Sinner Inside In Forehand was Class in Shanghai. Made 96% of them with a 60% accuracy of within 1m of the sideline. His 52 week avg in those is 86% and 36% respectively - too good in exploiting a slightly more passive Djokovic.
One side note - I think of the last 5 Sinner-Djokovic matches, as a bit similar to the Djokovic-Federer matches in 2018-20. The younger player is 4-1 in those 5 matches and in the lottery matches (points won between 48%-52% for both), the younger player has won all of them.
Great text! Just wanted to point out one minor thing.
"Today the Serb is an aggressive baseliner with a pinpoint serve" - I guess by "pinpoint" you mean precise, but it sounds a bit ambiguous given that Djokovic uses a platform stance as opposed to pinpoint.
Hey Hugh, I’m sure you have other interesting ideas you’re mulling, but sometime during the off-season it would be cool to read a write up on Thiem’s career and the traits that made him able to hang with the big 3 during his prime. Where on the Nadal/Fed V do you think he played? Thanks for the great work, look forward to every piece.
Can you expand on the part about Djokovic exhibiting a more merry-go-round takeback during 2015-2016? What do you think led to that change, how much did it really benefit his game, and ultimately why did he change back to Ferris wheel? If memory serves, Djokovic's performance that one year was one of his most dominant and capped off by his achievement of the "Nole" slam.
His backswing was lower initially and got further back, with the strings more closed. Hard to know his reasoning — perhaps it was an initial attempt to counteract faster play.
Thank you for the analysis Hugh! I love your slow-mo side-by-side comparisons of groundstrokes.
I'm curious to know whether Sinner's consistent and high quality shotmaking over the past twelve months has invited you to reflect or shift your opinion at all over the biomechanical noisiness of merry-go-round vs ferris wheel groundstrokes.
It's possible I'm also misunderstanding your viewpoint as I'm a bit of a tennis newbie. Would appreciate your thoughts on this!
Yes absolutely. Sinner showing that he is having no issues with lower, more merry-go-round takebacks, although he still has a lot of wrist extension on the forehand which is another feature of great forehands. His running forehand where he steps across with the left leg is probably the best in the world now. I still think his backhand is less well-suited to changing direction compared to the djokovic push version. Perhaps it's time for an update to the death of a forehand series with some new thoughts
Oh I'd love a detailed update to that series. I bet your readers would too. I imagine there's a strong temptation to hold fast to publicly declared written opinions, so it would be a rare pleasure to read an analyst reflecting on / refining their views as new information comes in.
Wonderful analysis. You mention the Olympics - for me, who is a loooong way from being a Novak fan, the OG final was the best match of the year in terms of brilliant strategy and tactics: in those tiebreaks Djokovic *knew* “if I play it there, he will hit it there, and that will give me *this* chance.” It was the best execution of a plan I think I’ve ever seen; you could put it on a par with Ashe v Connors at Wimbledon 75 in terms of outthinking the opponent.
Arthur Ashe was a big game player - big serve, forehand, backhand. (For the day.). Jimmy was the Djokovic of the time - the best returner, who fed off the other person’s pace and redirected it and hung in there. He crushed Rosewall in Wimbledon 74 and everyone expected the same v Ashe.
But Ashe had a game plan: soft stuff. Slices. Wimbledon grass had a lower bounce then and he came out hitting slice serves and junk that drove Connors mad - especially to his low forehand, which was always a weakness. Occasionally he’d throw in a fast serve to surprise Connors. It was a huge upset. Four sets, done.
It is something how Sinner has the "shot quality" best forehand and backhand on Tour. I loved how you pointed out that point "where Sinner absolutely torches it. It is not even that far from Djokovic". I kinda of gasped that point when I was watching this Final. It's reminds me somewhat of a Federer injection of pace forehand. This video game ping pong version of tennis that Sinner plays is awesome inspiring. And on top of that, he has the Federer on court disposition out there. Nothing rattles him, he just has a very calm court confidence out there.
Where do you tell your charge to hit against him? Such a tough player to tactically approach now. This is why "data" isn't all that useful; almost doesn't matter if you don't have the level on the bread-and-butter four patterns like the top dogs.
The match vs Machac, a splendid example of this. Machac played great, a great mover with great shots off both sides. He reminds me movement wise of Misolav Mecir, The Big Cat. Yet he had really no avenue to a win.
