One of the things I was pleasantly surprised about, was Jannik going 20 winners + Forced errors and only 8 unforced errors in the 5th set. So far in his career, he has always performed worse than the Tour Average in serve, return and rally metrics in deciding sets. Not yesterday. Biggest match of his career and he delivered.
A quite stunning rise, very reminiscent of Stan Wawrinka in 2013-14.
I would add Zverev to the list of titel winners this year, his tennis has been getting better and better since he came back from his injury. It also looks like his forehand was a bit more modern this tournament and less NextGen.
Hi Hugh, what a thrilling final and couldn't wait for this analysis to come out - terrific as always!
A couple clarifications on technical points if you don't mind:
- On the backhand elements of "long inside backswing, the deep left elbow breaking the plane of his body, the locked wrist follow-through", should the left elbow be turning that far to break the plane of the body, as opposed to staying in line? Also how elevated should the left elbow be from the body? In the GIF, Medvedev's looks quite high but I don't know if that's just unique to his style.
- For the forehand, what do you mean by "found his front leg on the forehand" for Sinner? My understanding is that the force on the shot is generated by loading and pushing off the back leg.
If we look at a lot of backhands — Safin, Zverev, Davydenko, young Nadal, Medvedev, Rune — they break the plane with the left elbow. It's an indicator of swing length (a long swing) which I like, because the 2HBH is not a forehand; you can't keep it on the outside and develop as much racquet speed with the flip (because the second hand on the top half of the handle reduces the degrees by which the racquet can lag), so you need swing LENGTH to develop swing speed. The heigh of the backswing I am not really concerned with; Zverev gets very high. Davydenko and Sinner stay low (maybe this saves them time and allows them to play earlier).
- Sinner gets on his front foot (his left foot) very often on the forehand — more than most players. When you get on the left leg it stabilizes your hip and shoulder rotation; it's harder to pull off the shot, so you can drive it a little easier and direct it a little easier, in my opinion. Back leg forehand drives get their power by rotating the body, but front leg forehands can get more body weight through the shot - similar to how a 2HBH can step in and use their body weight to drive a backhand
So impressed with Daniil. Even if it was partially circumstantial (fatigue), that aggressive adjustment really unsettled Jannik for the 1st 2 sets because he couldn't manage to repeat the patterns that had worked at the end of last year. Rallying more narrowly BH to BH vs Daniil's more reserved position had allowed Jannik to stay on top of the baseline comfortably vs a loopier trajectory, without being bullied by corner to corner trades. It allowed him to play high-margin off BHs when changing – the shortness of which, on those and the subsequent FH pick-ups down the line, meant he could get the ball to drop on Daniil to very limiting contact points.
But Daniil suffocating Jannik, taking away so much time, and his early cuts leading to a much more piercing and flatter trajectory meant he could rush Jannik, keeps things towards the corners, and be on top of that pattern. Whenever Jannik was changing direction, it was always very vertical and had a lot less safety built in, all of which were more punishingly countered because Daniil was closer in and therefore able to take a cut at the peak of the bounce rather than the death of it.
No doubt Jannik wasn't at his very best in those early stages (weight of movement, or lack thereof, into returns showed that much alone), and Jannik did well to navigate his way out – eventually landing those heavy blows with the constant sucker punches dtl using lots of margin – but I never even expected it to be on Daniil's racket like it was. Really encouraging implementation of a less than usual style for him.
Also, I didn't know about the extent of the grip stuff, so that's cool to learn 👌
Yeah Daniil was phenomenal. Did everything he needed to. Feel like Sinner has really figured him out now that he used the deep return position on second; will be interesting to see what happens when they meet again, if these elements they each used will be employed from the start. Sinner's serve got better as he went on and it was so clutch all tournament, probably still the biggest factor in why he is winning these close battles now.
Absolutely. As inevitable as Daniil's dip was, both physically and on a shot-making level, so was Jannik's serve (& return) becoming significant factors again. Unbelievable steel from that shot vs Novak and plenty more of that again vs Daniil post-2nd. It really tied him over in those 3rd & 4th sets, as well, because I still don't think he yet had a full grip of the rallies (still looked like he was working his way back in), despite Daniil losing the level of potency necessary to keep doing what he had done. That much was such a difference-maker, then, given the scoreboard pressure he could apply that got the better of Daniil in those sets.
Should Medvedev tweak his grip change on return so that he is better from closer to the baseline? Seems like a pretty obvious fix, but maybe I'm missing something?
Old habits die hard, especially grip change ones. It's weird to me that he does a flip considering how conservative his forehand grip is. But yeah, it would be something to consider if he wanted to continually improve this aspect perhaps.
I was told a very long time ago that one should never expect to change a man. Daniil has had a long and established career, so my guess is that if it could happen, it would have happened.
Great analysis as always! I wonder if Med has the desire to play like he did the first two sets going forward. He'll be on the court less, I imagine...which was a big reason why he lost this time.
