What really surprised me watching the match was Draper's strategy to attack Rune's forehand instead of putting the opponent's backhand under pressure, as you would expect in a "lefty vs righty" match. What are your thoughts on this tactic? I feel it came a bit short in this article, because it's so unusual, in my opinion. Apart from that, highest quality as always.
Well I think it's because Rune's backhand is one of the best at handling and rallying a heavy ball, and his forehand is definitely liable to lacking timing, especially when he's just trying to use a 70% rally ball. I've always thought Rune's forehand is good at the extremes: he can play it slow on clay and he can play it very hard and fast, and I think his results reflect that (good runs on some of the slowest surfaces like Monte Carlo, but also finals in Basel/Brisbane etc). Draper has always preferred his backhand since his junior days — his great forehand is a recent phenomenon I believe circa last 12-18 months — means he is pretty comfortable trading backhands with a righty's forehand. Draper is like Rafa (actually right handed, but plays lefty).
According to the sword and shield analogy, it is most likely better and rewarding to break the sword when you can.
Since even the most benign forehand yields more winners than the best backhand, with a better in-play % (cf the Tennis Insights shared on the last articles), neutralizing it makes the opponent much less dangerous (basically earning points by counterpunching a bit).
It is the same with Zverev or with Hurkackz, once you break their FH, they are much less of a cornundrum to beat.
I just reminded Pete Sampras' book (A Champion's mind) where he explains some tactical quirks he had.
One of his regret for example was not having served on Agassi's forehand on AO 95 second set point.
He explains that while the percentage play is obviously to aim the weaker wing, one important point, there's nothing better to win a point out of the stronger wing to break the opponent's will.
Hence, very often he harvested aces on 2nd serve by aiming the forehand (like on match point at Wimbledon final in 1999).
Since Sampras was usually the better player, he found this tactic very effective.
Nothing better to subjugate mentally your foe that shattering to pieces his core assumptions.
That's a great point, and I think we've seen Djokovic and Federer do that at times also in the rally; take on other opponents' forehands in a bid to crush them mentally. Off the top of my head I'm thinking the Tsitsipas Djokovic match at AO may have had a bit of that early on. Alcaraz v Djokovic at the French open also
Yeah I think it is a problem in certain situations. He needs to develop the ability to have a really solid rally ball. He has the extremes: can loop and redirect slowly and take it early doing so even, and he can unload on it even at end-range.
Agreed Rune's performance was underwhelming and the forehand didn't work much.
As you said, his FH on the rise which had worked good all week was turned into a problem by Jack's FH heaviness or raw pace off the BH, but even when he had a manageable to work with and had his legs on point (those few inside outs you mentioned), the lack of security/spin margin he puts on those shots too often came back to bite him.
That's the eternal question regarding Rune, which you put well when questioning his transitions from 0 to 100 speed : I think his agressive game works better than most players would with similar decision-making, his FH being suited for early ball-striking, especially in those slower courts where he has more time to get the left-hand and footwork timing right. But still, it lacks margin and it doesn't really allow him to leverage his athleticisim to the fullest extent.
When he goes to counter-punching mode, it can become more passive trading with lower pace/RPMs. This was evident in his return strategy, especially on second serves : when he was standing too close Draper found ways to jam him and punish the positionning, but the few times he dropped further back, it lacked any juice.
To me, his best is still a blend of the two : a baseline position in between what Kyrgios does and what Medvedev does, where he has time to react to incoming serves, and then go on trading in a patient, yet not passive, way. Whenever a short ball presents, he can step in and kill it, and he can also inject pace. That's what I think he did great in both the Tsitsipas and Medvedev match (against Daniil he was even more passive but I think that was the point and he played it tactically as sound as ever). I think his FH is capable of that.
Against Draper, with less obvious weaknesses to exploit (especially given his red hot form) and maybe taken by the occasion, he didn't really replicate that balance that also saw him beat Jack in Cincinnati.
But still, all in all a positive week for Holger, which saw him break 36% of the time (before the final so it must have gone down to 32-33 I guess), which is an insane jump from the very mediocre numbers he's put up in the last 52 weeks. But I don't think such jump is a result of a purple patch : it was mostly a good tactical week in favorable conditions. So it's replicable.
What are your thoughts on Rune going into clay/rest of the season?
Rune also had to make a massive adjustment in the type of ball, from Med's right-handed and flat/slow ball, to Draper's lefty and kicking heavier ball. Surely made it more difficult.