Agree on Novak maybe playing a little too passive and through the middle, which allowed for some Sinner run arounds and overall a negative BH trade, but isn’t the fact that Djokovic now seems to need a super agressive baseline strategy (ideally in very fast conditions) to get a rally advantage worrying ?
The no-break-points in 6 sets stat is kinda telling of that rally advantage switching to Sinner, and at no point did I feel today that Sinner was particularly pushed today. He had control especially in the 2nd set. And it’s not just Sinner : to beat Alcaraz at Olympics, Novak didn’t produce a single break either but managed, in a BO3 format that helps that, to serve his way to two breakers where he worked his technical magic with some clutch running FHs, and by targetting that same Alcaraz’s running FH.
Today, he also managed to get to a breaker thanks to great serving, but then not only was the « tactical path » less clear than at Olympics as Sinner doesn’t have the same running FH « weakness », he was also betrayed by his own (a net error which felt like he couldn’t push off his right leg), and a longer rally where he just ended up late to a middle ball which Sinner put away easy.
And then Sinner ran away in the second. A scenario that Djokovic inflicted upon so many opponents, Sinner included. He had many circonstances going against him this season, but maybe it’s time to definitely say Sinner and Alcaraz have taken over as the guys with close-to-perfection technique for modern era and giant athleticism, with Novak having too much step(s) and fitness to make his technical gap to them shine like he did in most of 2023.
It is worrying, especially for BO5 formats. Not going to write him off yet, but age is really against him now, and Sinner and Alcaraz are coming into their own.
Thanks for this analysis! I'd only seen the highlights. Just watching service, it seemed to me Sinner began well, hit the gas toward the end of the first set, and continued to apply power until the end. His service was so highly calibrated. Which is perhaps a silly thing to say about tennis at this level but there didn't seem to be any dip in his subsequent service, either in accuracy or speed. Sinner stayed within the envelope beautifully.
Sinner Inside In Forehand was Class in Shanghai. Made 96% of them with a 60% accuracy of within 1m of the sideline. His 52 week avg in those is 86% and 36% respectively - too good in exploiting a slightly more passive Djokovic.
One side note - I think of the last 5 Sinner-Djokovic matches, as a bit similar to the Djokovic-Federer matches in 2018-20. The younger player is 4-1 in those 5 matches and in the lottery matches (points won between 48%-52% for both), the younger player has won all of them.
Great text! Just wanted to point out one minor thing.
"Today the Serb is an aggressive baseliner with a pinpoint serve" - I guess by "pinpoint" you mean precise, but it sounds a bit ambiguous given that Djokovic uses a platform stance as opposed to pinpoint.
Yes I guess that does make it ambiguous -- I've always called it a step-up serve so it didn't even enter my mind. I've changed it!
Hey Hugh, I’m sure you have other interesting ideas you’re mulling, but sometime during the off-season it would be cool to read a write up on Thiem’s career and the traits that made him able to hang with the big 3 during his prime. Where on the Nadal/Fed V do you think he played? Thanks for the great work, look forward to every piece.
Thanks DJ - maybe I should do some retirement pieces at the end of the year (Nadal, Thiem, Murray in depth more, etc. )
Can you expand on the part about Djokovic exhibiting a more merry-go-round takeback during 2015-2016? What do you think led to that change, how much did it really benefit his game, and ultimately why did he change back to Ferris wheel? If memory serves, Djokovic's performance that one year was one of his most dominant and capped off by his achievement of the "Nole" slam.
His backswing was lower initially and got further back, with the strings more closed. Hard to know his reasoning — perhaps it was an initial attempt to counteract faster play.
https://youtu.be/9IjJKIIwMGQ?t=277
His Ao match v Federer that year is the best I've ever seen him play off the ground.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Wkb42Ksgjg&t=503s
Those swings — especially the forehand as well — were much lower and shorter compared to, say, 2013 djokovic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-k9FMd7eGJk
Thank you for the analysis Hugh! I love your slow-mo side-by-side comparisons of groundstrokes.
I'm curious to know whether Sinner's consistent and high quality shotmaking over the past twelve months has invited you to reflect or shift your opinion at all over the biomechanical noisiness of merry-go-round vs ferris wheel groundstrokes.
It's possible I'm also misunderstanding your viewpoint as I'm a bit of a tennis newbie. Would appreciate your thoughts on this!
