Main draw action gets underway in New York today. Conditions:
Other Notes
Gauff Gets Technical
On the women’s side, Coco Gauff has axed one of her coaches and brought in Gavin MacMillan: the former biomechanical guru who helped fixed Aryna Sabalenka’s serving woes a few years ago. MacMillan is big on gravity mechanics on groundstrokes — getting the racquet tip upright to help build speed and allow the ball-and-socket joint of the shoulder to unwind for maximum speed. On serve he has talked about the importance of internally rotating the toss arm, and how it relates to Serge Gracovetsky’s ‘spinal engine’ theory of human movement. Gracovetsky — now passed — talks with an Eastern-Euro-Bond-Villain cadence and precision that reflects an imposing intellect. You can read his spinal engine book on the internet archive for free, with particular emphasis on page 412 for how the spin delivers power to the shoulders in throwing and serving.
I think we’ll see some noticeable technical changes in Gauff’s serve this week: more coil in the hips and torso (more like Fritz), more medial toss arm rotation (more like Demon), and with the strings pointing more toward the ground in the trophy position phase (more like Fritz):
Djokovic On the Two Week Masters
In pre-tournament press the Serbian legend voiced his displeasure with the longer format Masters events (does anyone like this format from a fan POV?)
"To be quite frank with you, I don’t enjoy the two-week Masters events anymore. It's just way too long for me. I’d like to play more of the other tournaments, but I just, we have currently, unofficially, 12 Grand Slams a year, when you think about it"
He also acknowledged that this fell partly on his fellow players, who failed to be active enough when this was on the negotiation table:
“I’ve noticed a lot of top players have opposed the new two-week Masters events. I support the players, but at the end of the day, when players needed to be active—during negotiations and decision-making—they weren’t participating enough.
“That’s the ongoing issue. Players, especially top players, express their feelings, but when it’s time to put in the energy for meetings and conversations, it doesn’t happen. I know it’s difficult—I’ve been there many times—but it’s necessary. Because then you’re not only doing something for yourself, but for future generations. That’s how you make the right moves and contribute. I just doubt anything will change in the foreseeable future with contracts that are solid and bring a lot of revenue to the tournaments.”
That’s all I got.
A look at each quarter:
FIRST QUARTER
Sinner def. Cobolli
Sinner is impervious on hard courts outside of bouts of food poisoning or matches against Carlos Alcaraz. Draper hasn’t played since Wimbledon save for the definitely-not-an-exhibition mixed doubles exhibition. Musetti hasn’t been great since injuring his leg at RG, and his hard court elo pales in comparison to his natural surface resume. Ditto Tommy Paul, who does have hard court pedigree (and elo backing), but is lacking match wins since Paris. Gabriel Diallo is 6’8’’ with a big serve/forehand looking to come forward and who has only lost to top brass since Wimbledon. Bublik is having a career-best season but opens against 2014 US Champion Marin Cilic, and his drop shots aren’t as effective on hard. Shapovalov won in Mexico but didn’t fire in the Masters 1000s. Cobolli had a break-out at Wimbledon and kept things close in his losses to Shelton and Atmane at the 1000s.
Seeds Upset:
Feeling it: Cilic def. Bublik
Maybe? Fucsovics def. Shapovalov; GMP def. Musetti
Quality Qualifier:
First-Round Match: Fucsovics vs Shapovalov
Dark Horses: Popyrin was struggling but found some wins this North American hard court swing. He has a big game but a likely second-round match with Sinner would still be a huge ask. From the bottom I’ll mention Jenson Brooksby, who has performed well in NYC in recent years.
Almost went with… Draper’s lack of matches since Wimbledon don’t help the Brit. Coupled with his new Vuori clothing sponsorship, one wonders if he is here to fulfil inked contract duties as much as defend his semifinal points.
Toughest Draw? Bublik. Opens against Cilic — who on his day can still take the racquet out of your hands — then probably plays Sonego and Paul, both of which made the quarterfinals of this year’s other hard court major at the Australian Open.
Getting ahead of myself: Diallo vs Draper would be interesting. Diallo has the match fitness and recent confidence to take his chances if he kept it close.
SECOND QUARTER
Zverev def. Khachanov
Zverev has a renewed perspective following a post-Wimbledon-loss, spending a week at the Nadal Academy talking forehands with Rafa into the early hours. De minaur won a crazy Washington final and has been solid, as you would expect. Rublev has looked better in North America; I liked how he came forward more in Cincy, and with Safin in tow he looks like he is enjoying himself on court again. Khachanov may be in career-best form with his new Wilson racquet and is a former semifinalist here (2022). FAA made the quarters in Cincy but had a terrible serving day. The Canadian has match wins this year, but would like to fire in the last major of the year after early exits elsewhere. Humbert has never progressed far in America, despite how his game suits hard courts. Cerundolo has a tough opener against Arnaldi and has been relatively quiet since Roland Garros. Tsitsipas is back with his father as coach but is in a free fall career-wise. The forehand is still a top weapon (he’s 7th on Tennis Insights’ 52-week hardcourt rating), but the backhand is not even top 50, and the serve has slipped to 46th.
Seeds Upset:
Feeling it: Walton def. Humbert
Maybe? Prizmic def. Rublev
Quality Qualifier: Dino Prizmic is a 20-year-old Croat who has been tearing up the Challenger circuit this year. You might have first heard of him after a close tussle with Djokovic in Australia lat year. He’s also another Wilson Blade player who has converted to the blacked-out-aero-styled prototype frame.
