Fonseca vs Tien - NextGen Finals

forecourt precision — chip returns — power vs control

Joao Fonseca defeated Learner Tien 2-4 4-3 4-0 4-2 in the final of the Nextgen ATP Finals on Sunday. The Brazilian becomes the third 18-year-old to win the event. The other two? Jannik Sinner (2019) and Carlos Alcaraz (2021).

First set

Fonseca started their round robin clash 4-0 4-0 on Thursday, dominating the smaller American with his firepower, but Tien started the freer of the two on Sunday, breaking a nervous Fonseca in his opening service game, and showcasing his measured hitting from the forecourt:

Tien’s groundstrokes have the aesthetic simplicity and functional accuracy of a classic bolt-action rifle. The forehand is textbook modern and he can flatten the ball well with that longer backswing and quiet wrist. His precision from the forecourt was impressive early on.

Extended wrist, upright racquet head.

wide and deep into the Fonseca forehand. The best way to neutralise an opponent’s strength is to attack it yourself.

“I’ve been so impressed all week with how well he [Tien] spreads the play. He doesn’t hit many balls in the middle. Every shot has got a purpose and he uses width fantastically well.”

— Tennis TV Comms

Tien took the opener 4-2 with Fonseca yet to fire off the ground.

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Second set

This was my first time watching Tien for a full match, and overall I get the impression he has a very good handle on the game tactically for a 19-year-old. He blocks returns and does well to work his way into points. His swinging lefty serve — while underpowered — moves through the air to stretch opponents and set up his measured plus ones. It’s kind of a “death by a thousand paper cuts” style, and I mean that in the most complementary way.

I mean, this serve is 165km/h. People can throw a ball faster than that, but it’s accurate and sliding, and then his plus-one forehand is rally ball speed but so accurate. Fonseca was splitting for the cross-court.

It’s not the fastest serve, but Tien uses his left-handed advantage well to stretch the right hander and get them taking a hand off their backhands.

Through the first 36 minutes the stats read nine forehand winners for Tien to Fonseca’s zero.

But if Tien’s forehand is akin to some classic bolt-action rifle, Fonseca’s is in that Sinner/Alcaraz category of being in an entire different class of weapons. Off a more compact swing since his junior days, the string-bed is whiplashed violently before an incendiary meeting with the tennis ball.

Fonseca’s forehand fired from here on in. That’s a very respectable chip return from Tien considering the scoreline, but Fonseca just melted this no pace ball.

I get Alcaraz/Sinner/Tsitsipas vibes.

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Third set

Tien’s usual consistency dropped way off in this set, and Fonseca kept humming the forehand. The American was lucky to get a point.

12 minutes of carnage. Putting the fast in Fast4.

Fourth set

Tien regrouped early in the fourth, with this point showcasing the skills of both.

There’s that sneaky 162km/h slider. Tien could serve-volley more off that. Fonseca does well to flip from defense to offense with his line forehand, but Tien has great feel and keeps the slice low/that’s a gem of a forehand pick-up. Every shot in this rally is excellent.

But Fonseca was still holding with ease, the powerful serve and plus-one forehand making light work of Tien’s blue-collar returns.

At 2-2 Tien went up 30-0 before Fonseca showcased the skillset that will make him a threat against anyone.

Again a pretty respectable ball from Tien, but Fonseca’s backhand is a flat laser that can go both ways.

Fonseca’s backhand struck again at 30-15 and he earned a break point that was snuffed out by more Tien precision. If the lines were painted a little thicker this kid could play in the white:

That is Djokovic-esque precision from Tien with each groundstroke here.

But Fonseca, who chipped the return with impressive feel at 2-2, just has too much game from too many locations. Tien didn’t do anything wrong, per say, to get broken. This was an instance of strategy succumbing to supremacy.

Two metres behind the baseline just crushing it from both sides. Strategy is somewhat powerless when your opponent can torch the ball like this.

Full turn, upright racquet head.

Fonseca has bread-and-butter excellence — the forehand and backhand are just so good — and it’s going to make ascending the rankings a smoother exercise than most. It reminded me of some excerpts from Mark Petchey’s interview with Gill Gross when discussing his prior coaching role with Andy Murray and what separated him from the Big-3 (emphasis added):

There were three other guys out there that were unbelievably good and for him to beat those over five sets — which is a massive difference than three and I think we don't make that distinction — is that as much we talk about the physical, it's actually more about the tennis, the shot making, it's the ability to win points over five sets, not just the ability to be able to last the marathon from a running POV, you've actually gotta hit more winners, or make them miss more, the strategic elements of a five-set match are just on a whole different scale to a best of three.”

“this is just my opinion but tennis is an incredibly complicated sport and the one way you can make it easier is just be better than you opponent, is just to not have to worry about the Galaxy of data, the ‘do they serve 72% of the time out wide on the Ad-court on a break point?” …if you can be better than 95% of the top 100 every time you step on the court it's a lot easier to play this game and it's a lot less stressful and that's my philosophy.”

Speaking of data, the Brazilian’s forehand is going to be a problem for the tour.

Overall, I think Tien is going to have a very fruitful career with a lot of time inside the top-50, maybe even top-20 if he can improve the power.

For Fonseca there is no ‘if’. There is only when. The quality of his ball-striking, the technique off the ground, the improved serve throughout 2024.

A future number 1? I think so.

Happy holidays to all. I’ll see you in the comments. HC.