Yes absolutely. Sinner showing that he is having no issues with lower, more merry-go-round takebacks, although he still has a lot of wrist extension on the forehand which is another feature of great forehands. His running forehand where he steps across with the left leg is probably the best in the world now. I still think his backhand is less well-suited to changing direction compared to the djokovic push version. Perhaps it's time for an update to the death of a forehand series with some new thoughts
Oh I'd love a detailed update to that series. I bet your readers would too. I imagine there's a strong temptation to hold fast to publicly declared written opinions, so it would be a rare pleasure to read an analyst reflecting on / refining their views as new information comes in.
Wonderful analysis. You mention the Olympics - for me, who is a loooong way from being a Novak fan, the OG final was the best match of the year in terms of brilliant strategy and tactics: in those tiebreaks Djokovic *knew* “if I play it there, he will hit it there, and that will give me *this* chance.” It was the best execution of a plan I think I’ve ever seen; you could put it on a par with Ashe v Connors at Wimbledon 75 in terms of outthinking the opponent.
I haven't watched any Connors v Ashe but you're right - tactically the Olympics final was great from both!
Arthur Ashe was a big game player - big serve, forehand, backhand. (For the day.). Jimmy was the Djokovic of the time - the best returner, who fed off the other person’s pace and redirected it and hung in there. He crushed Rosewall in Wimbledon 74 and everyone expected the same v Ashe.
But Ashe had a game plan: soft stuff. Slices. Wimbledon grass had a lower bounce then and he came out hitting slice serves and junk that drove Connors mad - especially to his low forehand, which was always a weakness. Occasionally he’d throw in a fast serve to surprise Connors. It was a huge upset. Four sets, done.
low and slow to connors would have taken away all his ability to hit hard and redirect pace; he was so flat and punchy off both sides.
It is something how Sinner has the "shot quality" best forehand and backhand on Tour. I loved how you pointed out that point "where Sinner absolutely torches it. It is not even that far from Djokovic". I kinda of gasped that point when I was watching this Final. It's reminds me somewhat of a Federer injection of pace forehand. This video game ping pong version of tennis that Sinner plays is awesome inspiring. And on top of that, he has the Federer on court disposition out there. Nothing rattles him, he just has a very calm court confidence out there.
Where do you tell your charge to hit against him? Such a tough player to tactically approach now. This is why "data" isn't all that useful; almost doesn't matter if you don't have the level on the bread-and-butter four patterns like the top dogs.
The match vs Machac, a splendid example of this. Machac played great, a great mover with great shots off both sides. He reminds me movement wise of Misolav Mecir, The Big Cat. Yet he had really no avenue to a win.
Agree on Novak maybe playing a little too passive and through the middle, which allowed for some Sinner run arounds and overall a negative BH trade, but isn’t the fact that Djokovic now seems to need a super agressive baseline strategy (ideally in very fast conditions) to get a rally advantage worrying ?
The no-break-points in 6 sets stat is kinda telling of that rally advantage switching to Sinner, and at no point did I feel today that Sinner was particularly pushed today. He had control especially in the 2nd set. And it’s not just Sinner : to beat Alcaraz at Olympics, Novak didn’t produce a single break either but managed, in a BO3 format that helps that, to serve his way to two breakers where he worked his technical magic with some clutch running FHs, and by targetting that same Alcaraz’s running FH.
Today, he also managed to get to a breaker thanks to great serving, but then not only was the « tactical path » less clear than at Olympics as Sinner doesn’t have the same running FH « weakness », he was also betrayed by his own (a net error which felt like he couldn’t push off his right leg), and a longer rally where he just ended up late to a middle ball which Sinner put away easy.
And then Sinner ran away in the second. A scenario that Djokovic inflicted upon so many opponents, Sinner included. He had many circonstances going against him this season, but maybe it’s time to definitely say Sinner and Alcaraz have taken over as the guys with close-to-perfection technique for modern era and giant athleticism, with Novak having too much step(s) and fitness to make his technical gap to them shine like he did in most of 2023.
It is worrying, especially for BO5 formats. Not going to write him off yet, but age is really against him now, and Sinner and Alcaraz are coming into their own.
Thanks for this analysis! I'd only seen the highlights. Just watching service, it seemed to me Sinner began well, hit the gas toward the end of the first set, and continued to apply power until the end. His service was so highly calibrated. Which is perhaps a silly thing to say about tennis at this level but there didn't seem to be any dip in his subsequent service, either in accuracy or speed. Sinner stayed within the envelope beautifully.
Serve is so good now. Movement is so good. Shots have always been there.