I think Rune needs to develop a heavier, spin-oriented forehand for when he wants to trade in rallies. It's often too flat and without any margin. I'm still bullish Rune on clay. It's his best surface and this is a good dose of confidence injected right before we get there
Curiously, clay is his best surface despite the fact his rally ball can lack depth/pace/spin. I think just like here in Indian Wells, the extra time suits him well. He can go with the same aggressive intents and have better timing because as you said when he's well set he can do damage, and when he counterpunches he also sort of has more time to hit quality and is just very difficult to put away.
I'm really looking forward to seeing how he goes with his tactical balance. As I said, I'd like the sort of not Medvedev - not Kyrgios thing we saw more of this week.
I am also interested in Hugh's thoughts on Rune's tactics re: passivity versus aggression. With the aggressive baseliners I work with, I'm a big advocate for swapping intensity/tactics/whatever you wanna call it midpoint, particularly against a less aggressive opponent; staying patient and very high percentage until you get a shorter/lower quality ball you can go really big on.
Rune doesn't seem to do very well in changing tactics midpoint like that? He's either grinding it out/counterpunching like versus Medvedev or he's hyper aggressive, or just getting frustrated and swinging as hard as he can in a bad spot.
yeah and I think it's related to his short swing; makes generating a heavy rally ball hard in my opinion. It's such a compact stroke that it's great when rushed or taking the ball super early, and when he has plenty of time to get his legs set he can generate a lot of speed, but when he's slightly out of position and needing to hit a qualtiy ball back, I think it lacks the speed to create a quality rally ball. He ends up guiding it and often replying weakly
Great article again hugh anyway you never fail to deliver with your in depth analysis lmao:))
Draper has shown insane level of tennis this tournament and I clearly think it wasnt a one shot tournament where everything overheat...The guy has shown great consistancy over the past 6 months with some spectacular results in US swing, Vienna and the start of 2025!
However i would really like to have your opinion on his match vs Alcaraz...The loss itself isnt what suprise me the most it's more how the beatdown was! Alcaraz looked not like him and i would be lying if i say i don't have any concerns! what are you thoughts on alcaraz shape rn ? do you expect a bounceback at miami or another upset ? We clearly see alcaraz serve is not helping AT ALL its the main weakness at the moment....
Obviously carlos 2025 start of the year isnt terrible but for a player like him we can have higher expectations ! miami draw is out tonight i hope for a "easy run" cause i feel winning miami would be great confindence boost which i think he lacks
Carlos has a great Miami draw in his quarter I think. Dimitrov not playing at the same level as last year. Alcaraz played a poor match against Draper and he admitted so himself.
Great article. I see a lot of the points you brought up in previous articles about the extended wrist setup helping Draper get pace and RPM.
Why do you think Draper was making himself cross-eyed? Maybe there is some realization about ball-tracking there.
Also, what do you think Rune’s game plan should have been against Draper to give him a fighting chance? Agreed that Rune’s forehand seems too compact and underpowered. Has to be a better strategy against the high kicking lefty ball. But seems execution focused—Rune’s balls simply aren’t landing deep enough to take court positioning away from Draper.
I think Rune started with going to the forehand, and then pivoted to rallying the backhand more, which I think was a good adjustment, but Draper just found too many big serves and quality balls even in that pattern. The serve was ridiculous really. Snuffed out a lot of half-chances that Rune created, and one break can turn a match like that but Rune never got it. Plus, Rune just didn't play well. Lacked big serves, quality returns, or big shots on big points.
I remember after Michael Campbell won the (golf) U.S. Open at Pinehurst in 2005, he mentioned all week he had been practicing focusing on a tee (or something like that) as he brought it towards his eyes (until he was cross-eyed, I would presume). Some kind of eye focusing technique, that obviously worked for him that week.
Hey Hugh, I love reading your posts but often find I don't have time to read all of them, as reading requires complete devotion of attention.... It would be absolutely amazing if you somehow started a podcast on these posts, me and presumably many others would be able to listen while completing tasks in the background, and not miss out on your amazing stuff
Hi Alex. Thanks for the idea mate. I think the hardest part is that it is tough to convey the visuals/graphics/technical breakdowns of shots sometimes via a podcast, but I could certainly experiment with it
Yeah, makes sense. I imagine it would also probably take a lot of time and be a big investment. Maybe if you did a short catch up podcast sort of thing in addition to each post or something? Still, I'm not you and I definitely have no idea how hard it is to do what you do, and your posts are great, so I guess just do whatever and I'll keep reading for sure.
