12 Comments

I would have Chris Eubanks as a definite datk horse in the 2nd quarter. He has a great 1st and 2nd serve, and is very aggressive going for his shots. His slice backhand looked much more effective in Mallorca than it had been it seems. He can definitely take the racquet out of just about anyone's hands.

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Good pick. Honestly so many guys could make a run here because besides Djokovic, every other seed really has no deep tournament grass experience

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Great call here John!

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Hello Hugh. Great analysis! I am going to ask you one question that I have previously asked before to others but it keeps popping.

Here it goes:- 'Alcaraz has an explosive game, and grass offers much more free points than clay. Shouldn't grass then suit his game more than clay against Djokovic?'

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Yeah I think there are many aspects of Alcaraz’s game that translate perfectly to grass, and he himself sees himself as becoming a great grass player who has it as his favourite surface. Honestly I think it’s just a time/experience thing. I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t win multiple Wimbledons in his career and I won’t be surprised if he reaches the final this year. But v Djokovic, the grass gives a bigger edge to the Serb because he gets more free points (better serve that is rewarded on grass more), and because CA’s forehand is better when there is time and bounce. Not quite ideal on faster surfaces (but it’s still great no matter the surface). If they play Novak will do the same tactic as the French, but it will be even more effective probably because he will rush Alcaraz’s forehand even more

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As for the Alcaraz backhand, I still can’t settle on which conditions / surface suit it best

The lower bounce might expose his flatter swing path and not as great racket drop as the very best exponents, but also there will be less cross court rallyes to expose it big. Plus the fact that he takes it flat and early maybe makes him less rushable on those fast surfaces and he can also block returns effectively with his very nice locked wrist feature

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No mention of matteo in quarter 1?

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Yeah perhaps I should have. Perfect dark horse candidate but he’s just looked very average this year and struggled a lot physically.

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Great analysis as always. Few personal thoughts from the first two quarters where I tend to differ a bit:

I don't know a lot about Loffhagen but I'm gonna trust your analysis on him. However, I also trust Rune's technical cleanliness to do the job even if he is still finding his footing. If he can get through this match, I believe he can get through to the QF - the stiffest test being Tiafoe -

If he doesn't, I'm not sure I can trust Dimitrov to get to the QFs, might lean with the better athlete at this point in Tiafoe. Plus nowadays Dimitrov always has an awful slam day

If Rune can reach Alcaraz, I believe he can take him out in a similar fashion to what Sinner or Djokovic are able to produce.

I had locked Mannarino to beat Medvedev, before worning out against Fucsovics or Griekspoor, but now the fact Mannarino might be injured puts Medvedev back into the equation. However, my "wild" pick is Lehecka gets that QF spot anyway. Just a feeling based on how clean his game is, but with his recent form he might as well crash out R1 against Ofner.

I have Korda defeating Cressy in the R4 (Murray would defeat Tsitsipas and then bust out to fatigue in a similar way to his match against Isner last year), however Korda has a very tricky R1 against Vesely on the fresh grass. Upset or SF to me

Now that Kyrgios has pulled out in the "physical question mark" group, FAA and Berrettini remain. If they are fit I believe Matteo has a shot at upsetting ADM but he has a bad match-up against Zverev. FAA is unlucky to be unfit because that draw is good. If he gets into a purple patch I don't see Rublev being able to break it until Novak eventually does in a cruel fashion.

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Yeah I’ve taken some risks here as it’s grass and there are a lot of young players who lack experience. Rune I love (as readers know) but I like to throw in one wild pick! I like Foe a lot as well, I just think his draw is a little tougher than Dimitrov and the Bulgarian has been sneaky solid this year. Grass is rough to predict; lots of breakers and things can happen quickly. Won’t be surprised to see Korda go deep either. And I think Murray is fitter and better prepared this year, but at his age and with his condition we will see.

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Hi Hugh, Why do you like Foe he has an extreme next gen forehand right? I personally see his forehand falling apart quickly on defence on the grass.

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Well these trade offs are small details regarding the forehand. Foe has quick hands, and the lower take back works in terms of saving time. I just think it’s sub-optimal under pressure (and that’s just a theory). Foe has a great serve, good flat Bh, good slice, comes forward well. Super dangerous on grass

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