In years past, the finals I dreaded most were the Novak vs Andy matches... So many neutral rallies. With the new crop of players, I don't really see this to the same degree; somebody is going to hammer a ball down the line. Is it that the kids have less patience? Is it the short attention span by way of the Internet/smartphones? Whatever the reason, I'm happier to see these mega powerful rallies between the likes of Jannik and Daniil, and Carlos, too. And thanks to Father Time, Novak really doesn't do prolonged rallies anymore, either...
I think it's the lighter frames. They can play further up and generate a lot of spin because the frames are lighter. (Just a hunch). Plus they have grown up with poly strings from day 1, so they have been rewarded with more swing speed = better shots their whole careers. I don't think it was like that pre-poly as much.
Great analysis as always, and think this match would have went Medvedev’s way had he not died out, but a tournament is more than a match long and Sinner deserves it for handling the whole thing better. Hope the offensive intents and deep return fix are not short lived for Medvedev, he’ll likely need them especially against Novak and Alcaraz (I feel like he can get away with his slow burning pressure style against Sinner when in full form, but his return position still a problem)
Two other guys I wouldn’t rule out for big silverwares are Rune: his AO campaign stopped on a below average serve day and against a great cazaux, but he’ll have plenty of time to get form and keep building his identity until the French comes around, and then we’ll be able to see if he made a fitness leap.
And as much as I don’t want to see it happening, Zverev has now lowered the toss which drastically reduced his DF numbers, and his elbow seems lower on the FH, so maybe he has entered the technically clean enough to win a slam group (I don’t know, his FH still went away in the fifth against Meddy, kind of a truth teller)
I like Rune, but he still has a way to go to find a clear playstyle; in big moments of a slam any hesitation or lack of clarity there will show up I think.
Zverev has definitely improved the serve and it showed this tournament; unbelievable performance. The forehand will always be a question mark for me given it's still flexed and outside. I don't think he gets nearly enough head speed or from inside the ball enough to generate his own pace, or handle the tight situations that inevitably lower racquet head speed. But we will see. Serving like that will give him plenty of opportunities for sure.
Sinner often steps onto his left leg before hitting the shot, rather than using more of a semi-open/open stance where the player drives off the right leg.
One of the things I was pleasantly surprised about, was Jannik going 20 winners + Forced errors and only 8 unforced errors in the 5th set. So far in his career, he has always performed worse than the Tour Average in serve, return and rally metrics in deciding sets. Not yesterday. Biggest match of his career and he delivered.
A quite stunning rise, very reminiscent of Stan Wawrinka in 2013-14.
I would add Zverev to the list of titel winners this year, his tennis has been getting better and better since he came back from his injury. It also looks like his forehand was a bit more modern this tournament and less NextGen.
Hi Hugh, what a thrilling final and couldn't wait for this analysis to come out - terrific as always!
A couple clarifications on technical points if you don't mind:
- On the backhand elements of "long inside backswing, the deep left elbow breaking the plane of his body, the locked wrist follow-through", should the left elbow be turning that far to break the plane of the body, as opposed to staying in line? Also how elevated should the left elbow be from the body? In the GIF, Medvedev's looks quite high but I don't know if that's just unique to his style.
- For the forehand, what do you mean by "found his front leg on the forehand" for Sinner? My understanding is that the force on the shot is generated by loading and pushing off the back leg.
If we look at a lot of backhands — Safin, Zverev, Davydenko, young Nadal, Medvedev, Rune — they break the plane with the left elbow. It's an indicator of swing length (a long swing) which I like, because the 2HBH is not a forehand; you can't keep it on the outside and develop as much racquet speed with the flip (because the second hand on the top half of the handle reduces the degrees by which the racquet can lag), so you need swing LENGTH to develop swing speed. The heigh of the backswing I am not really concerned with; Zverev gets very high. Davydenko and Sinner stay low (maybe this saves them time and allows them to play earlier).
- Sinner gets on his front foot (his left foot) very often on the forehand — more than most players. When you get on the left leg it stabilizes your hip and shoulder rotation; it's harder to pull off the shot, so you can drive it a little easier and direct it a little easier, in my opinion. Back leg forehand drives get their power by rotating the body, but front leg forehands can get more body weight through the shot - similar to how a 2HBH can step in and use their body weight to drive a backhand
So impressed with Daniil. Even if it was partially circumstantial (fatigue), that aggressive adjustment really unsettled Jannik for the 1st 2 sets because he couldn't manage to repeat the patterns that had worked at the end of last year. Rallying more narrowly BH to BH vs Daniil's more reserved position had allowed Jannik to stay on top of the baseline comfortably vs a loopier trajectory, without being bullied by corner to corner trades. It allowed him to play high-margin off BHs when changing – the shortness of which, on those and the subsequent FH pick-ups down the line, meant he could get the ball to drop on Daniil to very limiting contact points.
