Player Spotlight: Denis Shapovalov

Much has been expected of Denis Shapovalov ever since he burst onto the scene in 2017 at the Canadian Open. In front of a packed home crowd, the then 18-year old defeated Rafael Nadal in an awesome display of fearless hitting. Since then, the awesome power has often been interlaced with erratic performances; double faults, missed returns, and a lack of variety have made consistent results hard to come by. He has one title to his name—an ATP 250 in Stockholm from 2019—from three ATP 250 final appearances. He is 0/10 in semi-final matches from ATP 500, 1000, and Grand Slam matches. Furthermore, it is not unusual for the world number 14 to lose in first and second rounds against opponents ranked much lower (e.g., Shapovalov’s two most recent losses have been to players ranked 61 and 137¹. Last year, after his semi-final run to Wimbledon, he lost to the 249th ranked player, Vit Kopriva, in his very next tournament).

However, his performances in Dubai this week have highlighted a shift in his game; Shapovalov made a concerted effort to chip lots of first-serve returns back. This has been a work in progress for some time, but only recently has he started to look convincing, and to my eyes, he is starting to play a lot like a certain Swiss player who had grand slam success in the past decade.

Observe how often Wawrinka chipped the first serve return back in to play against Djokovic. Done effectively, it allowed Wawrinka to ‘work’ his way into points, something that was almost foreign to the hyper-aggressive Shapovalov until recently. On the second serve, Shapovalov and Wawrinka are similar in that they usually (Stan still chipped a lot up in the court) drop deep behind the baseline and take full cuts off both wings. It’s a style that earned Wawrinka three slams from three finals against Big 3 members. In an era where ‘serve plus one’ players are a dying breed² the chip return is one of the most underrated shots; few players are prepared to serve and volley and ‘punish’ players for chipping returns, and even fewer are adept at it³. Until they are, the return strategy of blocking back 1st serves is a feature, not a bug.

I tracked Shapovalov’s match against Berankis in the quarterfinals of Dubai. Here are his return choices:

Berankis played very well off the ground in this match. In fact, Shapovalov’s chip return did not trouble him at all for much of it, but there were two moments where it won Shapovaolov crucial points. The first did not happen until Berankis was serving 6-4 down in the first set tie-breaker. Shapovalov chipped a first-serve off his backhand deep middle, and Berankis pulled his forehand wide. It was the first one he had missed all set. The second occurred at 1-2 30-30 in the second set. Berankis served and Shapovalov only managed a short but relatively wide backhand chip to Berankis’ forehand, which he again pulled wide. Shapovalov broke the next point. From 37 first-serve return points Shapovalov chose to chip 23 of them, and of those 23 he made 14. Not a great conversion rate against an average server, but it was enough on the day and I think it is a shot he is improving. If we look at Shapovalov’s end of 2021 and start of 2022 return performance on hard courts, we can see that he is starting to make inroads in more return games this year.

His 25% 1st serve return points won at the end of 2021 would put him at 65th on the 52-week ATP performance ladder alongside Dominik Koepfer. His 28% in 2022 would earn him the 41st spot with Taylor Fritz. (Hardcourt events only).

Djokovic and Nadal lead the pack with 35.3% and 34% respectively. The two most successful young players, Medvedev and Zverev, won 31.8% and 30.7% respectively. His fellow top one-handed young gun, Stefanos Tsitsipas, posted 30%. His return performances against Opelka and Zverev at the Australian Open this year were standout performances in terms of blunting big serves.

Shapovalov also made a coaching change at the start of the year, teaming up with Jamie Delgado. I’d wager he would know a thing or two about great returning having coached Andy Murray from 2016 until the end of last year. So far the trend is promising. If Shapovalov can get that number to 30%, he will soon be joining the top 10 once more and may start fulfilling his teenage promise.

1. Rinderknech (now 53) and Lehecka (now 92) are sure to rise and are by no means bad losses.

2. Many players today have a style that is built around consistency from the back (the top 3 of Djokovic, Medveded, and Zverev play this style) rather than a game built around the forehand (Federer, Nadal, Rublev). The chip return works great against the top 3 who lack the forehand weapon of a Federer, Nadal, Berrettini etc., who are lethal from all areas of the court if you give them time.

3. Evans, Lopez and Cressy come to mind as players who venture forward often off their serve.