Tough to say. Traditionally it's always difficult to back up a deep Indian Wells run, but he's in great form, so it just depends how much that fortnight took out of him emotionally as well.
I’m curious what you think of Drapers backhand technically. It’s short, compact, and flat, but I can see it struggle generating pace against heavy balls (alcaraz, ruud?, clay courters)?
I really like it. Quiet mechanics. I like a lefty with a flat backhand because taking it crosscourt goes fast and low into the righty's forehand, and I think that shot can extract a lot of errors from guys, especially in quicker conditions. He can take it so early so I don't think he will have problems against a heavy ball. Plus, he's a natural right hander like Nadal, so that top hand is very intuitive
Are forehand inside-in and inside-out shots considered in shot direction statistics? And if they are then am I right that inside-out is considered as line and inside-in as cross?
Sorry Prahlad, I've found out now that hawkeye classifies inside-out as a crosscourt forehand, and inside-in as a line forehand. so the direction relative to the court is what matters.
That rally extract where Draper switches to hit the fh inside-in winner is really interesting, because there's no obvious difference in the flight or width of Rune's ball when Draper suddenly does the three steps to the side to take the forehand. Which implies to me he was waiting to see if Rune would keep going there, and decided if so he'd make the switch to hit the forehand. The footwork is fascinating too: backhand, two hops back; backhand, two hops back; three steps right, forehand.
Re Alcaraz, I wonder if he is starting to feel the pressure of his past achievements. When you're the new kid, you can win and it's great! But when people are asking you about a three-peat, you start to feel the weight of expectations, and then the ghost of your past brilliant self is everywhere you go. One hopes his team can help him adjust to that.
What really surprised me watching the match was Draper's strategy to attack Rune's forehand instead of putting the opponent's backhand under pressure, as you would expect in a "lefty vs righty" match. What are your thoughts on this tactic? I feel it came a bit short in this article, because it's so unusual, in my opinion. Apart from that, highest quality as always.
Well I think it's because Rune's backhand is one of the best at handling and rallying a heavy ball, and his forehand is definitely liable to lacking timing, especially when he's just trying to use a 70% rally ball. I've always thought Rune's forehand is good at the extremes: he can play it slow on clay and he can play it very hard and fast, and I think his results reflect that (good runs on some of the slowest surfaces like Monte Carlo, but also finals in Basel/Brisbane etc). Draper has always preferred his backhand since his junior days — his great forehand is a recent phenomenon I believe circa last 12-18 months — means he is pretty comfortable trading backhands with a righty's forehand. Draper is like Rafa (actually right handed, but plays lefty).
According to the sword and shield analogy, it is most likely better and rewarding to break the sword when you can.
Since even the most benign forehand yields more winners than the best backhand, with a better in-play % (cf the Tennis Insights shared on the last articles), neutralizing it makes the opponent much less dangerous (basically earning points by counterpunching a bit).
It is the same with Zverev or with Hurkackz, once you break their FH, they are much less of a cornundrum to beat.
Yeah absolutely. The risk is always that the opponent's forehand will hurt you if you don't go there with enough quality. That's the tradeoff I guess.
I just reminded Pete Sampras' book (A Champion's mind) where he explains some tactical quirks he had.
One of his regret for example was not having served on Agassi's forehand on AO 95 second set point.
He explains that while the percentage play is obviously to aim the weaker wing, one important point, there's nothing better to win a point out of the stronger wing to break the opponent's will.
Hence, very often he harvested aces on 2nd serve by aiming the forehand (like on match point at Wimbledon final in 1999).
Since Sampras was usually the better player, he found this tactic very effective.
Nothing better to subjugate mentally your foe that shattering to pieces his core assumptions.
That's a great point, and I think we've seen Djokovic and Federer do that at times also in the rally; take on other opponents' forehands in a bid to crush them mentally. Off the top of my head I'm thinking the Tsitsipas Djokovic match at AO may have had a bit of that early on. Alcaraz v Djokovic at the French open also
Hello Hugh, excellent article once again. In your opinion, how much of a problem is Rune's forehand and will it limit him in his career?
