To be completely honest, when Alcaraz (and maybe Djokovic) isn't in the tournament, the whole thing lacks a little energy and excitement. A Sinner/Zverev matchup was about as interesting as I thought it would be. Never doubted the outcome for a second.
Carlos' game is a good antidote to Sinner's Neo-Novak and Novak, at least, has the generational component to add drama. Let's hope some of the younger guys -- Fils, Fonseca -- can make a leap or two forward.
Shame on alcaraz fans always brings him for no reason he failed to reach final three times . Medvedev,fritz and Zverev played sinner in final because alcaraz failed. Alcaraz can also play if he is better than these three guys.
It's an expression of personal taste on the quality of play and aesthetic performance of the final, which was quite bad on both counts.
Zverev is a bad watch. So is Fritz. Medvedev is better because his game is so idiosyncratic, but can also be a grind. Carlos is the most visually exciting player in the game right now that regularly contends for major titles. When he doesn't make the semis of a major, there's some air let out of the tournament for me.
Zverev earned to play final so does fritz and medvedev. Alcaraz played ruud in final alcaraz is no different. The other players who can challenge sinner in final are rublev and alex deminaur. These are top eight novak is injured and will not be playing for some time. Alcaraz cannot compete with these top eight players in hard court.
Sinner is number one seed he can face alcaraz in semifinal or final. Alcaraz has to win from these top eight . Alcaraz was defeated by botic you may call it fluke but he was defeated by Zverev,medvedev and djokovic who are all better hard players than him.
Again, I'm not talking about whether or not something happened or whether or not someone deserved to win. I'm not even talking about who may or may not be the better player. I'm talking about the quality of play and level of interest I have in the tournament after Carlos went out in the quarters.
I am saying from top eight in final these are the guys sinner has not faced he faced three best from top eight. There are not many people in current tour only djokovic and tsitsipas are left who have played final and did not face sinner in final.
-his record against Novak is one win less than Sinner's
-Carlos' title record by surface: 8 (clay), 5 (hard), 3 (grass)
-Sinner's title record by surface: 17 (hard), 1 (clay), 1 (grass)
Is Sinner the better hardcourt player? Yes. Is he less versatile and/or productive on other surfaces, according to titles? Personally, I don't think so...but one could make that argument.
Not an expectation. Just a qualitative observation of the tournament when he's not in it. That's subjective. It's just an opinion.
And he's 3-5 against Novak, 2 of which were in the finals of a major. That's not consistently losing. Besides, Novak and Sinner are 4-4, one game difference in head-2-head.
Same reason why I never looked forward to the Novak-Andy matches...which were definitely worse than the Novak-Rafa matches (though to be honest, I never really enjoyed those, either -- way too many neutral rallies). The stylistic difference is what makes it interesting, which is why Fed was always the spark. Fed-Novak, Fed-Rafa, Fed-Andy -- I miss those.
Which makes me wonder -- what about Fed-Carlos matches? Or would they be just too much together? We'll never know. :)
I feel as if we have not seen a recent Sinner-Alcaraz encounter. The last encounter was in October 2024 and was close when Sinner lost and I feel as though sinner's rate of improvement has been sky-high so part of me thinks that Sinner at this level will blast through Alcaraz as well.
Not sure what the court speed was in Beijing, but on medium-fast surfaces I'd agree. Though I'd hit the breaks on it when you consider how focused Carlos has seemed when playing Sinner.
Next opportunity to see them against each other is Rotterdam.
Beijing was on the slow side. (0.90 rating) If the AO25 was anything like the past 4 years, the speed this year should be faster than what Beijing 2024 was.
Great point on Zverev's meek net game - I ran out of characters on Twitter when I did a brief rally analysis of the match but wanted to point out that Sinner was +14 in passing shots last night - 7 each on FH and BH. Didn't make a single error. Simply no respite for Sascha, neither at the back of the court nor at the net.
Shame of it is if he approached better his size and wingspan would be formidable at the net. But then successful net approaches largely rely on forehands.
Zverev tactics were slightly off should not have approached net too often . He lost to thiem and thiem also hit so many passing shots and against alcaraz he missed volleys on 5th set. He does not need to fix his forehand better will be to work on volleys that is easier aspect. With his big serve he could easily serve and volley.
What a great analysis. Found this article from reddit, and this is honestly a gem.
This sentence is key: 'Zverev, despite being down two sets and a break, remained in counterpunching mode. There are simply no teeth to this forehand in big moments.'
