Yoshihito Nishioka didn’t play a lead-up and has struggled for wins at Wimbledon, so despite his seeding, I’m not expecting him to reach the third-round here. Roberto Bautista Agut is well suited to low and quicker conditions and has done well here in the past. He’s not quite the same player that reached the semi-finals here in 2019, but he’s a wall on the slicker surfaces.
Upsets —— I think the bottom of this section could really open up. Many seeds have tough first matches. Firstly, I think Guido Pella is a great chance against Coric. Pella has been sidelined with injuries in recent years, but he has done well here in the past and posted some strong matches in the lead-up events. Radu Albot is match-hardened having come through qualifying and has a great opportunity against an out-of-form Shapovalov. Yannik Hanfmann against Fritz should be a cracker. Quinten Halys has a big game and has a great chance against Evans. Laurent Lokoli is also battle-tested and will have his chances against Ruud. A very interesting quarter for first-round viewing.
Dark Horses —— Lloyd Harris has a very tough first-round match against the in-form Gregoire Barrere, but should he navigate that it’s a favourable draw considering the form (on grass at least, in Casper’s case) of the seeds in his section. He’s still working his way back up the rankings after season-ending wrist surgery in 2022. From the top half I’ll take Mikael Ymer; I like his fundamentals and he does well on faster surfaces.
Quarterfinal Prediction: Sinner def. Bautista Agut
Fourth Quarter
Top Seeds —— Novak Djokovic enters as the overwhelming favourite again. Brandon Nakashima and Emil Ruusuvuori are clean hitters who can test the Serb on a good day. Hubert Hurkacz has struggled in 2023, but he has a great draw so maybe he can get his season back on track here with a decent showing. Felix Auger-Aliassime is still struggling with knee issues and it’s unclear just how fit he is. Alexander Bublik is coming off an impressive week in Halle but Mackenzie McDonald first up is very tough. Nick Kyrgios is another with knee issues as he works his way back from surgery. The movement hasn’t looked great. Andrey Rublev is having a good year and has done reasonably well here in past years. If Max Purcell is fully fit (a right ankle injury has been hampering him) I’d think an upset is on the cards given the Aussie was in red-hot form for the first half of this year and enjoys grass, but his fitness is still a question mark. Lorenzo Musetti has shown some grass chops—he’s got a great slice and volleys well—and he has a decent draw, but his game is really better suited to clay.
Upsets —— The obvious choice is picking David Goffin over Kyrgios here. Goffin’s form isn’t great, but Kyrgios’ fitness is still a big question mark.
Dark Horses —— I can’t see anyone beating a healthy Djokovic in the bottom half, but if I had to pick one it would be Emil Ruusuvuori. From the top half I’ll take Luca Van Assche. He enjoys faster conditions and although he is inexperienced on this surface is a great young talent.
Quarterfinal Prediction: Djokovic def. Rublev
I’m picking Alcaraz and Djokovic to reach the final.
I’ll be back around middle Sunday with a match analysis from the first week.
I would have Chris Eubanks as a definite datk horse in the 2nd quarter. He has a great 1st and 2nd serve, and is very aggressive going for his shots. His slice backhand looked much more effective in Mallorca than it had been it seems. He can definitely take the racquet out of just about anyone's hands.
Hello Hugh. Great analysis! I am going to ask you one question that I have previously asked before to others but it keeps popping.
Here it goes:- 'Alcaraz has an explosive game, and grass offers much more free points than clay. Shouldn't grass then suit his game more than clay against Djokovic?'