The Battle for Number 1
Nadal. Djokovic. Zverev. Tsitsipas.
For the first time in nearly two decades, the ATP number 1 ranking is no longer a foregone conclusion. Since 2004 it has been a four-horse race between Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, and Roger Federer, with Andy Murray a well-deserved member as the ‘gatekeepers’ of men’s tennis. However, a combination of war sanctions, Covid rules, injuries, and emerging talent has the top slots on shaky ground this year. Medvedev finally reached the summit in February, albeit briefly, and more shuffles could be on the cards over the coming months.
Incredibly, world number 3 Alexander Zverev—yet to win a grand slam and titleless in 2022—is within striking distance of the number one ranking (< 1000 pts). Djokovic’s anti-vax stance has seen him banished from the three biggest tournaments of 2022 so far (Australian Open, Indian Wells, and Miami) and he looks rusty on the clay with a Channel Slam to defend in June/July. Daniil Medvedev, who reached the summit of number 1 for a three-week blip, is missing the entire clay season after hernia surgery and is now banned from Wimbledon due to Russia’s war in Ukraine. Rafael Nadal, who dominated at the start of the year, has been sidelined for a month with a fractured rib. Rounding out the top-5 is Stefanos Tsitsipas, who defended his Monte Carlo title last week, but has not been in spectacular form this year and has plenty of points to defend through to Roland Garros. A look at the top-10 in the live ranking1, alongside the points they must defend for the remainder of the year, is shown below.
A few thoughts on each player:
Djokovic. 2000 points gone from Australia through deportation of all things. Now struggling for match fitness coming into a whopping 4850 point Channel Slam defence. I suspect the runway is just long enough for him to find the form that will help him put in good campaigns, but a repeat looks unlikely at this stage. This small 250 in Belgrade is crucial for match fitness and confidence right now.
Medvedev, with his injury woes and Wimbledon banishment, is essentially out of action until the US hardcourt swing, and he will forfeit ~900 points before he comes back to the huge task of defending 3360 points (including his US Open title). When he’s fit he is a deserved top seed—especially on hard courts—but I don’t see him backing up that many points coming back from surgery, and he might tumble outside the top-8 if he doesn’t find form quickly upon his return.
Zverev is close to snatching the number 1 ranking. Although he has a Madrid title and a French Open semifinal to defend in the coming weeks, the two players above him are sidelined (Medvedev) or have even more points to defend (Djokovic), so it’s still on the cards that after Wimbledon Zverev is the new number 1. He hasn’t been in great form and has shown little progress in areas of his game that hold him back, namely, the service reliability and a commitment to attacking with his forehand. He is still too passive and, ironically, it is his movement ability for his height that hurts his game; he feels like he can win by just defending 3-meters behind the baseline. A lot of the time he can, but he needs to start attacking in big moments to win big matches, something that has not materialized once in slams.
Nadal has the most bullish case for a tilt at the number 1 spot. He has a relatively lean clay season to defend by his standards, and a clean runway to amass points for the second half of the year should he remain healthy. I assume slams are his priority for the remainder of his career, so I won’t be surprised to see him pass on chasing the number 1 mantle post-US Open and instead look to save his body for next year’s French Open. Based on what I’ve seen from the top guys in the first weeks of the clay season, Nadal is my strong favourite for the French title once again.
Tsitsipas has a big clay season to defend, but he’s had the perfect start in defending Monte Carlo. Even if he doesn’t do a repeat at Roland Garros this year, the Greek lost first-round at Wimbledon and struggled toward the end of the year with his elbow injury, so I can see him having a genuine run toward number 1 if he backs up his clay exploits. I still think he needs to develop the slice backhand and chip return if he is going to be a consistent threat on hard courts and grass. Tiafoe exposed this in the first round of Wimbledon last year, and it is something that I think he has been working on with Enqvist.
Berrettini went under the knife three weeks ago for right-hand surgery and will drop all 3000 of his summer points with an unknown return date. He will drop outside the top-20 but his Australian Open points will keep him seeded should he return late in the year.
Ruud capitalised on the slow Miami conditions to post his best hardcourt result last month, and he comes into the clay season as an outside favourite for the clay Masters. I still think his backhand is a major weakness against the top players, and he has a lot of points to defend for the rest of the year, mainly in a slew of 250s. I think he will have his sights set on the slams and bigger tournaments this year, so he may offset that with a better French Open showing.
Rublev has had a very Rublev start to the season; he’s won some 250 and 500s, but has failed to win anything bigger. He has a game that wins him a lot of matches against the field but he needs to add some variety to make that top-5 step. His second serve is a liability and his backhand can break down against the best players. I can’t see him climbing higher this year but by all accounts he is a very hard worker and he will be looking to go deep in a slam this year for the first time.
Auger Aliassime finally won his maiden title this year in Rotterdam (now 1-9 in finals). He’s done well in slams and has the opportunity to make some more ground this clay season, but he just doesn’t look that sharp yet. Last week he lost to Musetti—not a bad loss on clay by any means—and struggled against Taberner yesterday. While his game looks like it could be good on clay (and he has made finals on clay), he keeps struggling and has a big Wimbledon and US Open campaign to defend. Under Toni Nadal’s watchful eye, can he make a good Roland Garros showing?
Norrie broke into the top-10 last month and just keeps on winning. His combination of flat backhands and spinny lefty forehands makes him a tricky prospect, and he is one of the toughest mental players on tour. He posted consistent results at the smaller tournaments over the summer, and I think that is his wheelhouse. Can he go deep in a slam? He will have the seeding this year.
A look at the race sees an interesting ladder after nearly a third of the season.
Currently just outside the top-10, Alcaraz should be fishing in a barrel for the rest of the year. He has an ATP250 and a US Open quarterfinal to defend, but outside of that there is enormous potential for him to really continue the climb if he continues with the form that has won him an ATP500 and 1000 already this year. He is probably better on hardcourts than clay at this stage, but his first title came on clay last year in Umag (250) so a decent season that sees him climb inside the top-8 by Wimbledon is not too much of a stretch. Can he get to number 1 this year? I don’t think so, but top-5 is certainly possible.
Alcaraz has few points to defend for 2022. Fritz has been in career-best form this year and won his maiden Masters 1000 in Indian Wells last month. He’s been a top US hope for years now and he looks set on finally fulfilling that promise. He even made the quarterfinals of Monte Carlo last week on his weakest surface. I don’t really see Fritz as a regular top-5 player—his movement isn’t amazing and he lacks a bit of variety—but of all the top players he has the least points to defend from here: only 795. Last year he lost in the second-round at the French and US Open, and third round at Wimbledon, and didn’t reach a final in any event for the rest of the year.
Fritz has a great chance to crack the top-10 this year.
Will we see another new number 1 in 2022? Tsitsipas and Zverev are both knocking on the door.