But Daniil suffocating Jannik, taking away so much time, and his early cuts leading to a much more piercing and flatter trajectory meant he could rush Jannik, keeps things towards the corners, and be on top of that pattern. Whenever Jannik was changing direction, it was always very vertical and had a lot less safety built in, all of which were more punishingly countered because Daniil was closer in and therefore able to take a cut at the peak of the bounce rather than the death of it.
No doubt Jannik wasn't at his very best in those early stages (weight of movement, or lack thereof, into returns showed that much alone), and Jannik did well to navigate his way out – eventually landing those heavy blows with the constant sucker punches dtl using lots of margin – but I never even expected it to be on Daniil's racket like it was. Really encouraging implementation of a less than usual style for him.
Also, I didn't know about the extent of the grip stuff, so that's cool to learn 👌
Yeah Daniil was phenomenal. Did everything he needed to. Feel like Sinner has really figured him out now that he used the deep return position on second; will be interesting to see what happens when they meet again, if these elements they each used will be employed from the start. Sinner's serve got better as he went on and it was so clutch all tournament, probably still the biggest factor in why he is winning these close battles now.
Absolutely. As inevitable as Daniil's dip was, both physically and on a shot-making level, so was Jannik's serve (& return) becoming significant factors again. Unbelievable steel from that shot vs Novak and plenty more of that again vs Daniil post-2nd. It really tied him over in those 3rd & 4th sets, as well, because I still don't think he yet had a full grip of the rallies (still looked like he was working his way back in), despite Daniil losing the level of potency necessary to keep doing what he had done. That much was such a difference-maker, then, given the scoreboard pressure he could apply that got the better of Daniil in those sets.
Should Medvedev tweak his grip change on return so that he is better from closer to the baseline? Seems like a pretty obvious fix, but maybe I'm missing something?
Old habits die hard, especially grip change ones. It's weird to me that he does a flip considering how conservative his forehand grip is. But yeah, it would be something to consider if he wanted to continually improve this aspect perhaps.
I was told a very long time ago that one should never expect to change a man. Daniil has had a long and established career, so my guess is that if it could happen, it would have happened.
Great analysis as always! I wonder if Med has the desire to play like he did the first two sets going forward. He'll be on the court less, I imagine...which was a big reason why he lost this time.
In years past, the finals I dreaded most were the Novak vs Andy matches... So many neutral rallies. With the new crop of players, I don't really see this to the same degree; somebody is going to hammer a ball down the line. Is it that the kids have less patience? Is it the short attention span by way of the Internet/smartphones? Whatever the reason, I'm happier to see these mega powerful rallies between the likes of Jannik and Daniil, and Carlos, too. And thanks to Father Time, Novak really doesn't do prolonged rallies anymore, either...
I think it's the lighter frames. They can play further up and generate a lot of spin because the frames are lighter. (Just a hunch). Plus they have grown up with poly strings from day 1, so they have been rewarded with more swing speed = better shots their whole careers. I don't think it was like that pre-poly as much.
Great analysis as always!
I was pleasantly surprised when I tuned into the match and saw Medvedev returning from a visible part of the court (until that game at 3-3 0-30).
excellent write up, thank you
Hi Hugh,
Great analysis as always, and think this match would have went Medvedev’s way had he not died out, but a tournament is more than a match long and Sinner deserves it for handling the whole thing better. Hope the offensive intents and deep return fix are not short lived for Medvedev, he’ll likely need them especially against Novak and Alcaraz (I feel like he can get away with his slow burning pressure style against Sinner when in full form, but his return position still a problem)
Two other guys I wouldn’t rule out for big silverwares are Rune: his AO campaign stopped on a below average serve day and against a great cazaux, but he’ll have plenty of time to get form and keep building his identity until the French comes around, and then we’ll be able to see if he made a fitness leap.
And as much as I don’t want to see it happening, Zverev has now lowered the toss which drastically reduced his DF numbers, and his elbow seems lower on the FH, so maybe he has entered the technically clean enough to win a slam group (I don’t know, his FH still went away in the fifth against Meddy, kind of a truth teller)
I like Rune, but he still has a way to go to find a clear playstyle; in big moments of a slam any hesitation or lack of clarity there will show up I think.
Zverev has definitely improved the serve and it showed this tournament; unbelievable performance. The forehand will always be a question mark for me given it's still flexed and outside. I don't think he gets nearly enough head speed or from inside the ball enough to generate his own pace, or handle the tight situations that inevitably lower racquet head speed. But we will see. Serving like that will give him plenty of opportunities for sure.
I didn't understand your comment about finding the front foot on the forehand. Is this the semi-open stance?
Sinner often steps onto his left leg before hitting the shot, rather than using more of a semi-open/open stance where the player drives off the right leg.
See this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YvfrBcJ9oNA
True but only now is he moving in to the baseline... maybe one would follow the other?