Your central topic is development, so these comments and questions seem appropriate:
I'll use Djokovic as a recent example because I have a good sense of his evolution. Djokovic in his physical prime (2011-2019) was undoubtedly superior physically to the later version of Djokovic. But I think it is evident that Djokovic in recent years is much more skilled than he used to be; his serve and his volleys in particular are better than they were in 2011 or 2015 or 2019. And we know that in general he is hitting the ball harder now than he was ten years ago. If, hypothetically, 2011 Djokovic played against 2023 Djokovic, is the former's physical advantage really enough to make up for the latter being more skilled in virtually every way?
I think the young Federer was superior to old Federer, but it can't be denied that Federer's backhand from 2017 to 2019 was infinitely better than it was prior to those years.
When talking about Nadal, people usually say he was best on clay in 2008 or 2010. Is this really true? He was without question physically superior in those years, but wouldn't he have been hitting harder later in his career?
I can make this matter more general. What do we mean when we say, "x is better than y?" Do we mean, "x would beat y in a match?" Or do we mean something else—when we are talking about (versions of) players from different eras? Players are hitting the ball harder than ever now; would Djokovic from 2011 be able to handle the pace of Sinner and Alcaraz?
When I watch older matches (think before the early 2000s), I often struggle to appreciate what is happening because I keep thinking, "these players would be obliterated if they played today." What are we talking about when we say that a match played in the 1980s was excellent? Are we referring to some transcendent standard of excellence? (I happen to think that we are, but it doesn't have so much to do with who would win a particular match.)
I also have a few thoughts about Sinner and Alcaraz's domination. People have been saying for over a year that the ATP is boring because Sinner and Alcaraz win everything. Yet I don't have the sense that anyone claimed Federer and Nadal's domination was boring. My suspicion is that when people say, "Sinner and Alcaraz's reign is boring," what they mean is, "Sinner is boring."
I can't help but feel that the gap between Federer and Nadal and their contemporaries from 2005-2007 was larger than the gap between Sinner and Alcaraz and their contemporaries, at least with respect to level. When I look at the year-end rankings in the middle of the 2000s, I always think that Zverev, Medvedev, Draper, Musetti, and perhaps some others are vastly superior to Roddick, Davydenko, Blake, etc. I am defining gap with respect to best level; how would you define it?
This is such a great comment, James! I personally find it impossible to compare across eras, I think most people feel the same. Just have to appreciate the tennis of the time in its time. I was watching a Jimmy Connors match a while ago and even though it was slower than the matches of today, I just marveled at his consistency going to the net. I never saw him when he was dominant, and it was just super cool seeing how differently the game was played.
I was certainly tired of Fed's singular dominance, grateful when Rafa came in. We need Carlos back, stat! Sinner by himself is super boring, feels like he's never going to lose again...
As a biologist, thank you for not misunderstanding Darwin. And as an Italian, we have a saying that drives home the difference between words-knowledge and action a bit harder than the English "easier said than done." It's "tra il dire e il fare c'è di mezzo il mare" - "between Saying and Doing there's a sea." And some are indeed unbelievably talented at quickly navigating that sea.
Last week I came across the Judge's 'thread of order' quote and had a bit of a 'Leo pointing at screen in Once Upon A Time In Hollywood' moment.
Your commentary on improvement rings true across every sport and is perhaps what is most impressive about the best athletes in the world. I think of Lebron James and his Olajuwon-sessions in Miami to improve his post up game and then his improved three pointer in his second stint in Cleveland. Steph Curry traded some quickness for width towards the end of the 2010s as defenses put large defenders on him to bump him off his spots. It's no coincidence in my eyes that the best athletes at improving in these ways also have some of the best mental games in the world.
Agreed bill, the best athletes are able to adapt to whatever the sport asks of them. The Nadal's and Ronaldo's and Curry's of the world would be great at whatever they put their mind to I think (Curry and Nadal kind of prove this with their elite golf games)
Very true, not to forget Nadal could have probably been a profession footballer (I mean soccer for americans). It always amazes me to look at the clip from the charity game where he scored 6 goals against one of the best goalkeeper of its generation. It's also funny to see he is right footed, as he is only a lefty on the tennis court..
