Djokovic x Tsitsipas: Rome Final Analysis

Djokovic forehand dominance—Tsitsipas' backhand exposed (again)—slices

Novak Djokovic defeated Stefanos Tsitsipas 6/0 7/6 in the final of the Rome Masters in a rematch of last year’s French Open final. Djokovic now enters the French Open as the bookies favourite following this win, and his form in this final was the best of his interrupted season so far.

The first points of the match set the tone for this encounter. Tsitsipas looked to pressure Djokovic's forehand, and on both occasions the Serb came up with powerful winners which eventually lead to a break. This was a bad sign for the Greek, considering his plan was probably to use his heavier forehand match-up to earn short balls; there’s no other pattern that has him holding the better cards against Djokovic.

Djokovic won the battle of the forehands today. He sent a clear message of his intent with this winner on the first point of the match.

The very next point the pace and depth of Djokovic’s forehand caught Tsitsipas with a tough bounce.

Although Djokovic had a clear plan to be more assertive with his forehand, the better play is still to attack the Tsitsipas backhand with space. As I have touched on in previous match analyses involving Tsitsipas, his slice backhand is poor for a single-hander, and this makes his defensive capabilities on that side weak for a top-5 player. Djokovic pounced on this with his first service point of the match, serving wide to the forehand and hitting his backhand into the open court, which drew the slice error.

Tsitsipas needs to make these shots if he is to progress further with his career. It’s a bad miss and a clear hole in his game.

The whole first set was a story of Djokovic’s beefed-up forehand and Tsitsipas’ mediocre backhand. Tsitsipas generally hit too short and without enough height, and Djokovic never looked uncomfortable on his way to a 6-0 routing. Similar to last week’s analysis of the Alcaraz and Djokovic Madrid match, I tracked the winners and errors of each player’s forehand and backhand when under pressure/moving to that side. I prefer this stat to the reported winner/error figures as this cuts the noise of easy putaway shots and puts a microscope on a player’s ability to handle pressure from the back of the court.

The Tsitsipas backhand has been a liability against the best players recently.

In the second set Tsitsipas made an adjustment in two areas; first, he started to target the Djokovic backhand on serve; second, he began to use more height and spin on his groundstrokes and was willing to play from further behind the line. The change in tactics paid off beautifully and did a good job disrupting the rhythm of Djokovic.

Tsitsipas still lost this point, but he started to make an adjustment to the height of his ball which helped him find a better length, and it disrupted Djokovic’s rhythm.

Although Djokovic doesn’t struggle with high balls, Tsitsipas’ higher and slower rally ball in the second set definitely drew some uncharacteristic errors from Djokovic. You could say that Tsitsipas definitely helped manufacture a lapse, and it was a smart adjustment. In fact, through the whole second set until 5-2 Tsitsipas barely missed a running backhand¹. At 5-3 15-0 Tsitsipas was on the verge of taking us to a third set, but the rest of the game was a flashback to the first set:

• 15-0: Tsitsipas sprays a backhand down the line wide for an error.

• 15-15: A forehand cross-court return winner from Djokovic.

• 15-30: A missed backhand slice drop shot from Tsitsipas.

• 15-40: A missed forehand wide from Tsitsipas.

A run of points like this is what separates good from great. If Tsitsipas had more discipline with his rally ball or a reliable slice option in his toolkit he would become a much tougher prospect, but as it stands his slice is under-developed and this forces him to take on topspin shots when out of position. If we look at the Tsitsipas slice, what stands out for me is his lack of ‘tension’ created in the wrist by using the left hand to pull the racquet head back. If we look at a great slicer like Federer, note that his racquet tip faces the side fence behind him, he is storing energy in his wrist that he can use to ‘flick’ and impart a lot of spin. Most great slicers—Dan Evans, Ash Barty, Grigor Dimitrov, and Steve Johnson to name a few—have this characteristic set-up with the racquet head pulled back behind them like the video below.

In contrast to these great slicers, Tsitsipas barely creates tension, or stored energy, in his right wrist; the racquet head remains more upright. It’s a subtle difference, but one that I think leads to a lack of racquet head speed on his slice, which in turn means he ends up hitting floating slices that don’t bite, or he dumps them short into the net.

By the time the tie-breaker arrived both men were adamant about finding each other’s backhand. Here’s how the tie-breaker unfolded:

• 1-0: Tsitsipas hit an unreturned serve to the Djokovic backhand.

• 1-1: Tsitsipas netted a topspin backhand from deep behind the baseline.

• 2-1: Tsitsipas shanked a high backhand.

• 2-2: Tsitsipas hit an unreturned serve to the Djokovic backhand.

• 2-3: Tsitsipas netted a regulation backhand up the line.

• 2-4: Djokovic hit an ace down the tee.

• 2-5: Djokovic hit an unreturned serve to the Tsitsipas backhand.

• 3-5: Tsitsipas hit an unreturned serve to the Djokovic backhand.

• 4-5: Tsitsipas got a slow reply off a Djokovic backhand return that he ripped into the Djokovic forehand for an error.

• 5-5: Djokovic netted a forehand. Djokovic had chances to rip the weak return but opted to roll high into the Tsitsipas backhand. Tsitsipas did well to hit high and spinny backhands and forehands in this rally.

• 6-5: Djokovic hit an unreturned serve to the Tsitsipas backhand.

• 7-5: Tsitsipas went into the Djokovic forehand during the rally, but Djokovic didn’t miss before opting to roll his forehand high into the Tsitsipas backhand. Tsitsipas shanked his backhand wide. A telling finish to the match.

The first eight points of this all-important tiebreaker were lost with backhand misses. Here’s a breakdown of how many shots were played and made off each wing for the breaker:

Of Djokovic’s 7 points that he won in the tie-breaker, one was an ace, and 6 were Tsitsipas backhand misses (2 on return).

We often see Djokovic go into ‘lockdown mode’ in important moments such as tiebreakers. He’s better than anyone at absorbing pressure and putting the ball in their court (with interest). In the whole tiebreaker the only ‘bad’ miss was probably the forehand at 5-4 that clipped the net tape. It was Tsitsipas’ best point; every shot was hit high and heavy, even the line backhand, and it was the kind of point he needed to play more often in order to make Djokovic uncomfortable; he’s too good at absorbing pace off his hips.

This kind of shape forces Novak further back and makes him hit high off his shoulders.

Heading into the French Open next week, Tsitsipas has taken losses to both Djokovic and Alcaraz, who exposed his backhand and went toe-to-toe on the forehand side. Until the Greek learns to slice better and has the discipline to play with more shape, I think he will struggle to post wins against these two; he gives top players too much breathing room with weak errors on that side.

1. I make these notes as I watch so it may be possible I missed one or two.