Miami Open Men's Draw
Past winners—conditions—predictions
The Miami Masters 1000 gets underway on Wednesday. Nadal will not compete this year and newly-crowned Indian Wells champion Taylor Fritz is carrying an ankle injury. For the second year in a row, Miami will go ahead without any member of the Big-3, leaving the draw wide open.
The court in Miami tends to be a tad faster compared to Indian Wells, with a Court Pace Index (CPI) Rating averaging ~ 31 for the past few years1. However, the Miami Masters moved from Crandon Park to Hard Rock stadium in 2019, and produced the fastest Miami court in recent years. Miami aims to produce an ‘ITF 3 Medium’ paced court, with a CPI between 35-39, something that they managed to achieve in 2019 (CPI of 36.5). I’m banking on 2022 to produce similar speeds. Another notable difference is the ball sponsor. Whereas Penn sponsors Indian Wells—a heavy and fluffy ball that slows down—the Miami Masters uses a Dunlop Tour ball which is a little faster and not as fuzzy. The other factor is the weather; players swap the dry desert for the humid tropics that often feature wind and showers. Locals tend to do well, or suffer less, depending how brutal conditions are.
Here’s a look at quarterfinal appearances from the six most recent Miami Masters.
Completing the ‘Sunshine Double’ (winning both Indian Wells and Miami in the same year) is a tough ask and has only been done by Federer and Djokovic.2 I’m not expecting Fritz to go close to backing up here, and the current draw is wide open for many in-form and dangerous players.
First Quarter
Top Seed: Medvedev leads the field again, however, I think his game is much more suited to the Miami conditions compared to Indian Wells. The balls and court will play a little faster and won’t spin and bounce too much. He’ll get plenty of purchase with his flat deep groundies and will be fresh after an early loss last week. He shouldn’t have too much trouble navigating the early rounds. RBA or Brooksby might be a stern fourth-round opponent. SEMIFINALS.
Hurkacz is the defending champion and loves playing in Florida (2 titles from 2 attempts: Miami and Delray Beach) and has a decent enough draw. Shapovalov looms as a potential big fourth-round match. FOURTH-ROUND
Young Guns: Brooksby (9-3) is in this quarter and has been hard to stop this year. He has the game style to upset RBA and Medvedev here. Shapovalov (12-6) made the semis here three years ago and has shown some tactical changes that have helped him on return. Shapovalov to make the QFs.
Dark Horse: I don’t think there is much of a bogeyman in this quarter. Rinderknech has had decent runs in Adelaide and Qatar and Murray has been based in Miami for much of his career, but I’m not sure he has the form or fitness to take out Medvedev at the moment.
QF Prediction: Medvedev v Shapovalov
Second Quarter
Top Seed: Tsitsipas has been solid without being great this year. A possible second-round with JJ Wolf would be a tough opening match (Wolf has gone 11-3 in the last month alone including Challengers and qualifying). I think Wolf or De Minaur may take out the Greek in the SECOND or THIRD round.
Auger Aliassime rounds out the top half of the draw in a section stacked with in-form and dangerous players. Van De Zandschulp (9-6), Paul (12-6), Bonzi (8-6), Khachanov (11-7), Korda (6-4), Fokina (4-7), Sock (3-3) and Kecmanovic (13-6) could all win this section. I think FAA might lose to Sock early on here. SECOND ROUND.
Young Guns: I’m picking the teen phenom Alcaraz to be hard to stop again this week. He’s just playing on another level of intensity and class at the moment and was unlucky to not get the better of Rafa last week. SEMIFINALS.
Dark Horse: JJ Wolf, Van De Zandschulp, and Sock could all go deep in this section.
QF Prediction: Alcaraz v Khachanov
Third Quarter
Top Seed: Rublev has been on a tear but I wonder how tired he must be, plus Kyrgios is a potential second-round player that I think will take him out. SECOND ROUND.
Berrettini will be tough to stop here if he is fit. Tiafoe may be a tough third-round match. Opelka in a fourth I think will stop him. THIRD/FOURTH ROUND.
Young Guns: Sinner is still only 20 and a finalist here last year. I think he has a tough first round but could go deep again if healthy. SEMIFINALS.
Dark Horse: Kyrgios. Cressy.
QF Prediction: Sinner v Opelka
Fourth Quarter
Top Seed: Zverev will be looking to get his season back on track after a disastrous month. All four losses this year have come to in-form players, but none were top-10. I think he is still too good not to make the QUARTERFINALS here with this draw.
Ruud has continued to prove his clay-court credentials with a title in Buenos Aires last month, but on hard I think he struggles to make the adjustment against the top players. I think Isner may stop him in the FOURTH ROUND.
Young Guns: Jack Draper has won 3 Challengers already this year. I think he may push Norrie in the second round and could even upset the top Brit.
Dark Horse: Kokkinakis has eased through qualifying again and will be dangerous on a quicker court with Aussie Open balls. Millman is another Aussie who has found some match-toughness in the last month and won’t be fazed at all with the tough conditions. Both will take some stopping in the early rounds. McDonald is another player I am tipping to enjoy this court and may find himself with a chance against Dimitrov should they meet.
QF Prediction: Isner v Zverev
SEMIFINALS
Medvedev v Alcaraz
Sinner v Isner
The 2021 CPI I have not been able to find but I would assume it lies in the 35-40 range.
Of active players only.