I can't help but laugh at that speed/spin chart between the three Frenchmen!! Gaston, Mannarino, and Fils are from the same country but might as well be from different planets. FYI, Adrian and Arthur have only played once, back in 2023 on the grass courts of Hertogenbosch, and Mr Slow Ball beat him! 7-6(1), 6-4. God bless the most talented 3.5 player ever to turn professional (I kid, of course, AdMan is a sui generis super talent!). Hugo and Arthur have never played each other in singles, not yet!
there's definitely a place for the "compact backswing taking the ball early", but it's starting to get overtaken by "compact but whippy" strokes like a sinner forehand
What an interesting piece! I wonder if this progression in groundstrokes speeds is mainly a matter regarding the last 5-8 years or if it's been constant over time since tennis's new groundstroke power driven era started in the early 2000s. If the latter happened to be the case I guess we can expect 86 mph forehands to become the average 10 years from now lmao, prime Fonseca is going to be insane.
I also question wether this progression has been reflected in serve speeds too, we know they're currently far higher when compared to the early 2000s but what about the 2023 numbers? Is the 2026 average higher?
Serve speeds hhad an uptick from 2016 to 2019 (114mph to 117mph), and were steady through covid and have increased again from 117mph in 2023 to over 119 mph now.
ace rates have been steady though. There's a graph of this near the bottom of this piece:
Thanks for the answer! Considering the data you presented I honestly expect the ATP to slow down the courts/balls in the next 10 or so years.
Most casual fans hate servebots who can't keep a longer, more exciting baseline exchange going, yet tennis unfortunately seems to be moving towards an even more serve +1 dominated era. Slowing the game down would probably be the simplest solution
I definitely think there's been a lot of calls for more variety now that every hardcourt the last few years has played around 'medium-fast' and even places like Indian Wells lost some of it's slowness this year. Clay court tennis is probably the best viewing experience now because of the serve +1 excellence of most players now.
I think that like in golf with the "rollback" topic, tennis really has to have a reflexion about racquet size and technology. The thing I admire most with the players is their skill to hit dead center a ball in whatever position.
I remember vividly some slow-mos from Nadal at RG hitting winning running forehands with the frame in his final vs Wavrinka in 2017 and I didn't like it.
When I see highlights from the 90's, the most striking thing is that it is easy to spot a perfectly hit shot from a not centered shot. The differences are obvious and evidendly, Sampras and Agassi shone in that aspect (especially Sampras when he had time to perfectly set up a forehand, the pay-off was amazing).
Lucky enough, I saw JS almost everyear at the FO over the last 4 years and honestly, he is one of the cleanest hitter on the Tour and I thought better than Alcaraz overall.
A nice analysis as always - that final did not warrant a full writeup and I’m glad you went another way.
Some thoughts on that forehand speed evolution :
1) I think it would be interesting to dive deeper into the WHY. I think material changes are the biggest factor, but that we may overstate its importance compared to a self-feeding trend towards more agression. There’s definitely been a shift from the 10s to the 20s, but for example when comparing 2023 to 2026, has the whole tour (but Zverev, lol) undergone a technological revolution? Am I clueless on how often players tweak their material?
2) Also, I think an even more interesting question is whether we are facing evolution or progress. The game is undeniably changing, but is it better than 10 years ago because ball speeds have improved?
Serving is a bit of a separate issue and I guess more speed is an invaluable good, but when it comes to groundstrokes, you’ve long talked about those speed-accuracy tradeoffs. Might be harder to compare with the 2010s again, but maybe you can provide with a « in % » comparison from 2023 to 2026?
I don’t know, I just find it difficult to believe that, because 2011 Djokovic hit the ball softer, he’d be lost if we dropped him this current. In fact, I think he’d love having endless power to absorb.
By the way and to wrap up on Djokovic, while I question if the tour’s evolution is positive or not, his own evolution definitely was (apart from physically obviously) as aside from refining other skills, he’s managed to keep up with the tour in ball speeds (well, he still isn’t the hardest hitter but he’s stayed in the same ballpark) without any technical or material compromise (that I know of) and therefore without sacrificing consistency. How exactly? Being a GOAT helps, I guess.
1) I have been thinking about it (just a general appetite for aggression? Lighter and stiffer racquets? Lower tensions on average? post covid "shuttlecock" balls as Zverev described?) but I am looking to see if I can get a "stopwatch" kind of stat for "time taken from ball to reach opposite baseline" from various contact points.
2) I think on balance the level of the top 200 is more physical (faster, fitter) but the very top (say, top 15) are less consistent/lower top levels compared to the Big-3's chasing pack. I'll check in-% for these groups and report back
Djokovic 2011 would still be absolutely killing it I think; his movement and fitness and ability to break serve was insane, and as you point out, he would have just absorbed all that extra power (as he does now). Racquet wise he made a minor tweak going lighter (270 to 260 swingweight), extending racquet length, and opening up the string pattern (one less cross), but besides that he's simply increased aggression tolerance and serve accuracy to offset any decline in movement/rally tolerance and fitness.