Zverev’s big upside is that at least he realises where he is and that he can improve unlike tsitsipas. He has dramatically improved his serve, let’s see if he can do it with the forehand.
In what ways could he fix his forehand, in both the short and long term? It seems fundamentally flawed and I'd argue that will be a much more difficult endeavor compared to fixing his serve. Even with the serve, it took him more than a year to get it to where it is now.
Agreed. All players seem open to the idea of altering or improving the technique of their serve. Changing a forehand happens over a longer period of time. Not impossible. There are lots of Fed/Nadal fh evolution videos out there. But it doesn't happen overnight.
I do find it interesting that Zverev switched to an eastern grip. I did not know that. Grip changes are pretty dramatic.
Re: the commentators picking up on Zverv' weight going backwards on forehands
World feed commentating during the AO for singles, doubles and juniors was excellent all around. Prepared, interesting and unafraid to talk about technique and tactics for fear of leaving audiences behind.
I listened on Radio 5 Live and Annabel Croft and Pat Cash and Russell Fuller were very unimpressed with the quality of the match, and especially Zverev’s looping forehand.
After "Death of a Forehand", you wrote an in-depth series on footwork. And you commented that you would write an in-depth analysis on backhands. I love these deep discussions and would love to learn more about backhand technique, if possible.
Without the possible Sinner doping suspension, it would feel like Sinner and Alcaraz are going to snatch up all of the slams for the next several years. They have won the last 5 grand slams and Djokovic has been looking human in slams during the last year. Sinner is just too good on hardcourts right now, and Alcaraz is great on clay and grass.
Assuming Sinner gets suspended and misses the US Open, as an American fan, I think it becomes a decent chance for one of the American men to win a major for the first time in 22 years.
Sinner was just so impressive. He holds the baseline so well off both sides, and just squeezes his opponent with so much pace, taking away their time. And that injection of pace on the forehand, which is Fed like to me, is just a dose of shock and awe to his opponents.
Great article - the 9+ shot length statistic has been the story of Zs career. I vividly remember the 2021 uso sf, where it felt he wanted to beat novak at his own game and tried to prolong rallies, and ended up losing. Do you think his deference to counterpunching will be something that can work in a slam final? I cant think of a player who won with that much of a reliance on that style of play (some say andy, but he knew how to inject fire on both wings when it mattered)
Thanks for the write-up, always interesting reading about all the little details you pick up. When I watched that tie-break 2-2 point I knew you'd remark on that - it really tells Zverev's forehand-under-pressure story, doesn't it? Just like you wrote in the preview. In an originally neutral rally, he hits a short floaty one, then a chop (!) and then an entirely unredeemable loopy error. From Sinner's PoV it's a forehand piñata.
One thing that surprised me is the audio of the exchange with the umpire (at the 4-3 break in the first set) regarding his stringing requests and his issues with the delays. Does he really string at 16/17 kg (or rather 15.9/16.9, which seems like pointless precision)? That seems as low as you get without entering Mannarino territory; is it a regular thing or an "Australian soirée with old Dunlops" adjustment? I wondered if it was a speech emphasis issue (50.9/60.9 lbs instead ??) but that seems too weird as an alternative explanation. The TV commentator confessed to be "confused".
The extra power probably helps with slow swings on the groundies but at the same time it's probably easier to lose directional control if you have to slow down your strokes to dial down the power in a tight situation (the harder you swing, the more the outgoing ball aligns with the swing path and viceversa). As a reference point, Mannarino does not maneuver his racquet as loosely - he works within a much tighter space.
Maybe his forehand style and set-up just don't provide enough "degrees of freedom" to fully control the strike. In a more conventional gesture you can adjust different elements (speed, angle-of-attack, body/arm/wrist speed) to control the trajectory of the ball. It feels like he mostly swings faster or slower, since his wrist action is tied to wherever the forearm goes. So if he's not timing well, either he hits hard and has decent directional control but poor depth control or he slows down and loses the directions. His backhand does not have direction issues since he has the extra degrees of freedom provided by the second hand to "linearize" the swing path around the point of contact.
PS: for the record, I'm not against forehand chops, Mirra Andreeva has a really nice one she frequently uses when pulled wide on clay to reset the rally.
Watching the match my only thought was: how will Sinner’s extreme pushes to the side work on clay, where it will be harder to push back and regain position? I guess that’s where the adjustment to sliding comes in, but it just gives me an inkling of why he might be less dominant on there. (More fool me if he goes on to win it now.)
