Opelka strikes me as one of those servebots who is also vulnerable as all servebots are: if it gets into a ground game/rally, they're already behind. Just as GMP lost a key set to lose a semi the other day from 5-2, I recently saw Opelka lose a match from, I think, 5-2 (maybe 5-3) in the 3rd when you're thinking "all he has to do is turn up on his service game". True, Alcaraz won't get any rhythm, but do we think of Carlos as a rhythm player?
Djokovic has what looks like a dream draw. Hard not to see him in the quarters, even - once more! - semis.
I’d be curious to hear your thoughts on Opelka’s serve before and after surgery (maybe you have already and I just need to look it up?). He can do some things no one can with his slice T and kicks. But, to me, he hits pretty far in front and often looks awkward coming out of his knee bend
I’m a Gavin fan and lean toward the technical side over the mental in tennis. I’m hoping that he does well with Coco in the long run (even if the US open is a disaster).
One thing he always says is that pressure breaks down poor technique. Being able to hit a second serve 20x in a row during practice isn’t a valid test. Every commentator and even Roddick keep resorting to that line of argument like it’s proof that it’s all mental. But tennis is all about pressure and performing under escalating pressure. What matters is if your technique holds up during the important points—when the score is 5-5 30-30, can you execute?
To be honest I think all the top 4 seeds + Djoker have good draws.
I think Zverev has the best draw, especially in terms of projected QF seeds (Demon or Khachanov; two players he has excellent records against), as well as the other seeds in his section.
I think Alcaraz's section is very soft (especially now Medvedev is gone) but Shelton is probably the worst 5-8 seed to play in the QFs of the US right now, not including Djoker.
I don't see anyone troubling Sinner if he is fit and playing well, and even a QF with Draper I would expect Sinner to win; Draper's heavy lefty ad-side game is somewhat muted against Sinner's excellent power and defense off his backhand wing.
Fritz has a good draw but if Mensik got hot with the serve he can make things a shoot out. Still, I'd expect over BO5 that the American navigates that.
Djokovic arguably has the toughest potential draw if a Rune or Tiafoe was to bring their best tennis, or even Norrie in round 3, but they are if's, and if Djoker is fit you would expect him to get through those.
All the typical danger men of prior years, the guys who could make a QF or even semi — Medvedev, Tsitsipas, Rublev, Rune, FAA, Shapo, Musetti, Paul — are either out of form (Med/Stef), have injury concerns (Musetti/Paul), or hev simply not fired in majors for some time (Canadians, Rune).
Maybe Rublev could make a run in his section and get the better of a Zverev.
Thank you for your insightful reply. I do wonder if you are underestimating Bublik. Did you see his match against Cilic? He lost two points on first-serve in the entire match. I honestly believe that his best level—which we saw against Draper and in parts of Halle—is better than anyone else's aside from those of Sinner, Alcaraz, and Djokovic.
No doubt. His best is crazy good, the problem historically has been how often/consistently he brings his best, especially in BO5 format. Didn’t see the match but obviously smoked Marin!
Opelka strikes me as one of those servebots who is also vulnerable as all servebots are: if it gets into a ground game/rally, they're already behind. Just as GMP lost a key set to lose a semi the other day from 5-2, I recently saw Opelka lose a match from, I think, 5-2 (maybe 5-3) in the 3rd when you're thinking "all he has to do is turn up on his service game". True, Alcaraz won't get any rhythm, but do we think of Carlos as a rhythm player?
Djokovic has what looks like a dream draw. Hard not to see him in the quarters, even - once more! - semis.
Yeah Opelka's quote is true for all servebots: "the beauty of my game is I can beat anybody, but the downside is I can lose to anybody"
I’d be curious to hear your thoughts on Opelka’s serve before and after surgery (maybe you have already and I just need to look it up?). He can do some things no one can with his slice T and kicks. But, to me, he hits pretty far in front and often looks awkward coming out of his knee bend
I’m a Gavin fan and lean toward the technical side over the mental in tennis. I’m hoping that he does well with Coco in the long run (even if the US open is a disaster).
One thing he always says is that pressure breaks down poor technique. Being able to hit a second serve 20x in a row during practice isn’t a valid test. Every commentator and even Roddick keep resorting to that line of argument like it’s proof that it’s all mental. But tennis is all about pressure and performing under escalating pressure. What matters is if your technique holds up during the important points—when the score is 5-5 30-30, can you execute?
How would you rank the paths of the top four seeds and Djokovic by difficulty?
To be honest I think all the top 4 seeds + Djoker have good draws.
I think Zverev has the best draw, especially in terms of projected QF seeds (Demon or Khachanov; two players he has excellent records against), as well as the other seeds in his section.
I think Alcaraz's section is very soft (especially now Medvedev is gone) but Shelton is probably the worst 5-8 seed to play in the QFs of the US right now, not including Djoker.
I don't see anyone troubling Sinner if he is fit and playing well, and even a QF with Draper I would expect Sinner to win; Draper's heavy lefty ad-side game is somewhat muted against Sinner's excellent power and defense off his backhand wing.
Fritz has a good draw but if Mensik got hot with the serve he can make things a shoot out. Still, I'd expect over BO5 that the American navigates that.
Djokovic arguably has the toughest potential draw if a Rune or Tiafoe was to bring their best tennis, or even Norrie in round 3, but they are if's, and if Djoker is fit you would expect him to get through those.
All the typical danger men of prior years, the guys who could make a QF or even semi — Medvedev, Tsitsipas, Rublev, Rune, FAA, Shapo, Musetti, Paul — are either out of form (Med/Stef), have injury concerns (Musetti/Paul), or hev simply not fired in majors for some time (Canadians, Rune).
Maybe Rublev could make a run in his section and get the better of a Zverev.
Thank you for your insightful reply. I do wonder if you are underestimating Bublik. Did you see his match against Cilic? He lost two points on first-serve in the entire match. I honestly believe that his best level—which we saw against Draper and in parts of Halle—is better than anyone else's aside from those of Sinner, Alcaraz, and Djokovic.
No doubt. His best is crazy good, the problem historically has been how often/consistently he brings his best, especially in BO5 format. Didn’t see the match but obviously smoked Marin!
Thank you for your response!