Men's Wimbledon Final Preview
Nick Kyrgios will take on Novak Djokovic for the Wimbledon title on Sunday. Kyrgios leads their H2H 2-0, with both matches played during the hardcourt swing of 2017 when Djokovic was working his way back from an elbow injury. Here are my keys to the match.
Djokovic
There’s not a lot I will say here. Everyone knows his game so well. He’s going to make a lot of returns and a lot of balls that most players simply don’t make. He has seemed to play with more pressure and nerves this tournament, perhaps knowing that Nadal sits on 22 slams—two ahead of Djokovic—whilst his opportunities to play slams are reduced based on his vaccination status. Nerves aside, he’s proven to be the best player of the past decade and I think he will show that again tomorrow. Here are my keys to the match for Djokovic
Extend the rallies. Keeping the ball deep middle is what Djokovic excels at. He wants to make the exchanges as ‘boring’ as possible. Don’t give Nick angle or reason to create something. He will bleed errors, you just have to ride the chaotic wave.
First-serve percentage. Kind of an obvious one, but especially against Nick. If you can keep him quiet on return games he will feel the pressure that little bit more on serve. The game tomorrow is about suppressing Nick’s chances to create something. Clinical, efficient tennis is exactly what Novak is known for. Tomorrow he must stick to it relentlessly.
Kyrgios
An article in the Sydney Morning Herald today noted the words a Nike scout wrote down after first seeing a 15-year-old Kyrgios back in 2010:
“Unbelievable talent. Ridiculously fast arm. Out of shape. Big mouth.”
The description mostly holds, although Kyrgios has shed the puppy fat. Check out a 14-year-old Kyrgios from 2009:
Two things that stuck out for me here. Firstly, Kyrgios was quite a big kid, and his movement was awful, to put it bluntly. But, this lack of movement forced him to take an aggressive mindset; throughout his entire developmental years the young Canberra kid would have been trying to melt first-serves and forehands, and along with his simple bunt backhand, he’s developed one of the most instinctive and dangerous offensive games in tennis, especially for the lawns of Wimbledon. Just as Massu forced Thiem’s swing shorter by taking time away, nature forced Kyrgios to develop an offensive game by taking away his movement. The second thing that struck me was the forehand technique. In the video above, Kyrgios’ forehand uses more of a traditional loop in the backswing; there isn’t nearly the same lively wrist action or nextgen lag we see in his current forehand. Puberty was kind to Nick, and he developed an incredibly fast arm.
We also know that Kyrgios uses a very light frame by pro standards: a Yonex ai98. He apparently adds a leather grip, but that’s it. No lead or anything. Bone dry.1 It’s a tweener frame. As I’ve theorized in Death of a Forehand - Part I, when you give great athletes a light stick, they are going to get away with a whippy swing, and a whippy swing they will probably gravitate towards; it gives them huge spin and power at a time of development where they crave testing their limits and aren’t exposed to huge servers.
The downsides are numerous; it forces a player to use a lighter frame (you can’t ‘whip’ a hammer stick like Djokovic’s I suspect), it’s harder to block returns (mishits are punished), and it’s overall a noisier swing. Whilst I’ve been vocal of my preference for the modern forehand, if there is one player who can get away with this technique, it’s Nick Kyrgios. He is blessed with the fastest arm in the game, and on top of that he has great feel. There’s no one else playing with that arm speed (perhaps Sock is close) and the last guy who had it was Andy Roddick. But to have the feel as well is incredibly rare (Roddick will be the first to admit he didn’t have good hands) and it’s why the arc of Kyrgios’ wasted career has been frustrating for a lot of fans; he was a genuine once-in-a-generation talent that could have been great.
“When tennis players say they admire another player’s great “feel” they are likely admiring his pre-impact racquet control that manifests itself in precisely adjusted ball speed and spin off the racquet.”2
Tomorrow he gets a chance to etch his name in history. Here’s what I think he must do:
Serve above 70% first-serves. He needs free points, otherwise the pressure is going to be too much over five-sets. It’s a tall ask, but he just needs to get hot with the serve.
Take chances on return. Make it messy and don’t give Novak too much rhythm. He needs to involve the crowd and create that electric atmosphere he thrives in.
Win the first set. Djokovic is the greatest front-runner tennis has seen, and he wins >95% of matches when he wins the first set. Kyrgios needs to keep it close early on. Keep Novak nervous.
It will be interesting to see how animated Kyrgios is in a Wimbledon final. He thrives when there is animosity and a crazy atmosphere. The fact that he is chummy with Djokovic now hurts his chances, I think, when he needs to be more ruthless than ever. Win the first set, win the crowd.
Let’s hope both men bring their best.
Reported swingweight of 323.
From Duane’s Biomechanical Principles of Tennis Technique (p. 34).