Zverev got minibreak in tiebreak he was not clutch in serving he missed two first serves. Sinner position did not make much difference Zverev was 0-30 because of his old rackets. Zverev played well in final it was not like when nadal defeated federer 6-1,6-3,6-0.
In the match preview, you noted Zverev appears to have weakened his grip slightly from Semi-western to Eastern, but (thinking out loud here) wouldn't strengthening it to be closer to a full Western have been a better match for his mechanics? He sets up with a lot of wrist flexion and a Western grip would allow him to make contact with less extension (i.e. one less moving part), no?
Also, as good as the Zverev BH is, I don't know that he'll ever be able to hug the baseline and trade with incoming pace (like the kind Sinner will provide) given the mechanics of that stroke. He sets up with the racket super high, at times even a touch inverted, and a big shoulder turn, before unleasing it. Contrast that with Sinner and his low, outside set-up and quick flip.
Zverev's strokes are made for counter punching and I don't know that at this point in his career he'll be able to change that against the elite players (or even that he sould given he is number two in the world). The tiniest of margins at the top!
To be completely honest, when Alcaraz (and maybe Djokovic) isn't in the tournament, the whole thing lacks a little energy and excitement. A Sinner/Zverev matchup was about as interesting as I thought it would be. Never doubted the outcome for a second.
Carlos' game is a good antidote to Sinner's Neo-Novak and Novak, at least, has the generational component to add drama. Let's hope some of the younger guys -- Fils, Fonseca -- can make a leap or two forward.
Shame on alcaraz fans always brings him for no reason he failed to reach final three times . Medvedev,fritz and Zverev played sinner in final because alcaraz failed. Alcaraz can also play if he is better than these three guys.
It's an expression of personal taste on the quality of play and aesthetic performance of the final, which was quite bad on both counts.
Zverev is a bad watch. So is Fritz. Medvedev is better because his game is so idiosyncratic, but can also be a grind. Carlos is the most visually exciting player in the game right now that regularly contends for major titles. When he doesn't make the semis of a major, there's some air let out of the tournament for me.
Zverev earned to play final so does fritz and medvedev. Alcaraz played ruud in final alcaraz is no different. The other players who can challenge sinner in final are rublev and alex deminaur. These are top eight novak is injured and will not be playing for some time. Alcaraz cannot compete with these top eight players in hard court.
1. You're missing the entire point of my post, not sure if that's intentional or not.
2. Sinner's record against Rublev and de Minaur is a combined 16-3 for Sinner.
-against Rublev: 6-3
-against de Minaur....: 10-0
3. Sinner's record against Carlos is 4-6.
-5 of Carlos' wins are on hardcourt: Beijing, IW x2, US Open and Paris Bercy.
Is Sinner the better player on hardcourt right now? Absolutely, but to say Carlos cannot compete with the top 8 on this surface is kind of silly.
Sinner is number one seed he can face alcaraz in semifinal or final. Alcaraz has to win from these top eight . Alcaraz was defeated by botic you may call it fluke but he was defeated by Zverev,medvedev and djokovic who are all better hard players than him.
Again, I'm not talking about whether or not something happened or whether or not someone deserved to win. I'm not even talking about who may or may not be the better player. I'm talking about the quality of play and level of interest I have in the tournament after Carlos went out in the quarters.
I am saying from top eight in final these are the guys sinner has not faced he faced three best from top eight. There are not many people in current tour only djokovic and tsitsipas are left who have played final and did not face sinner in final.
0-3
Well, I do, which is why I made the post. Also, the ATP site is a keystroke away....Carlos doesn't lose to everyone...
16 titles
4 majors
79% winning average
He's won some, yes. Funny way to put it.
-his record against Novak is one win less than Sinner's
-Carlos' title record by surface: 8 (clay), 5 (hard), 3 (grass)
-Sinner's title record by surface: 17 (hard), 1 (clay), 1 (grass)
Is Sinner the better hardcourt player? Yes. Is he less versatile and/or productive on other surfaces, according to titles? Personally, I don't think so...but one could make that argument.
Not an expectation. Just a qualitative observation of the tournament when he's not in it. That's subjective. It's just an opinion.
And he's 3-5 against Novak, 2 of which were in the finals of a major. That's not consistently losing. Besides, Novak and Sinner are 4-4, one game difference in head-2-head.