Thank you for the last article, always food for thoughts.
I would have been quite delighted to have rather a dive on Jodar & Fils matches vs the current master than the final that was a blunder by Zverev.
In terms of knowledge translation, I do agree that Sinner has been the most impressive in this aspect and it is especially striking on the serve motion and its overall effectiveness, both in outcomes and "Tennis Insights" POV as he is now serving routinely over 210 km/h very close to the lines vs struggling to go past 200 km/h even 2 years and a half ago.
Against the field of players, he has built an impressive stronghold around his hold game and the number of complete lock-down serve is very impressive (0 break points played a whole match, happens every tournament now with him). And worse, he is still not as effective saving them as playing a vanilla service point (the rule of thumb is to outperform on serve on break point) !
he did overperform on break points through all of 2024 and 2025. as jeff sackmann has shown, that kind of overperformance is invariably followed by a regression to the mean. indeed, there is no historical precedent for a player doing as much better than expected on break points as sinner did for consecutive seasons. you're not supposed to have two outlier seasons in a row, but the italian did.
It will be easier to compare future generations to this era (2022/23 and onward) with performance ratings. Difficult to compare 2026 to 10-20 years ago without the Tennis Insights
The chart at the top of all the tournaments Sinner is winning is screaming at us. I know that Federer had a similar period of dominance. But he did it with variety, against a variety of opponents.
Then Nadal came along and we had a rivalry. Think about the match were Stakovsky came in on everything and won a match against Federer at Wimbledon.
Sinner is great but I find watching him boring. It is not his fault. The conditions are such that he can dominate on every surface playing the same way.
I am trying to be optimistic here but the more I watch, the more I just switch to YouTube to watch old highlights.
Hey, great piece as usual. It’s giving me headaches just to imagine the tradeoffs any player has to deal with when playing Sinner, the mix of raw power and tactical versatility needed just seems to be insane. Which makes me wonder, if you had to pick someone - outside of Carlos obviously - who "has it in him", would you have some candidates ?
Your central topic is development, so these comments and questions seem appropriate:
I'll use Djokovic as a recent example because I have a good sense of his evolution. Djokovic in his physical prime (2011-2019) was undoubtedly superior physically to the later version of Djokovic. But I think it is evident that Djokovic in recent years is much more skilled than he used to be; his serve and his volleys in particular are better than they were in 2011 or 2015 or 2019. And we know that in general he is hitting the ball harder now than he was ten years ago. If, hypothetically, 2011 Djokovic played against 2023 Djokovic, is the former's physical advantage really enough to make up for the latter being more skilled in virtually every way?
I think the young Federer was superior to old Federer, but it can't be denied that Federer's backhand from 2017 to 2019 was infinitely better than it was prior to those years.
When talking about Nadal, people usually say he was best on clay in 2008 or 2010. Is this really true? He was without question physically superior in those years, but wouldn't he have been hitting harder later in his career?
I can make this matter more general. What do we mean when we say, "x is better than y?" Do we mean, "x would beat y in a match?" Or do we mean something else—when we are talking about (versions of) players from different eras? Players are hitting the ball harder than ever now; would Djokovic from 2011 be able to handle the pace of Sinner and Alcaraz?
When I watch older matches (think before the early 2000s), I often struggle to appreciate what is happening because I keep thinking, "these players would be obliterated if they played today." What are we talking about when we say that a match played in the 1980s was excellent? Are we referring to some transcendent standard of excellence? (I happen to think that we are, but it doesn't have so much to do with who would win a particular match.)
I also have a few thoughts about Sinner and Alcaraz's domination. People have been saying for over a year that the ATP is boring because Sinner and Alcaraz win everything. Yet I don't have the sense that anyone claimed Federer and Nadal's domination was boring. My suspicion is that when people say, "Sinner and Alcaraz's reign is boring," what they mean is, "Sinner is boring."
I can't help but feel that the gap between Federer and Nadal and their contemporaries from 2005-2007 was larger than the gap between Sinner and Alcaraz and their contemporaries, at least with respect to level. When I look at the year-end rankings in the middle of the 2000s, I always think that Zverev, Medvedev, Draper, Musetti, and perhaps some others are vastly superior to Roddick, Davydenko, Blake, etc. I am defining gap with respect to best level; how would you define it?
