Player Spotlight: Carlos Alcaraz

Big 3 territory-playing style-ranking projection

For the current top-10, Carlos Alcaraz is a problem. At just 18¹ the young Spaniard is torching the tour with a degree of moxie not seen since Rafa himself burst onto the scene in the mid-2000s. A quick list of his recent achievements:

• Youngest ever US Open quarterfinalist in the Open Era.

• Youngest ever winner of an ATP 500 (Rio, February 2022).

• Second youngest Indian Wells semifinalist (March 2022) behind Agassi.

Already inside the top-20, Alcaraz is 12-2 on the year, his only losses coming at the hands of Berrettini (in a fifth-set tiebreaker at this year’s Australian Open, and Rafael Nadal at IW—another final-set thriller). With ‘only’ 1447 points to defend for the remainder of the 2022 season, a top-5 finish to the year is not out of the question if he keeps playing like this.² Up 7-5 4-0 against Monfils in the fourth round, a commentator said it well, “yeah, he’s (Monfils) been tenderized.”

A look at Alcaraz’s current Elo rating has him already playing top-5 ball and sitting in Big-4 territory for his age.³

Only the teenage phenom Nadal had a higher Elo at the same age.

When watching Alcaraz play you get a sense his game resembles certain aspects of Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic; that he occupies some middle ground of a Venn diagram of the Big-3. For starters, Alcaraz sees his style in the mold of Federer:

"I think my playing style is reminiscent of Roger Federer's... I love to be aggressive and I like to come to the net to close the point."

Alcaraz has an ability to inject pace into the forehand that reminds me of Gonzalez or Blake, and he can step inside and take it early ala Federer, but the best part of his forehand is his ability to marry it with perfectly executed drop shots. At 18 he already has incredible court awareness and uses the drop shot to great effect against players hanging deep in the court. Then there are his defensive capabilities; I think it’s fair to say that the fastest player on tour is not Monfils, De Minaur, or Djokovic. It’s Alcaraz. The kid is everywhere. And like his Spanish idol, at end-range there is interest on that ball. Cameron Norrie had this to say on Alcaraz’s speed following his quarterfinal loss:

“he’s so talented with the foot positioning and the way he slides and trusts it, four or five shots you think it’s done but he’s getting it back and putting it in an awkward position. For me, I’d put him right next to Demon (De Minaur) in the speed category…but he’s a little more explosive than those guys.”

I’ve written a lot about the forehand in recent articles, and it’s fair to say that Alcaraz is one of the few young guns who is hitting his forehand with a technique similar to past greats. Although he starts with a somewhat ‘nextgen’ inverted racquet head (racquet tip pointed towards opponent), the racquet tip gets to high noon before he looks to unwind, and his wrist is slightly extended, which is in line with Nadal, Djokovic, and Federer’s. Perhaps in the coming years Alcaraz may make a Thiem-like forehand adjustment that further shortens the take-back and allows him to take the ball even earlier.

Alcaraz’s forehand set-up mirrors past greats.

He also does an excellent job uncoiling on his forehand. Although he’s only 6’1’’, he hits that forehand like a Tyson hook, driving his legs and rotating his whole torso into the shot with wicked speed. It’s pretty awesome to see a smaller player crack it like that when so many of the players today are much taller (Zverev, Medvedev etc.) and who seem to move and swing like cranes, producing power and covering the court with the inevitable physics of their long levers.

While his serve may be the weakest part of his game, he is routinely hitting his first serve in the mid-130mph range this week in Indian Wells. His first-serve percentage ended up hurting him in yesterday’s loss to Nadal, but if he starts finding his spots at that speed he is going to be very difficult to break. His tactics against Nadal were straight out of the Djokovic playbook—take the backhand hard into Nadal’s forehand and then look for his own forehand. It almost came off in the end, and I’d say the match was decided at 3-3 30-30 in the final set when Rafa made a few ridiculous reflex volleys at the net to hold serve. Coming into the clay swing, that forehand drop-shot combo is going to pay plenty of bills on the dirt. Currently sitting at 16 in the live ATP rankings, Alcaraz could still climb quite a way in 2022 if he keeps up this level of play.

At the start of the year Alcaraz said the goal he and his coach, Juan Carlos Ferrero, had mapped out was a top-15 finish to the year. It’s only March and he is about to cross that threshold should he have a good showing in Miami next week. Based on the way he is playing, I imagine a top-10 finish is very likely, with a top-5 finish possible should he qualify and do some damage at a World Tour Finals appearance. I’m bullish on this latter possibility given his ability to play equally well on hard and clay, and a top-16 seeding at Wimbledon will help him avoid players like Medvedev, whom he encountered in the second-round last year. If I had to guess how the top-10 finish this year, I think it might look something like this:

I’m bullish on Alcaraz and Sinner leading the youngsters this year. Both are putting up very strong return numbers while they are still improving their serves, both excel on hard and clay, and both have sound compact strokes off both wings. Berrettini is probably the biggest loser this year for me; he has a lot of points to defend coming into the French Open and grass season, and although he has already notched a semi-final appearance at this year’s Australian Open, he has struggled for form and fitness since. Ruud is another player who has amassed plenty of points at smaller 250 events, but I’m not sure he has the game to go deep in a slam yet except for Roland Garros. I expect a flattening of the points curve with many young players on the rise and playing strong: Fritz, Norrie, Opelka, Korda, Paul, and Brooksby to name a few. Then there is the long-awaited return of Dominic Thiem heading into the clay season. He has the game to stop anyone’s tournament on his day.

Next week the tour lands in Miami for the second part of the Sunshine Double. Alcaraz lost in the first round last year to another youngster I’m bullish on, Emil Ruusuvori. With his current form, I think there’s a good chance he takes another leap in the rankings.

*RBA = Roberto Bautista Agut.

1. Alcaraz turns 19 on May 5th.

2. Alcaraz has 807 points to defend until the US Open.

3. An Elo rating takes into account who you play, rather than the round or tournament in which you play them. Not all draws are created equal. Data from Tennis Abstract.