Indian Wells Predictions Part II
The first three rounds have highlighted how unique Indian Wells is for a hard court event: desert air, slow courts, fluffy balls. The court is slow but on a hot day it’s quite bouncy and lends itself to tall servers who can get the ball moving.
My initial quarterfinal predictions were:
1st: Alcaraz v Khachanov
2nd: Opelka v Sinner
3rd: Auger Aliassime v Fritz
4th: Rublev v Schwartzman
Khachanov (lost to Brooksby), Auger Aliassime (lost to Van De Zandschulp), and Schwartzman (lost to Isner) are out, but the remaining five are all in round-of-16 action tomorrow.
Alcaraz v Monfils. The young Spaniard destroyed RBA for the loss of just two games yesterday and is now 11-1 on the season with an ATP 500 title under his belt. His Elo rating (2067.5) has him pinned in the top-5 already and I am picking him to go all the way this week.1 Although Monfils got the better of Medvedev, the Russian isn’t suited to the slower and bouncy hard courts, however, Monfils is in great form and will take some stopping. Alcaraz in 3.
Norrie v Brooksby. Last year’s surprise champion marches on. The bookies have this as an even contest and I think it will be a long and grueling match given it’s the last night match scheduled and both players like to use their opponent’s pace. At home and with youth on his side, I’m backing a late-night win by Brooksby in 3.
Nadal v Opelka. Nadal was 5-2 down in the third of his opening round encounter against Korda but found a way through as he so often does. I always like a match-hardened player midway through a draw, but as I said in my initial preview I think Nadal will taste defeat here and it could happen tomorrow. Opelka has quietly charged inside the top-20, and although he labels himself a ‘servebot’, I think he has the belief and groundstrokes to nab a big win tomorrow. The bounce he has managed to get on serve this week is ridiculous. A day match should see more of the same. Opelka in 2.
Opelka’s serve and Rafa’s forehand will be brutal tomorrow. 4. Sinner v Kyrgios. The Australian has been impressive in his three opening matches for a man who barely seems to play anymore. A serious test awaits in Sinner, who came through a tough three-set match against Bonzi. Tomorrow’s hot and dry conditions favour Kyrgios for me; his forehand is great up high and his serve will pick up some zip, whereas Sinner likes it on his hip with a bit of time. Is it enough to get him over the line? I’m not sure. Sinner in 2.
5. Berrettini v Kecmanovic. Berrettini has been incredibly consistent for the past 12 months. When your bread and butter ‘serve + 1’ is as big and solid as the Italian’s it tends to work well no matter the surface. He has struggled with fitness in patches, and although I think this court suits his game, I think Kecmanovic may get a huge win tomorrow. The Serb has had a bit of luck this year (Australian Open draw) and will be feeling confident after a strong start to the year. Kecmanovic in 3.
6. Fritz v De Minaur. Fritz is in career-best form and De Minaur is coming back into form. This court should suit the heavy-hitting Fritz, however, playing first at 11 a.m. tomorrow the big question will be how fresh his legs are after a near 3-hour battle with Munar. De Minaur will make things tough with his speed, but if Fritz recovers he should win this. Fritz in 2.
7. Rublev v Hurkacz. The Russian was on a tear coming into IW with back-to-back titles and has now posted two straight-set wins in the desert. Hurkacz is a dangerous player, however, Rublev’s form and confidence has me backing the Russian for his 11th win in a row tomorrow. Rublev in 2.
8. Dimitrov v Isner. Both men have capitalized on Djokovic’s section and now find themselves with a great chance at a quarterfinal. Isner made the final here ten years ago and I think this one will come down to a couple of points in a few tie-breakers. Dimitrov has made his way through the draw with no-fuss and his athleticism and intangibles might be the deciding factor here. Dimitrov in 2.
I’m backing Alcaraz to make the final from the top half. Rublev to make the final from the bottom half.
For reference, at 18 years and 10 months Nadal’s elo was ~2138, Djokovic ~1890, Federer ~1775. Elo ratings factor in opponent strength, not just wins.