Same reason why I never looked forward to the Novak-Andy matches...which were definitely worse than the Novak-Rafa matches (though to be honest, I never really enjoyed those, either -- way too many neutral rallies). The stylistic difference is what makes it interesting, which is why Fed was always the spark. Fed-Novak, Fed-Rafa, Fed-Andy -- I miss those.
Which makes me wonder -- what about Fed-Carlos matches? Or would they be just too much together? We'll never know. :)
Carlos-Dimitrov is a glimpse.
I just looked up their H2H, 3-2 in Carlos's favor, but Grigor with two wins the last two times they've played! Late bloomer. :)
I feel as if we have not seen a recent Sinner-Alcaraz encounter. The last encounter was in October 2024 and was close when Sinner lost and I feel as though sinner's rate of improvement has been sky-high so part of me thinks that Sinner at this level will blast through Alcaraz as well.
Not sure what the court speed was in Beijing, but on medium-fast surfaces I'd agree. Though I'd hit the breaks on it when you consider how focused Carlos has seemed when playing Sinner.
Next opportunity to see them against each other is Rotterdam.
Sinner will not be playing Rotterdam
Sinner playing Doha and probably Dubai. Carlos, too.
that has occurred to me.
Beijing was on the slow side. (0.90 rating) If the AO25 was anything like the past 4 years, the speed this year should be faster than what Beijing 2024 was.
Link: https://tennisabstract.com/reports/atp_surface_speed.html
Great point on Zverev's meek net game - I ran out of characters on Twitter when I did a brief rally analysis of the match but wanted to point out that Sinner was +14 in passing shots last night - 7 each on FH and BH. Didn't make a single error. Simply no respite for Sascha, neither at the back of the court nor at the net.
Shame of it is if he approached better his size and wingspan would be formidable at the net. But then successful net approaches largely rely on forehands.
Zverev tactics were slightly off should not have approached net too often . He lost to thiem and thiem also hit so many passing shots and against alcaraz he missed volleys on 5th set. He does not need to fix his forehand better will be to work on volleys that is easier aspect. With his big serve he could easily serve and volley.
think Zverev also struggles to get down quickly because of his size to volley well enough.
sinner is so precise on passing shots, esp from forehand. impossible to approach against him
What a great analysis. Found this article from reddit, and this is honestly a gem.
This sentence is key: 'Zverev, despite being down two sets and a break, remained in counterpunching mode. There are simply no teeth to this forehand in big moments.'
Zverev’s big upside is that at least he realises where he is and that he can improve unlike tsitsipas. He has dramatically improved his serve, let’s see if he can do it with the forehand.
In what ways could he fix his forehand, in both the short and long term? It seems fundamentally flawed and I'd argue that will be a much more difficult endeavor compared to fixing his serve. Even with the serve, it took him more than a year to get it to where it is now.
He could do the same thing Thiem did where a coach feeds him balls in quick succession so he is forced to simplify the motion.
Agreed. All players seem open to the idea of altering or improving the technique of their serve. Changing a forehand happens over a longer period of time. Not impossible. There are lots of Fed/Nadal fh evolution videos out there. But it doesn't happen overnight.
I do find it interesting that Zverev switched to an eastern grip. I did not know that. Grip changes are pretty dramatic.
Re: the commentators picking up on Zverv' weight going backwards on forehands
World feed commentating during the AO for singles, doubles and juniors was excellent all around. Prepared, interesting and unafraid to talk about technique and tactics for fear of leaving audiences behind.
I listened on Radio 5 Live and Annabel Croft and Pat Cash and Russell Fuller were very unimpressed with the quality of the match, and especially Zverev’s looping forehand.
Great read as always. If you had a chance to work on Zverev's forehand with him, what would you change technically?
Will show that in a new forehand article I'm working on!
Can we work on the backhand article first?
Which one? I remember you commenting in another piece, or was it related to a specific question on another backhand piece?
After "Death of a Forehand", you wrote an in-depth series on footwork. And you commented that you would write an in-depth analysis on backhands. I love these deep discussions and would love to learn more about backhand technique, if possible.
Ok, and have you read the backhand pieces already?
one-handed piece: https://hughclarke.substack.com/p/the-one-handed-backhand
first two-handed piece: https://hughclarke.substack.com/p/the-two-handed-backhand
second two-handed piece: https://hughclarke.substack.com/p/the-two-handed-backhandagain
Funnily enough I do have a two-handed piece that talks about grips again.