This is such a great comment, James! I personally find it impossible to compare across eras, I think most people feel the same. Just have to appreciate the tennis of the time in its time. I was watching a Jimmy Connors match a while ago and even though it was slower than the matches of today, I just marveled at his consistency going to the net. I never saw him when he was dominant, and it was just super cool seeing how differently the game was played.
I was certainly tired of Fed's singular dominance, grateful when Rafa came in. We need Carlos back, stat! Sinner by himself is super boring, feels like he's never going to lose again...
As a biologist, thank you for not misunderstanding Darwin. And as an Italian, we have a saying that drives home the difference between words-knowledge and action a bit harder than the English "easier said than done." It's "tra il dire e il fare c'è di mezzo il mare" - "between Saying and Doing there's a sea." And some are indeed unbelievably talented at quickly navigating that sea.
Last week I came across the Judge's 'thread of order' quote and had a bit of a 'Leo pointing at screen in Once Upon A Time In Hollywood' moment.
Your commentary on improvement rings true across every sport and is perhaps what is most impressive about the best athletes in the world. I think of Lebron James and his Olajuwon-sessions in Miami to improve his post up game and then his improved three pointer in his second stint in Cleveland. Steph Curry traded some quickness for width towards the end of the 2010s as defenses put large defenders on him to bump him off his spots. It's no coincidence in my eyes that the best athletes at improving in these ways also have some of the best mental games in the world.
Agreed bill, the best athletes are able to adapt to whatever the sport asks of them. The Nadal's and Ronaldo's and Curry's of the world would be great at whatever they put their mind to I think (Curry and Nadal kind of prove this with their elite golf games)
Very true, not to forget Nadal could have probably been a profession footballer (I mean soccer for americans). It always amazes me to look at the clip from the charity game where he scored 6 goals against one of the best goalkeeper of its generation. It's also funny to see he is right footed, as he is only a lefty on the tennis court..
Right handed too.
I can't help but laugh at that speed/spin chart between the three Frenchmen!! Gaston, Mannarino, and Fils are from the same country but might as well be from different planets. FYI, Adrian and Arthur have only played once, back in 2023 on the grass courts of Hertogenbosch, and Mr Slow Ball beat him! 7-6(1), 6-4. God bless the most talented 3.5 player ever to turn professional (I kid, of course, AdMan is a sui generis super talent!). Hugo and Arthur have never played each other in singles, not yet!
there's definitely a place for the "compact backswing taking the ball early", but it's starting to get overtaken by "compact but whippy" strokes like a sinner forehand
What an interesting piece! I wonder if this progression in groundstrokes speeds is mainly a matter regarding the last 5-8 years or if it's been constant over time since tennis's new groundstroke power driven era started in the early 2000s. If the latter happened to be the case I guess we can expect 86 mph forehands to become the average 10 years from now lmao, prime Fonseca is going to be insane.
I also question wether this progression has been reflected in serve speeds too, we know they're currently far higher when compared to the early 2000s but what about the 2023 numbers? Is the 2026 average higher?
Serve speeds hhad an uptick from 2016 to 2019 (114mph to 117mph), and were steady through covid and have increased again from 117mph in 2023 to over 119 mph now.
ace rates have been steady though. There's a graph of this near the bottom of this piece:
https://hughclarke.substack.com/p/technical-weaknesses-with-the-tsitsipas
Thanks for the answer! Considering the data you presented I honestly expect the ATP to slow down the courts/balls in the next 10 or so years.
Most casual fans hate servebots who can't keep a longer, more exciting baseline exchange going, yet tennis unfortunately seems to be moving towards an even more serve +1 dominated era. Slowing the game down would probably be the simplest solution
I definitely think there's been a lot of calls for more variety now that every hardcourt the last few years has played around 'medium-fast' and even places like Indian Wells lost some of it's slowness this year. Clay court tennis is probably the best viewing experience now because of the serve +1 excellence of most players now.
How do we create courts which are fast but reward precision more than power?
I think that like in golf with the "rollback" topic, tennis really has to have a reflexion about racquet size and technology. The thing I admire most with the players is their skill to hit dead center a ball in whatever position.
I remember vividly some slow-mos from Nadal at RG hitting winning running forehands with the frame in his final vs Wavrinka in 2017 and I didn't like it.
When I see highlights from the 90's, the most striking thing is that it is easy to spot a perfectly hit shot from a not centered shot. The differences are obvious and evidendly, Sampras and Agassi shone in that aspect (especially Sampras when he had time to perfectly set up a forehand, the pay-off was amazing).