First-Round Match: Rublev vs Prizmic
Dark Horses: There’s plenty of established talent in the top half — Monfils, RBA, and Safiullin — but for match-fitness (he’s played 26 matches since June) and youth, I’m going to mention Prizmic again. It’s a tough first-round that could open up into a very soft section should he pull the upset off. From the bottom half I’ll take Hamad Medjedovic. He’s got firepower everywhere and the game-style to rush Tsitsipas should they meet.
Almost went with… de Minaur. He’s hard not to back given his draw, as he usually beats who he should beat. But his 8-39 record versus top-5 opponents signals where movement and court craft top-out when you lack elite hitting power.
Toughest Draw? None
THIRD QUARTER
Djokovic def. Fritz
Djokovic only plays slams now, but that hasn’t stopped him from making semis all year. Fritz got his season back on track during the grass swing. Rune squandered good draws in Toronto and Cincy, and he just doesn’t have the consistency one might of expected of him since 2022. Mensik’s Miami run is doing some heavy lifting for his seeding, and he’s had some tough five-sets losses in slams. Machac is another Czech who’s been quiet in recent months and has an injury tag that is almost permanent. Tiafoe is a different player in NYC, and he’s talented enough for pundits to ignore form and trust the class he can bring here. Michelsen is probably the most under-hyped youngster; great backhand for slick surfaces. Nakashima did well here last year and has a sneaky good serve.
Seeds Upset:
Feeling it: Nardi def. Machac
Maybe? BVZ def. Rune; Jarry def. Mensik; de Jong def. Nakashima
Quality Qualifier: I watched Zachary Svajda play Cerundolo some years back at the Open, and this year the 22-year-old has been racking up plenty of wins at the Challenger and 250 level in recent weeks.
First-Round Match: Fonseca vs Kecmanovic; Norrie vs Korda; BVZ vs Rune; Struff McDonald; Tien vs Djokovic; and don’t forget Nava vs Fritz. Nava is a former junior finalist (2019) on the cusp of a top 100 ranking. The best quarter in terms of first-round matches.
Dark Horses: So many here… Up top I’ll take the winner of Korda vs Norrie. From the bottom section I’ll take Fonseca despite the sophomore slump he’s kind of in right now.
Almost went with… I don’t really see it in this section, but Nakashima deserves a shout given he made the fourth round last year.
Toughest Draw? Rune. It’s quality players projected from start to finish.
FOURTH QUARTER
Alcaraz def. Shelton
Alcaraz won in Cincy but has a very dangerous opener. Shelton won in Toronto and has a great opener/draw in general. Medvedev gets a Wimbledon rematch vs Bonzi, but like Tsitsipas, the Russian’s form is far from his best (but for inverse groundstroke reasons: the backhand is still top 5 for Tennis Insights, but the forehand — which scored an 8.56 overall in 2023, has dropped to a 7.47 for 52-weeks on hard). Still, he won the title here in 2021 and owns a 33-7 record. Ruud has been underwhelming outside of Madrid. Lehecka gave a good account of himself on the North American swing, holding his seed every week. Griekspoor has only won one match since winning on the grass in Mallorca. Davidovich Fokina has retired from his last two events since losing a heart-crusher of a final to de Minaur in Washington. Darderi is running a Sebastian Baez program; the Italian has two wins on hard courts this year (McDonald, Martinez), and is seeded due to his prowess at the 250 clay level (titles in Umag, Bastad, and Marrakech in 2025).
Seeds Upset:
Feeling it: Hijikata def. Darderi; Mannarino def. Griekspoor; Shevchenko def. ADF
Maybe? Opelka def. Alcaraz
Quality Qualifier:
First-Round Match: Shang vs Belluci for some low-height/high-octane middleweight tennis
Dark Horses: Up top I’ll take Mannarino given his form and prior win over Shelton in a slam (Australia 2024). From the bottom section I gotta go with Opelka. The 6’11’’ American played a ball-bashing-yet-cerebral match against de Minaur in Cincy, and this match will give him similar clarity; take huge cuts at every ball and give zero rhythm.
Almost went with… Lehecka has the draw and firepower to make it deep here. The movement is always the limiting factor.
Toughest Draw? Alcaraz. Purely for first-round danger.
I’ll see you in the comments. HC
Opelka strikes me as one of those servebots who is also vulnerable as all servebots are: if it gets into a ground game/rally, they're already behind. Just as GMP lost a key set to lose a semi the other day from 5-2, I recently saw Opelka lose a match from, I think, 5-2 (maybe 5-3) in the 3rd when you're thinking "all he has to do is turn up on his service game". True, Alcaraz won't get any rhythm, but do we think of Carlos as a rhythm player?
Djokovic has what looks like a dream draw. Hard not to see him in the quarters, even - once more! - semis.
I’m a Gavin fan and lean toward the technical side over the mental in tennis. I’m hoping that he does well with Coco in the long run (even if the US open is a disaster).
One thing he always says is that pressure breaks down poor technique. Being able to hit a second serve 20x in a row during practice isn’t a valid test. Every commentator and even Roddick keep resorting to that line of argument like it’s proof that it’s all mental. But tennis is all about pressure and performing under escalating pressure. What matters is if your technique holds up during the important points—when the score is 5-5 30-30, can you execute?