Yeah I think it is a problem in certain situations. He needs to develop the ability to have a really solid rally ball. He has the extremes: can loop and redirect slowly and take it early doing so even, and he can unload on it even at end-range.
Agreed Rune's performance was underwhelming and the forehand didn't work much.
As you said, his FH on the rise which had worked good all week was turned into a problem by Jack's FH heaviness or raw pace off the BH, but even when he had a manageable to work with and had his legs on point (those few inside outs you mentioned), the lack of security/spin margin he puts on those shots too often came back to bite him.
That's the eternal question regarding Rune, which you put well when questioning his transitions from 0 to 100 speed : I think his agressive game works better than most players would with similar decision-making, his FH being suited for early ball-striking, especially in those slower courts where he has more time to get the left-hand and footwork timing right. But still, it lacks margin and it doesn't really allow him to leverage his athleticisim to the fullest extent.
When he goes to counter-punching mode, it can become more passive trading with lower pace/RPMs. This was evident in his return strategy, especially on second serves : when he was standing too close Draper found ways to jam him and punish the positionning, but the few times he dropped further back, it lacked any juice.
To me, his best is still a blend of the two : a baseline position in between what Kyrgios does and what Medvedev does, where he has time to react to incoming serves, and then go on trading in a patient, yet not passive, way. Whenever a short ball presents, he can step in and kill it, and he can also inject pace. That's what I think he did great in both the Tsitsipas and Medvedev match (against Daniil he was even more passive but I think that was the point and he played it tactically as sound as ever). I think his FH is capable of that.
Against Draper, with less obvious weaknesses to exploit (especially given his red hot form) and maybe taken by the occasion, he didn't really replicate that balance that also saw him beat Jack in Cincinnati.
But still, all in all a positive week for Holger, which saw him break 36% of the time (before the final so it must have gone down to 32-33 I guess), which is an insane jump from the very mediocre numbers he's put up in the last 52 weeks. But I don't think such jump is a result of a purple patch : it was mostly a good tactical week in favorable conditions. So it's replicable.
What are your thoughts on Rune going into clay/rest of the season?
Rune also had to make a massive adjustment in the type of ball, from Med's right-handed and flat/slow ball, to Draper's lefty and kicking heavier ball. Surely made it more difficult.
I think Rune needs to develop a heavier, spin-oriented forehand for when he wants to trade in rallies. It's often too flat and without any margin. I'm still bullish Rune on clay. It's his best surface and this is a good dose of confidence injected right before we get there
Curiously, clay is his best surface despite the fact his rally ball can lack depth/pace/spin. I think just like here in Indian Wells, the extra time suits him well. He can go with the same aggressive intents and have better timing because as you said when he's well set he can do damage, and when he counterpunches he also sort of has more time to hit quality and is just very difficult to put away.
I'm really looking forward to seeing how he goes with his tactical balance. As I said, I'd like the sort of not Medvedev - not Kyrgios thing we saw more of this week.
I am also interested in Hugh's thoughts on Rune's tactics re: passivity versus aggression. With the aggressive baseliners I work with, I'm a big advocate for swapping intensity/tactics/whatever you wanna call it midpoint, particularly against a less aggressive opponent; staying patient and very high percentage until you get a shorter/lower quality ball you can go really big on.
Rune doesn't seem to do very well in changing tactics midpoint like that? He's either grinding it out/counterpunching like versus Medvedev or he's hyper aggressive, or just getting frustrated and swinging as hard as he can in a bad spot.
yeah and I think it's related to his short swing; makes generating a heavy rally ball hard in my opinion. It's such a compact stroke that it's great when rushed or taking the ball super early, and when he has plenty of time to get his legs set he can generate a lot of speed, but when he's slightly out of position and needing to hit a qualtiy ball back, I think it lacks the speed to create a quality rally ball. He ends up guiding it and often replying weakly
Great article again hugh anyway you never fail to deliver with your in depth analysis lmao:))
Draper has shown insane level of tennis this tournament and I clearly think it wasnt a one shot tournament where everything overheat...The guy has shown great consistancy over the past 6 months with some spectacular results in US swing, Vienna and the start of 2025!
However i would really like to have your opinion on his match vs Alcaraz...The loss itself isnt what suprise me the most it's more how the beatdown was! Alcaraz looked not like him and i would be lying if i say i don't have any concerns! what are you thoughts on alcaraz shape rn ? do you expect a bounceback at miami or another upset ? We clearly see alcaraz serve is not helping AT ALL its the main weakness at the moment....