Lucky enough, I saw JS almost everyear at the FO over the last 4 years and honestly, he is one of the cleanest hitter on the Tour and I thought better than Alcaraz overall.
Hi Hugh,
A nice analysis as always - that final did not warrant a full writeup and I’m glad you went another way.
Some thoughts on that forehand speed evolution :
1) I think it would be interesting to dive deeper into the WHY. I think material changes are the biggest factor, but that we may overstate its importance compared to a self-feeding trend towards more agression. There’s definitely been a shift from the 10s to the 20s, but for example when comparing 2023 to 2026, has the whole tour (but Zverev, lol) undergone a technological revolution? Am I clueless on how often players tweak their material?
2) Also, I think an even more interesting question is whether we are facing evolution or progress. The game is undeniably changing, but is it better than 10 years ago because ball speeds have improved?
Serving is a bit of a separate issue and I guess more speed is an invaluable good, but when it comes to groundstrokes, you’ve long talked about those speed-accuracy tradeoffs. Might be harder to compare with the 2010s again, but maybe you can provide with a « in % » comparison from 2023 to 2026?
I don’t know, I just find it difficult to believe that, because 2011 Djokovic hit the ball softer, he’d be lost if we dropped him this current. In fact, I think he’d love having endless power to absorb.
By the way and to wrap up on Djokovic, while I question if the tour’s evolution is positive or not, his own evolution definitely was (apart from physically obviously) as aside from refining other skills, he’s managed to keep up with the tour in ball speeds (well, he still isn’t the hardest hitter but he’s stayed in the same ballpark) without any technical or material compromise (that I know of) and therefore without sacrificing consistency. How exactly? Being a GOAT helps, I guess.
1) I have been thinking about it (just a general appetite for aggression? Lighter and stiffer racquets? Lower tensions on average? post covid "shuttlecock" balls as Zverev described?) but I am looking to see if I can get a "stopwatch" kind of stat for "time taken from ball to reach opposite baseline" from various contact points.
2) I think on balance the level of the top 200 is more physical (faster, fitter) but the very top (say, top 15) are less consistent/lower top levels compared to the Big-3's chasing pack. I'll check in-% for these groups and report back
Djokovic 2011 would still be absolutely killing it I think; his movement and fitness and ability to break serve was insane, and as you point out, he would have just absorbed all that extra power (as he does now). Racquet wise he made a minor tweak going lighter (270 to 260 swingweight), extending racquet length, and opening up the string pattern (one less cross), but besides that he's simply increased aggression tolerance and serve accuracy to offset any decline in movement/rally tolerance and fitness.
Thank you for the last article, always food for thoughts.
I would have been quite delighted to have rather a dive on Jodar & Fils matches vs the current master than the final that was a blunder by Zverev.
In terms of knowledge translation, I do agree that Sinner has been the most impressive in this aspect and it is especially striking on the serve motion and its overall effectiveness, both in outcomes and "Tennis Insights" POV as he is now serving routinely over 210 km/h very close to the lines vs struggling to go past 200 km/h even 2 years and a half ago.
Against the field of players, he has built an impressive stronghold around his hold game and the number of complete lock-down serve is very impressive (0 break points played a whole match, happens every tournament now with him). And worse, he is still not as effective saving them as playing a vanilla service point (the rule of thumb is to outperform on serve on break point) !
he did overperform on break points through all of 2024 and 2025. as jeff sackmann has shown, that kind of overperformance is invariably followed by a regression to the mean. indeed, there is no historical precedent for a player doing as much better than expected on break points as sinner did for consecutive seasons. you're not supposed to have two outlier seasons in a row, but the italian did.
It will be easier to compare future generations to this era (2022/23 and onward) with performance ratings. Difficult to compare 2026 to 10-20 years ago without the Tennis Insights
The chart at the top of all the tournaments Sinner is winning is screaming at us. I know that Federer had a similar period of dominance. But he did it with variety, against a variety of opponents.
Then Nadal came along and we had a rivalry. Think about the match were Stakovsky came in on everything and won a match against Federer at Wimbledon.
Sinner is great but I find watching him boring. It is not his fault. The conditions are such that he can dominate on every surface playing the same way.
I am trying to be optimistic here but the more I watch, the more I just switch to YouTube to watch old highlights.
Hey, great piece as usual. It’s giving me headaches just to imagine the tradeoffs any player has to deal with when playing Sinner, the mix of raw power and tactical versatility needed just seems to be insane. Which makes me wonder, if you had to pick someone - outside of Carlos obviously - who "has it in him", would you have some candidates ?