Without the possible Sinner doping suspension, it would feel like Sinner and Alcaraz are going to snatch up all of the slams for the next several years. They have won the last 5 grand slams and Djokovic has been looking human in slams during the last year. Sinner is just too good on hardcourts right now, and Alcaraz is great on clay and grass.
Assuming Sinner gets suspended and misses the US Open, as an American fan, I think it becomes a decent chance for one of the American men to win a major for the first time in 22 years.
Sinner was just so impressive. He holds the baseline so well off both sides, and just squeezes his opponent with so much pace, taking away their time. And that injection of pace on the forehand, which is Fed like to me, is just a dose of shock and awe to his opponents.
Great article - the 9+ shot length statistic has been the story of Zs career. I vividly remember the 2021 uso sf, where it felt he wanted to beat novak at his own game and tried to prolong rallies, and ended up losing. Do you think his deference to counterpunching will be something that can work in a slam final? I cant think of a player who won with that much of a reliance on that style of play (some say andy, but he knew how to inject fire on both wings when it mattered)
Thanks for the write-up, always interesting reading about all the little details you pick up. When I watched that tie-break 2-2 point I knew you'd remark on that - it really tells Zverev's forehand-under-pressure story, doesn't it? Just like you wrote in the preview. In an originally neutral rally, he hits a short floaty one, then a chop (!) and then an entirely unredeemable loopy error. From Sinner's PoV it's a forehand piñata.
One thing that surprised me is the audio of the exchange with the umpire (at the 4-3 break in the first set) regarding his stringing requests and his issues with the delays. Does he really string at 16/17 kg (or rather 15.9/16.9, which seems like pointless precision)? That seems as low as you get without entering Mannarino territory; is it a regular thing or an "Australian soirée with old Dunlops" adjustment? I wondered if it was a speech emphasis issue (50.9/60.9 lbs instead ??) but that seems too weird as an alternative explanation. The TV commentator confessed to be "confused".
The extra power probably helps with slow swings on the groundies but at the same time it's probably easier to lose directional control if you have to slow down your strokes to dial down the power in a tight situation (the harder you swing, the more the outgoing ball aligns with the swing path and viceversa). As a reference point, Mannarino does not maneuver his racquet as loosely - he works within a much tighter space.
Maybe his forehand style and set-up just don't provide enough "degrees of freedom" to fully control the strike. In a more conventional gesture you can adjust different elements (speed, angle-of-attack, body/arm/wrist speed) to control the trajectory of the ball. It feels like he mostly swings faster or slower, since his wrist action is tied to wherever the forearm goes. So if he's not timing well, either he hits hard and has decent directional control but poor depth control or he slows down and loses the directions. His backhand does not have direction issues since he has the extra degrees of freedom provided by the second hand to "linearize" the swing path around the point of contact.
PS: for the record, I'm not against forehand chops, Mirra Andreeva has a really nice one she frequently uses when pulled wide on clay to reset the rally.
Watching the match my only thought was: how will Sinner’s extreme pushes to the side work on clay, where it will be harder to push back and regain position? I guess that’s where the adjustment to sliding comes in, but it just gives me an inkling of why he might be less dominant on there. (More fool me if he goes on to win it now.)
Zverev got minibreak in tiebreak he was not clutch in serving he missed two first serves. Sinner position did not make much difference Zverev was 0-30 because of his old rackets. Zverev played well in final it was not like when nadal defeated federer 6-1,6-3,6-0.
Zverev could pull off a Madison Keyes. Hope he does.
Still waiting for the backhand piece.@_@
Great stuff Clarkey, couple thoughts...
In the match preview, you noted Zverev appears to have weakened his grip slightly from Semi-western to Eastern, but (thinking out loud here) wouldn't strengthening it to be closer to a full Western have been a better match for his mechanics? He sets up with a lot of wrist flexion and a Western grip would allow him to make contact with less extension (i.e. one less moving part), no?
Also, as good as the Zverev BH is, I don't know that he'll ever be able to hug the baseline and trade with incoming pace (like the kind Sinner will provide) given the mechanics of that stroke. He sets up with the racket super high, at times even a touch inverted, and a big shoulder turn, before unleasing it. Contrast that with Sinner and his low, outside set-up and quick flip.
Zverev's strokes are made for counter punching and I don't know that at this point in his career he'll be able to change that against the elite players (or even that he sould given he is number two in the world). The tiniest of margins at the top!