Obviously carlos 2025 start of the year isnt terrible but for a player like him we can have higher expectations ! miami draw is out tonight i hope for a "easy run" cause i feel winning miami would be great confindence boost which i think he lacks
Carlos has a great Miami draw in his quarter I think. Dimitrov not playing at the same level as last year. Alcaraz played a poor match against Draper and he admitted so himself.
His forehand was Rafa like as you pointed out. The rpm's on his forehand are like body blows.
Great article. I see a lot of the points you brought up in previous articles about the extended wrist setup helping Draper get pace and RPM.
Why do you think Draper was making himself cross-eyed? Maybe there is some realization about ball-tracking there.
Also, what do you think Rune’s game plan should have been against Draper to give him a fighting chance? Agreed that Rune’s forehand seems too compact and underpowered. Has to be a better strategy against the high kicking lefty ball. But seems execution focused—Rune’s balls simply aren’t landing deep enough to take court positioning away from Draper.
I think Rune started with going to the forehand, and then pivoted to rallying the backhand more, which I think was a good adjustment, but Draper just found too many big serves and quality balls even in that pattern. The serve was ridiculous really. Snuffed out a lot of half-chances that Rune created, and one break can turn a match like that but Rune never got it. Plus, Rune just didn't play well. Lacked big serves, quality returns, or big shots on big points.
I remember after Michael Campbell won the (golf) U.S. Open at Pinehurst in 2005, he mentioned all week he had been practicing focusing on a tee (or something like that) as he brought it towards his eyes (until he was cross-eyed, I would presume). Some kind of eye focusing technique, that obviously worked for him that week.
Hey Hugh, I love reading your posts but often find I don't have time to read all of them, as reading requires complete devotion of attention.... It would be absolutely amazing if you somehow started a podcast on these posts, me and presumably many others would be able to listen while completing tasks in the background, and not miss out on your amazing stuff
Hi Alex. Thanks for the idea mate. I think the hardest part is that it is tough to convey the visuals/graphics/technical breakdowns of shots sometimes via a podcast, but I could certainly experiment with it
Yeah, makes sense. I imagine it would also probably take a lot of time and be a big investment. Maybe if you did a short catch up podcast sort of thing in addition to each post or something? Still, I'm not you and I definitely have no idea how hard it is to do what you do, and your posts are great, so I guess just do whatever and I'll keep reading for sure.
Great article! How do you think Draper will fair in Miami? Interesting draw
Tough to say. Traditionally it's always difficult to back up a deep Indian Wells run, but he's in great form, so it just depends how much that fortnight took out of him emotionally as well.
I’m curious what you think of Drapers backhand technically. It’s short, compact, and flat, but I can see it struggle generating pace against heavy balls (alcaraz, ruud?, clay courters)?
I really like it. Quiet mechanics. I like a lefty with a flat backhand because taking it crosscourt goes fast and low into the righty's forehand, and I think that shot can extract a lot of errors from guys, especially in quicker conditions. He can take it so early so I don't think he will have problems against a heavy ball. Plus, he's a natural right hander like Nadal, so that top hand is very intuitive
Are forehand inside-in and inside-out shots considered in shot direction statistics? And if they are then am I right that inside-out is considered as line and inside-in as cross?
that's a great question and for some reason I never thought of that. I'll do some digging and get back to you. Your hunch would be my guess also.
Sorry Prahlad, I've found out now that hawkeye classifies inside-out as a crosscourt forehand, and inside-in as a line forehand. so the direction relative to the court is what matters.
I think it is as you say. So Draper's run around forehands that he hit inside-in (technically a linear, down-the-line shot) get counted as crosscourt
That rally extract where Draper switches to hit the fh inside-in winner is really interesting, because there's no obvious difference in the flight or width of Rune's ball when Draper suddenly does the three steps to the side to take the forehand. Which implies to me he was waiting to see if Rune would keep going there, and decided if so he'd make the switch to hit the forehand. The footwork is fascinating too: backhand, two hops back; backhand, two hops back; three steps right, forehand.
Re Alcaraz, I wonder if he is starting to feel the pressure of his past achievements. When you're the new kid, you can win and it's great! But when people are asking you about a three-peat, you start to feel the weight of expectations, and then the ghost of your past brilliant self is everywhere you go. One hopes his team can help him adjust to that.
excellent post Hugh! thanks very much for this